Whenever a player is injured in any sport, the consequences ripple out beyond the player themselves to the team and all the way to betting odds, which in turn can affect thousands of people. In high-profile sports like the NBA, injuries to key players can cause really dramatic shifts in the odds. These odds can then influence betting decisions. But how large is the impact of injuries on NBA betting odds? Let’s take a look.
How are NBA betting odds set?
There’s a reason why different online sportsbook odds for the same NBA bets only have marginal differences between them: they’re based on the same data. Yes, you’ll see variations, but generally speaking, the odds are broadly the same — for instance, you won’t find point spreads with opposite favorites. This doesn’t mean you can be lax when choosing sites to bet on basketball, even marginal differences in odds can make a difference to your bankroll.
The reason for these similarities comes down to how the odds are set. The key factors when setting odds include:
- Team performance
- Past results
- Public perception
- Home or away
- Player availability/recent trades and acquisitions
- Player injuries
The impact of injuries on team performance
Aside from the immediate impact of a player being unavailable, players’ injuries have repercussions beyond their own availability. If a star player is unavailable, the entire dynamic of the team will likely change. If they’re a top scorer, the chances are good that the team won’t score as many points. If they’re a great defender, the team might go on to concede more points and so on.
With these differences, you can expect betting odds to change too. Bookmakers are quick to adapt their odds if they think the chances of winning have changed. The injuries affect more than just the game outcome, you’ll see changes in all sorts of odds, such as the point spread, moneyline and total score bets.
For example, Kristaps Porziņģis’ rare ankle injury back in June means he’s still out of the Celtics’ lineup and is predicted to be out until the end of the year. Initially, his injury didn’t have much of an impact on the odds for the NBA finals as it was being reviewed day-to-day. However, as it was made clear that the injury was more serious, the odds were adjusted.
The same happened with Celtics’ player Jaylen Brown in 2021 when Boston was seen as a serious contender for the playoff title. As soon as Brown was sidelined, the Celtics’ odds were lengthened on sportsbooks everywhere.
Changes in betting odds
Bookmakers change odds when injuries occur but there’s much more to it than shifting them a few points. The player’s importance on the team and the severity of the injury matter too. If it’s a lesser-known player with a minor injury, the odds won’t change as drastically but if it’s a star player with a serious injury, expect bigger changes. Here’s a summary of what influences these changes:
- Injury severity: More serious injuries create larger changes.
- The player’s role: Star players will have a bigger impact on the changes.
- Expected recovery time: A long recovery will mean bigger betting odds changes for a longer period of time.
- Team condition: When a team relies heavily on one particular player, that player’s injury will impact the odds more significantly.
Player opportunities
Injuries also help bettors if they’re quick to react. More experienced bettors tend to follow injury reports to help them make more accurate bets. Firstly, they boost the other team’s chances of winning, which creates potentially lucrative betting opportunities and who wouldn’t want that!
However, odds change depending on how many people are placing bets, so if there’s a sudden influx in a particular type of bet due to an injured player, the odds will change. By being quick off the mark, you can act before sportsbooks adjust the lines.
When Jaylen Brown was injured, for example, early bettors were able to place wagers before the odds adjustment occurred fully, especially as the seriousness of his injury was not immediately known. Your best chances for making the most of injuries in betting is within 24 hours of the injury occurring.
However, bettors should also bear in mind that teams have different strengths in their benches too, so some are more adept at recovering from missing players due to the team’s composition.
Betting tips for injuries
The most important betting strategy for injuries is to keep yourself informed about players’ statuses. Bettors need to monitor injury updates and reports closely. When you know the extent of an injury or their health status, you’ll have an advantage over bettors who don’t.
Here are some tips:
- Subscribe to NBA sports newsletters and sites.
- Use apps with push notifications that will inform you of injuries.
- Follow the teams’ and players’ social media accounts.
If a player is injured, some teams still perform well. So, bearing this in mind, you can place more accurate bets by studying the team’s past games when the player didn’t play, evaluating the team’s current tactics and coaching strategies, and analyzing replacement player statistics.
The impact of injuries of different bet types
Injuries affect a range of bet types. Understanding how these are affected can help you make betting decisions.
Point spreads
Injuries to key players mean you’ll see large point spread adjustments. When a defensive player or top scorer is ruled out, there’s usually a shift to reflect the reduced likelihood of the team covering.
Moneyline bets
These are also affected drastically by injuries. Moneyline bets are all about the likelihood of one team winning outright so a star player’s injury will affect these odds.
Totals (over/under)
This is another betting option that is strongly influenced by player injuries, especially for offensive and defensive players whose absence can impact the score. If a normally high-scoring player is ruled out, there’s often a decrease in the total points line. Similarly, if a defensive player is missing, you might see an increase in the over/under.
Conclusion
Injuries to NBA players are game-changing when it comes to betting odds and can sometimes be life changing to the athletes themselves. Depending on who is injured and how badly, the odds can change significantly, which impacts how bettors and bookmakers make decisions.
The best way to deal with injuries is to keep yourself informed about players’ health statuses and understand the team’s dynamics with and without them. Remember, these situations are unpredictable so it’s important to be as informed as possible without taking unnecessary betting risks.
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