With the regular season nearly over, the concrete of the playoffs is beginning to be poured. Through 13 weeks, only the Saints have clinched a spot in the playoffs, but six teams can punch their ticket in Week 14. Elimination scenarios are plentiful as seven teams could see their playoff hopes dashed this week. Any eliminated teams would join these six eliminated teams: the Dolphins, Bengals, Cardinals, Giants, Lions, and Falcons.
Note: The tiers have different names than the midseason edition, but the idea is the same.
Tier 6 | Eliminated (6): Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons
Better luck next season.
Tier 5 | Week 14 could eliminate them (7): Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins
Barring a miracle of all miracles, all seven of these teams will be eliminated from playoff contention in the next two weeks. Better luck next season.
Tier 4 | Practically eliminated (4): Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders
To make the playoffs, these teams would have to win out and get plenty of help. According to FiveThirtyEight, none of these teams have higher than an 11 percent chance at the playoffs.
Tier 3 | Dead upon arrival in the playoffs (2): Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers
Put down your pitchforks, Green Bay. The Packers have one gigantic flaw: the defense. While they have forced sacks and turnovers, any decent offense can move the ball with ease on the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, but it will almost certainly be a defensive train wreck when Green Bay gets to January football.
On the other hand, the Steelers have an abysmal offense. While they are far from a lock to make the playoffs, they have an easier path than the Titans do. With all due respect to Pittsburgh’s stellar defense, I trust Ryan Tannehill more than Devlin Hodges, and I think the Titans could ride Derrick Henry to more success than the Steelers could hope for.
Tier 2.5 | If (and it is a big if) they make the playoffs, they have a path to victory (4): Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Tennessee Titans
The Cowboys and Eagles are linked here. The winner of the NFC East gets a leg up on the NFC because they host a playoff game. Dallas and Philly have strong offensive lines and good skill players on offense. Dallas might have the advantage with Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper compared to Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders, but the Eagles have a game-wrecker on defense in the form of Fletcher Cox. From top to bottom, the Cowboys have better defensive personnel with Pro Bowl-caliber players on all three levels, but the Eagles have a coaching advantage. In terms of quarterback play, Carson Wentz has a higher ceiling, but Dak Prescott is unlikely to lose the Cowboys a playoff game.
The Rams are behind the eight-ball in terms of making the playoffs. They would need a collapse from the Vikings and a hot December. The Rams have one major advantage over the other contenders: they made the Super Bowl in 2018. The Rams have an uphill fight, but they have shown that they can win in January. I can see a scenario in which the Rams go to Green Bay in the wild card round and move the ball enough to secure a win. Beyond that game, the Rams would likely travel to San Francisco, Seattle, or New Orleans. San Francisco and Seattle are familiar opponents, and the Rams have won the last two over the Saints. It is unlikely, but the Rams have the talent to pull off a miracle run.
I know what you are saying. “The Titans?!” My answer is yes. Tennessee has finally figured out how to win games with an efficient passing game and strong rushing attack with Derrick Henry. The defense plays at a high level, and the offense can limit turnovers and score efficiently. The Titans have a tough stretch before the playoffs, so they are not a guarantee to make the playoffs, but they could make noise. Their likely matchups would be in Houston or Kansas City. The Titans defeated the Chiefs earlier in the season, and they would have to beat the Texans at least once to make the playoffs. Neither matchup is easy, but the Titans could pull a stunning upset before a trip to Baltimore, Buffalo, or New England. The Titans would prefer to avoid Baltimore, but Buffalo and New England could be taken advantage of.
Tier 2 | I do not trust them to consistently win games in January (3): Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills
Kirk Cousins is infamous for his failures in primetime and playoff games. He is the major reason as to why I am hesitant to proclaim the Vikings as a serious title contender. The defense has slipped in recent weeks, but the Vikings have a glut of talent on offense with the likes of Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings need to win the division for me to trust them any more than I do now.
Deshaun Watson is unbelievable. DeAndre Hopkins is insane. Outside of that, what else do the Texans offer? They have a solid but not great roster, and I think Bill O’Brien would be the worst coach in the playoffs. The defense is not particularly awe-inspiring, but they do have wins over the Patriots and Chiefs, so the Texans could slip into receiving a first-round bye. They are a tough out with Watson and Hopkins, but I do not expect this unit to reel off multiple wins in the playoffs.
