In 2018, there were four teams that were unfortunate enough to claim last place in the subdivisions of the AFC: the Cincinnati Bengals in the North, the Jacksonville Jaguars in the South, the Oakland Raiders in the West, and the New York Jets in the East. Each offseason yields rosters changes that hopefully makes the idea of coming in last place yet again a bit less likely.
The offseason moves from the past few months make it a strong possibility that one of those teams might actually make the playoffs. It’s unlikely that any of them will claim their division as the AFC is riddled with strong teams, but some of them have improved enough that they might claim second in their respective division and therefore might be able to claim a Wild Card spot.
Cincinnati Bengals: If this season shakes out even remotely like last season, the odds of the Bengals making the playoffs are slim. Unfortunately, it’s not their fault. It boils down to location, location, location. They share the division with the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. The odds of the Bengals taking second are just as unlikely as the idea of them taking first. For the past few years, apart from the Browns, the AFC North has been one of the closest divisions. The problem is, the Browns might actually be good this year.
Andy Dalton has done little to inspire faith in Bengals fans in the past three seasons, and this year he is coming off a surgery to his throwing arm which is always a giant question mark. As for the rest of the division, Lamar Jackson did well enough in the games he played last year that the Ravens will start him this year. Ben Roethlisberger is definitely showing signs of slowing down, but enough to lose the division? Unlikely. Unfortunately for Bengals fans, all forecasts predict Cincinnati rounding out the rear again.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are not exactly in a great location themselves. They share a division with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers. The two teams both had a record of 12-4 last season — the best records in the AFC and the second best in the NFL. Even the addition of Antonio Brown is unlikely to be enough of a factor if Derek Carr is stilling the one throwing him the ball. Carr showed promise once but he’s throwing in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco. Unless there are some serious injuries in store for the 2019 season, its unlikely the Raiders can nab a Wild Card slot.
New York Jets: Shockingly, the Jets actually do have a strong chance of nabbing second place in their division. No, that’s not a typo. Much like everyone else on this list, location comes into play. The AFC East holds the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots. The odds of the Patriots getting a place other than first is, quite frankly, unheard of as of late. With the Dolphins parting with longtime quarterback Ryan Tannehill, it’s hard to judge exactly how much of a threat Miami will be. Buffalo’s a bit of a wild card themselves after having several up and down seasons. Nothing in their offseason changes have left teams quivering in fear, either. The Jets made some waves this offseason season signing big name players like Le’Veon Bell before firing their general manager. The fact of reality is that all odds point to the Patriots winning the division again. Miami seems to be rebuilding and Buffalo is just plain struggling, so almost by default the Jets could take second — that’s almost unthinkable.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars have the highest chance at taking second in the division they share with the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. Like most of the other teams on this list, its a matter of location. The Texans are coming off a really strong season. In fact, in Week 17 they were neck-in-neck with the Patriots for the number two seed heading into the playoffs. Deshaun Watson has really hit his stride in Texas and, barring injuries, it does not seem that it will be changing anytime soon. The Titans have been good playoff spoilers the past few seasons, but they seem to be planted firmly in the realm of mediocrity.
Even with former Ryan Tannehill joining the squad in undoubtedly a pre-emptive move to prepare the team for the next inevitable injury of Marcus Mariota, the Colts are the biggest issue for the Jaguars because they are the most evenly matched. In 2017, the Jaguars made the playoffs. Last year, despite having a similar team, they struggled. But Andrew Luck had been injured two years ago and came back strong — so strong, in fact, that after going 1-5 in the first six weeks, the remaining ten weeks featured a record of 9-1. The Jaguars have finally parted with Blake Bortles and handed the reigns to Nick Foles, which means this division is going to be one of the toughest this year. Foles has proven himself the past few years and the Jaguars have needed that extra push to get themselves into playoffs. It’s quite plausible that it could be Foles.
These are bold predictions no matter what way you slice it without having seen the teams really play together yet. Injuries haven’t occurred yet, but any way you look at it, the toughest division is shaping up to the be the South, so while the Jaguars are most likely to grab that coveted space, it’s going to be the hardest for them to get it. While the Jets have less competition with the East, its hard to imagine that the Jets could make the playoffs. The Jaguars will have to fight tooth and nail to get it, but they can do it.
