Week 14 NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli | December 7th, 2019

It’s week 14 and that means we have four weeks left in the 2019 NFL regular season. A handful of teams have been eliminated from the playoffs while a few can lock up playoff spots tomorrow. There are several games this week with serious playoff implications including the Sunday night game between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angles Rams. With so many critical games this weekend, expect a lot of entertaining games with close outcomes.

To recap last week, Mike had an excellent week, going 9-4 ATS and 3-0 on his favorite bets as Le’Veon Bell barely went over his total of 33.5 receiving yards with 35 in a loss to the Bengals. Gio had a down week, going 5-8 ATS and just 1-2 on his favorite bets as the Chargers and Broncos total went over 38.5 to finish at 43 points thanks to two field goals in the final 30 seconds of the game, keeping Gio from cashing that ticket. In total, Mike went 12-4 (75% hit rate) while Gio went 6-10 (37.5%) on their 16 bets from last week.

Unfortunately, Gio had a personal emergency and was unable to make picks this week. To make up for that, Mike will also give his take on the over/under for each game this weekend. Remember Mike is not a professional better nor knows everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how he does in week 14.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Favorite Spread Bet

Jaguars +3 vs Chargers (-105)

I don’t understand how the Jaguars are underdogs at home, against a struggling Chargers team, who have lost three straight games and are now in last place in the AFC West. The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in three straight games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are going back to Gardner Minshew and in the eight games he started this season, the Jaguars went 5-3 ATS. Furthermore, with Minshew at quarterback, the Jaguars have covered the spread in three of their four games against non-playoff teams. I don’t think the Jaguars need the three points and would take them on the money line at +160.

Favorite Over/Under Bet

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49ers at Saints first quarter total over 7.5 points (-117)

Let’s dig deep this week. I’m very surprised to see this number at only 7.5 points when the game total is 44.5 points. The Saints average just under five points per game in the first quarter this season while the 49ers average just under six. However, the 49ers have scored seven or more points in the first quarter in 67% of their games this season while the Saints have scored a touchdown or more in just under 50% of their games. Between the two, they should be able to put up two scores (a touchdown and a field goal) in the first quarter and hit the over.

Favorite Prop Bet

Drew Lock over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130)

In his first career game, Lock threw two touchdowns to Courtland Sutton in the first quarter against the Chargers. Unlike the Chargers, the Texans have one of the worse passing defenses in the league. They have given up 25 passing touchdowns this season, tied for the fifth-most in the league and have given up two or more passing touchdowns in 67% of their games this season. Furthermore, the Texans have given up three or more passing touchdowns in six of their last eight games. The Broncos will have to chase points in the second half, giving Lock plenty of opportunity to find Sutton for another pair of touchdowns this week.

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