Week 13 NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | November 30th, 2019

Hopefully, everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and didn’t beat the hell out of anyone on Black Friday. If you got to enjoy the three Thanksgiving games, all three were entertaining, unless you’re a Cowboys fan then just two were entertaining. The underdog covered in two of the three games with the Falcons coming up a point or two short of covering the spread in their game against the Saints. With the NFL playoffs a little more than a month away, there should be plenty of competitive games this week.

To recap last week, both guys had a solid week going 9-7 (56.3% hit rate) on their 16 bets. The difference was Mike went 1-2 on his favorite bets as Julio Jones went under 95.5 receiving yards as he left the game against the Buccaneers with an injury that kept him out for the Thanksgiving game. Meanwhile, Gio went 2-1 on his favorite bets as the Bills easily covered the four points in their blowout win over the Broncos, only to be followed up with a nine points win over the Cowboys despite being a touchdown underdog. However, either of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do with the rest of week 13.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Titans +2.5 at Colts

I know the Colts have owned the Titans over the years, including a 19-17 win in week two but this Colts’ team shouldn’t scare anyone offensively. Jacoby Brissett looked awful last week against the Texans while leading receiver T.Y. Hilton and leading rusher Marlon Mack have both been ruled out this week with injuries. Meanwhile, the Titans’ offense has been rolling lately, averaging 29.4 points per game since turning to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. The Titans have a 4-1 record with Tannehill, including a three-point win over the Chiefs two weeks ago. They have gone 3-1-1 ATS with Tannehill starting and I have no idea why the Colts are favored in this game. I would take the Titans on the money line at +106 and feel very good about it.

Gio – Patriots -3 at Texans

Just because their offense has struggled this season, are we really going to pretend that we’re not talking about Tom Brady and the New England Patriots? The Texans’ defense got torched by the Baltimore Ravens and I expect the Patriots to pick up some offensive momentum against them. Brady needs to get back on track before the playoffs. He can’t rely only on his defense. The Patriots defense should be able to hold the Texans in check, making this game not as close as people think it will be.

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Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Browns at Steelers under 39

When these two teams played two weeks ago, the final total was 28 points. The Steelers scored just seven points while the Browns scored 21. However, the Steelers defense plays better at home and the Browns offense has struggled on the road against good defenses. When the Browns have faced a top 10 scoring defense (the Steelers rank seventh) on the road this season, they scored 40 on the Ravens (before they got their defense in order), three on the 49ers, 13 on the Patriots and 19 on the Broncos. Removing the fluke game against the Ravens, the Browns average 11.7 points per game on the road against top 10 scoring defenses. With Devlin Hodges starting for the Steelers, I expect this to be a defensive low scoring game.

Gio – Chargers at Broncos under 38.5

When these two teams played in week five, the final total was 33 points. Drew Lock will be making his first start on Sunday which could be a learning experience for him against a tough (ish) Chargers’ defense. Philip Rivers and co. have not been able to move the ball very well on offense, so expect this to be a snooze fest of a game.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Le’Veon Bell over 33.5 receiving yards

The Jets offense is starting to get going. They have won three straight, scoring 34 points in each game. A large part of their recent success is Sam Darnold and Bell. Over his last four games, Bell is averaging 37.8 receiving yards per game, topping at least 33 yards in each game. During this span, Bell has been targeted at least four times in three of those games while catching 95% of his targets. The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the league and I expect this Jets offense, centered around Bell, to keep up their recent success.

Gio – Jamaal Williams over 21.5 receiving yards

Matt LaFleur has shown that he wants to use both Aaron Jones and Williams. Williams is a major threat as a receiver and he continues to produce from that position. He faces a Giants’ defense on Sunday who haven’t done much of anything very well this year. This seems like a relatively safe bet, barring any injury or anything.

Questions and comments?

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