Week 11 NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

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Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | November 16th, 2019

We are less than two weeks away from Thanksgiving and that means the playoff races are heating up. With the Seattle Seahawks defeating the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, there are no more undefeated teams left in the NFL. The Seahawks are on a bye this week while the 49ers are the biggest favorites of the week at -10.5 against the Arizona Cardinals. With several close matchups this week, including one in Mexico City, expect a lot of entertaining football tomorrow.

To recap last week, Mike struggled again, going 5-6-1 ATS and 0-2-1 on his favorite bets after the Miami Dolphins came up half a point short of their team total, scoring just 16 points in their victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Meanwhile, Gio had a good week, going 7-4-1 ATS and 2-1 on his favorite bets as the Cleveland Browns’ team total of 20.5 hit as they scored just 19 points in their victory over the Buffalo Bills. In total, Mike went 5-8-2 (40% hit rate) while Gio went 9-5-1 (64.3% hit rate) on our 15 bets from last week. However, either of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week 11.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Cardinals +10.5 at 49ers

How this game has the largest spread this week is beyond me but I’ll take it. Just two weeks ago, the Cardinals almost defeated the 49ers on Halloween, losing 28-25. In their last two games, the 49ers have won by three (against the Cardinals) and lost by three (in overtime to the Seahawks). By comparison, the 49ers won their first seven games by an average of 18.6 points per game. I believe we are overvaluing the 49ers in part because of their 51-13 win over the Panthers three weeks ago and their 8-1 record. Furthermore, the 49ers will be without Joe Staley and George Kittle Sunday, and potentially without Matt Breida and Emmanuel Sanders, limiting their offense’s firepower. Expect a close victory for the 49ers.

Gio – Panthers -4.5 vs Falcons

Just because the Falcons had a huge upset win over the Saints last week doesn’t mean that this team is any better than they were going into that game. Their secondary is just as bad and their defense as a unit is an embarrassing. I’m predicting a huge game from Kyle Allen, Christian McCaffrey, and Curtis Samuel in a game that might not even be close. I’m so unbelievably confident that the Falcons got lucky last week and that that will not happen again.

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Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Ravens team total over 27.5

This game is expected to be a shootout as it is half a point away from being tied for the highest over/under this weekend. The Ravens are averaging 33.3 points per game and have scored over 30 in three straight games including against two good defenses and the paper Bengals. Meanwhile, the Texans give up 21.2 points per game but their secondary can be taken apart and I expect Lamar Jackson to do that. Both teams should have no problem going up and down the field and I love the over on both team’s totals (23.5 for the Texans) and the game total (51). I believe this to be a shootout and the highest-scoring game this week.

Gio – Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 10.5 points in the first half

This game is another one of those games that you expect to be high scoring but will probably be an ultimate letdown. The Buccaneers have a solid offense when Jameis Winston is functioning and he tends to play the Saints tough. Even when he has a bad game, he still manages to put up some points for his squad and I expect this trend to continue on Sunday.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Cardinals team touchdown total over 1.5

My second bet in this game and I love this one even more. This number is a touchdown short of where it should be. The Cardinals have scored two or more touchdowns in 70% of their games this season, including five of their last six games. Furthermore, they scored three touchdowns two weeks ago against the 49ers. In the two games the 49ers haven’t had Kwon Alexander from start to finish, they are giving up 26 points and three touchdowns per game. The Cardinals’ offense has been clicking lately and I wouldn’t be surprised if you can cash this ticket by halftime.

Gio – Josh Jacobs scores and the Raiders win

Although the almighty Geno Atkins still resides on the Cincinnati defensive line, I still expect a great performance out of Jacobs. The Bengals defense has the third-worst rushing defense in the league and Jacobs has been a bell cow for the Raiders. He’s the most reliable player on that offense and should easily find a way to get in the end zone on Sunday.

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