Week Five NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | October 5th, 2019

Thursday night’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks was an exciting contest, especially in the second half. Both offenses came to life with the Seahawks ultimately winning, 30-29 after Greg Zuerlein missed a game-winning field goal. If you got the Rams +1.5 you barely covered while the total of 48.5 easily went over. If half of the games on Sunday are as good as Thursday night’s, NFL and gambling fans are in for another great day of football.

To recap last week, Mike struggled once again, going 5-9 ATS and 0-3 on his favorite bets. Meanwhile, Gio was slightly better going 6-8 ATS but was once again a flawless 3-0 on his favorite bets. In total, Mike went 5-12 (29.4% hit rate) while Gio was 9-8 (52.9% hit rate) on our 17 bets from last week. However, neither of us are professional gamblers nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week five.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions.

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Raiders +3 vs Bears (in London) in the first half

Instead of a full game spread, I’m going to switch it up and take the Raiders in the first half this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raider tied or even leading entering the half but I’ll happily take the three points. Yes, this is the Khalil Mack revenge again but if Jon Gruden is half the coach he thinks he is, he won’t let Mack take over the game. I expect plenty of double teams on Mack and for Derek Carr to get the ball out of his quickly. With Chase Daniel starting, the Bears offense should be slow out of the gate, giving the Raiders a real shot to be up at halftime and given the three free points, I’ll happily jump on this line.

Gio – Bills +3 at Titans

Apparently just because the Bills lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots solely because of a blocked punt, they are now slated to be the underdogs for games like these. Yes, I’m aware that Josh Allen will likely not play, but Matt Barkley is a formidable opponent for the Titans’ defense. He can get it done in the air. Buffalo wins this football game outright.

Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Bills at Titans under 38.5

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If Allen plays for the Bills I will worry about this number a little bit but if Barkley is the starter, the under should hit with ease. This game has two good defenses, that have held every opponent they have faced under 21 points. Meanwhile, the Bills are averaging 19 points per game and while the Titans are averaging 22.8, they have averaged just 16 since their week one blow out of the Browns. With two great defenses and two below-average quarterbacks (again assuming Barkley starts), this game has a 13-10 final score written all over it.

Gio – Ravens at Steelers over 44

Despite the respect garnered by the Ravens’ defense, they haven’t been anything special so far this season. The Steelers’ played well against the Bengals last week, but they are tasked with Lamar Jackson who can do it on the ground and in the air. This game should be pretty back and forth allowing for the over to be achieved.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – James White over 3.5 catches

Despite missing week three verse the Jets with the birth of his child, White is still second on the team in catches with 16, making his season average 5.3 per game. Furthermore, since the start of the 2018 season, White has caught four or more passes in 73.7% of games (14 of 19). While the Patriots will have trouble destroying the Redskins, the starters will play the majority of the game and given Brady’s trust in White, I wouldn’t surprised if White has four or more catches by halftime. You have to lay a heavy price (-160 in most spots), but it’s all but a lock for White to hit the over.

Gio – Kyler Murray over 1.5 passing touchdowns

We’re going to continue to pick on the Bengals’ weak secondary because I am pretty confident that Murray has at least two touchdown passes in him. He’s going to have to rely heavily on Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, but don’t be surprised if David Johnson gets more involved than normal in the passing game. 

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