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ALDS Primer: Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Prediction

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Let’s face the facts. This series is going to a handful for these Boston Red Sox.

The Houston Astros are leading in almost every offensive statistic. Some notable ones include runs scored and overall batting average. Boston is behind by 24 points in the average category. The other terrifying number about this upcoming series is the cumulative numbers of runs scored for each club. Houston scored a total of 896 all season, while Boston is limping in with 785.

The pitching staff is going to need to be phenomenal and lights out to tame the opposition, and the offense is going to have to step-up and be aggressive.

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As a whole, the pitching has struggled big time against the heavy-hitting offense of Houston. Seven runs of the total 35 earned during 2017 were allowed by Rick Porcello, and another five from Eduardo Rodriguez. One of these two are probable to get a spot in the rotation, but either way, it seems like a lose-lose situation if you go off out what history says.

As for the ALDS, nothing will be spoon-fed to either team. Everyone is going to have to earn what they get. Here is how I have this series going: Houston wins in four.

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The starting pitching is sufficient enough to win, and same with the Astros. But, it’s all just the matter of the offense and bullpen, and the Sox offense have struggled with consistency all season.

Boston is batting just .204 against the Astros arms, but they have a .289 average against Boston. There is also a 13-point run differential in games when these teams play in favor of the Astros.

Respective Game 1 and 2 starters, Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz, are expected to have solid outings as their prior numbers against this team are rather impressive.

Screenshot 2017-10-03 at 11.40.45 PM.png

Sale Career vs. Houston (Above)

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Pomeranz 2017 vs. Houston (Below)

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They have been receiving about 5.8 runs of support in each of their starts during the 2017 campaign. That looks pretty solid. But they are both unlikely to go the distance in any games until the later rounds (depending if they make it) due to the circumstances of this being an early round. This means the bullpen will have to help a great deal. But the bullpen hasn’t been dominant against Houston.

Blaine Boyer allowed four runs in just 1.2 innings. Matt Barnes allowed three in four innings. Fernando Abad and Brandon Workman both have two runs allowed in under two innings each.

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