The Bills are one year ahead of schedule. Josh Allen and Devin Singletary are dynamic, but they still have room to grow. The defense has been fantastic in 2019, and the defense would keep the Bills in their potential playoff matchups, but I do not think they have the offensive firepower to outduel the likes of Baltimore, Kansas City, or Houston if necessary.
Tier 1 | Super Bowl or bust (6): New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers
Drews Brees is playing well. The defense is playing well. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara might be the best running back-wide receiver duo in the NFL. The Saints have the caveat that they need to play at home, but they have a fast-track to the top seed in the NFC as they host the 49ers this week, and they have a win over the NFC’s other 10-2 team: Seattle. The New Orleans offense is slightly limited vertically, but the Saints have enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to make it to the Super Bowl 10 years removed from their lone Super Bowl appearance.
I will not count out the Patriots. The offense has been a horror show in recent weeks, but the defense and special teams units (outside of kicker) have consistently made life easier for the Patriots on offense. Tom Brady has shown his age, but he still has magical footwork in the pocket and he will still have the services of Julian Edelman, James White, and Mohamed Sanu. Sanu is the key to my belief that the Patriots are a legitimate threat to win the Super Bowl. Without Sanu, I think the Patriots would be left for dead, but the former Bengal and Falcon gives the Patriots just an extra ounce of offense that could be the difference between a loss against the Chiefs in the divisional round and a seventh Super Bowl.
The NFL’s hottest team, the Ravens, have ridden an eight-game winning streak to the top of the AFC. At home, the Ravens would be a major threat to win back-to-back games and go to their third Super Bowl. However, the Ravens have to avoid four potential land mines that could undermine a potential playoff run. Barring chaos, the Ravens have the offensive and defensive personnel to win a Super Bowl. Baltimore has a sturdy offensive line and a dominant ground game with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. The passing offense is slightly limited, but they have deep threats (Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin), intermediate threats (Willie Snead and Mark Andrews), and short threats (Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle). Defensively, the Ravens run a blitz-heavy, high-risk, high-reward system. If the Ravens can get pressure, they can beat anyone. If they cannot get pressure, the onus shifts to the secondary to make critical plays. The Ravens have coaching and special teams advantages against the majority of their potential opponents, but the “Lamar Jackson cannot beat a team the second time he plays them” mantra still exists.
Seattle lacks the ridiculous personnel of the other teams in the tier, but they do have the best quarterback: Russell Wilson. Similar to the Ravens and 49ers, the Seahawks have a well-defined personality of tough and gritty football. The Seahawks lead with the run and sprinkle in Wilson deep balls to Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Josh Gordon. Defensively, the Seahawks have two players who could single-handedly take over a playoff game in Jadeveon Clowney and Bobby Wagner. Clowney is a monster against the run, and he is a consistent presence in the face of quarterbacks. Wagner is an elite cover linebacker, and he has immense versatility against the run and the pass. The secondary has had its moments of exceptional play, but they can be inconsistent on the back end. The Seahawks have been tremendous on the road, so winning the division and securing home-field advantage is not a necessity, but it would make life easier for Pete Carroll.
If the Kansas City defense continues to play at a high level, the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. As explosive as Patrick Mahomes and the offense can be, the Chiefs need a semblance of defense to win the Super Bowl. Andy Reid could also disrupt a potential playoff run with his tendency to become too pass-heavy. The Chiefs do not have great personnel in the backfield, but abandoning the run could spell disaster for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes can keep the Chiefs in any game, but Reid, the defense, and the run game need to play a role for the Chiefs to rattle off consecutive wins.
The 49ers have an identity. They run the football, and they run it well. If the opposition commits too hard to stop the run, the likes of Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle can blow the lid off of any defense. Defensively, the 49ers are a stout bunch. The defensive line is littered with potential Pro Bowlers. Fred Warner has an argument as a top-five linebacker in 2019. Richard Sherman is still insanely good. From a coaching perspective, Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh have their units playing absurdly well. If all else fails, Jimmy Garoppolo seems to have enough moxie to be the best player on the field for a couple of drives and lead the 49ers to a victory. The 49ers are a dangerous team, and they could beat anyone in the AFC come February.
