Week Six NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

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Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | October 12th, 2019

Make sure to set those alarm clocks extra early on Sunday as the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off at 9:30 AM EST from London. Not only do you need to get your fantasy lineups set but also to get in on the betting action for this game. Hopefully, if you bet the Patriots -17 on Thursday night you didn’t panic and hedge your bets after their slow start as the Patriots won 35-14. However, the original over/under was set at 43 in most spots and the over hit thanks to Tom Brady‘s second rushing touchdown of the game, which came with just under four minutes left in the contest.

To recap last week, both guys had excellent weeks. Mike went 10-4 ATS and 3-0 on his favorite bets while Gio went 11-3 ATS but just 2-1 on his favorite bets after Kyler Murray failed to score one passing touchdown, let alone the two Gio needed for the over on his prop bet. In total, both guys went 13-4 (76.5% hit rate) on their 17 bets from last week. Neither of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week six.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions.

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Jets +2.5 (in the first quarter) vs Cowboys

While I like the Jets +7 for the game, my favorite bet from this contest is the Jets +2.5 in the first quarter. The reason why is the Cowboys get off to slow starts. In their five games this season, the Cowboys are averaging four points per game in the first quarter, and have scored zero twice. Furthermore, they have only scored more than seven once and that was 10 against the awful Dolphins. With Sam Darnold returning and Le’Veon Bell projected to have a big game against a run defense that let Aaron Jones score four touchdowns last week, the Jets very well could be winning outright at the end of the first quarter, but I’ll take the 2.5 for good measure.

Gio – Seahawks -1.5 at Cleveland Browns

I’ll keep it real with you guys and stick to the full game picks. I’m not into the first quarter and first half bets like Mike. The Seahawks are winning this game easily. Russell Wilson has looked fantastic this year and Chris Carson has shined at times too. Their defense is still very good and is going up against a Browns’ offense who only scored three points last week. I see no reason for the Browns to hang around in this game.

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Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Redskins over 10.5 in the first half

The Redskins have named Case Keenum their starting quarterback for the game against the Dolphins. In the three games, Keenum has played start to finish, the Redskins are averaging 13.3 points per game in the first half despite playing a solid Cowboys defense and a dominant Bears defense. Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense is closer to a junior college squad than the Bears defense. All it takes for this number to hit is two touchdowns or a touchdown and pair of field goals. Given that the Dolphins have given up 20.5 points per game in the first half this season, the over might even hit by the end of the first quarter.

Gio – Bengals at Ravens over 48

Neither of these teams have elite defenses. Both of these teams have (at times) high-powered offenses. I expect the Ravens to win by two scores, but this could be an explosive game for both offenses. As long as Andy Dalton doesn’t have one of those occasional dud games that he has, the Bengals will be fine. As long as the Ravens don’t get the Lamar Jackson who forgot how to throw a football, they should be fine. Ravens win 38-24.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Cooper Kupp over 6.5 catches

Honestly, I’m surprised this number isn’t higher. Kupp has been killing it lately, catching 29 of his 44 targets (66%) over the last three games, catching at least nine passes in each contest. In the five games so far this season, Kupp has caught at least seven balls in four of them, while seeing at least nine targets in every game. Brandin Cooks might miss this game with a concussion and if he does, Jared Goff will lean even more on his favorite target, Kupp. If Cooks is out, combine with a strong 49ers’ run defense, Kupp could go over his 6.5 catches by the middle of the third quarter.

Gio – Kyler Murray over 1.5 passing touchdowns

I’m going to use the same exact prop bet that failed last week and hope that it succeeds this week. The Falcons’ secondary surrendered five passing touchdowns to Deshaun Watson last week, so surely Murray can get two! This game should be a high scoring shootout. Murray ends with 350 in the air, 55 on the ground, and four total touchdowns.

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