Week 10 NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

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Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | November 9th, 2019

The 2019 NFL season seems like it just started, yet we are more than halfway through the regular season. The playoffs are just around the corner as teams are fighting for division titles and wild card spots. Week 10 offered betters five divisional matchups, including the Thursday night game between the Los Angles Chargers and Oakland Raiders. Despite being 2.5-3.5 point underdogs, the Raiders got the outright victory 26-24. With four more divisional games tomorrow, expect plenty of close games this week.

To recap last week, Mike struggled, going 4-9 ATS but 2-1 on his favorite bets after the Miami Dolphins got their first win of the season. Meanwhile, Gio had a good week, going 7-6 ATS but just 1-2 on his favorite bets as Zach Pascal scored for the Indianapolis Colts but the Pittsburgh Steelers won the game 26-24, costing Gio the chance to cash his parlay. In total, Mike went 6-10 (37.5% hit rate) while Gio went 8-8 (50% hit rate) on our 16 bets from last week. However, either of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week 10.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Bills +3 at Browns (-115)

I have zero idea why the Bills are three-point underdogs here. The Browns are 2-6 with their two wins coming against the Ravens and Jets. Meanwhile, the Bills are 6-2 with their two losses coming against the Patriots and Eagles. I am so confident in the Bills winning this game I would take them on the money line or even better, on the alternative point spread at Bills -2.5 at +150. They have won their last five games by four or more points. The Bills don’t score a lot of points but their defense will shut down that Browns’ struggling offense and should win this game outright.

Gio – Seahawks +6.5 at 49ers (-110)

The 49ers have played phenomenal football so far this season but so have the Seahawks. They have the potential league MVP at quarterback, and although they don’t blow out their opponents, they get the job done. This is a relatively large spread for a divisional game between two Super Bowl contenders. I don’t know that the Seahawks win outright, but they will definitely hang around.

Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Dolphins team over 16.5 points at Colts (-105)

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Last week I backed the Dolphins +3.5 and they won outright. While I’m not expecting them to beat the Colts I do like them +11.5 as the Colts tend to play down to their competition at times and without T.Y. Hilton, their offense isn’t anywhere near as explosive. To make things worse, Jacoby Brissett has been ruled out for this game. The Dolphins have scored 21 or more points in two of their last three games (all three Ryan Fitzpatrick has started). Meanwhile, the Colts have given up 17 or more points in 75% of their games this season. I don’t expect this to be a blowout nor a low scoring game, look for a final score of around 28-23 with the Colts pulling out a victory.

Gio – Cleveland Browns team under 20.5 points vs. Bills (-103)

The Bills defense keeps their team in the game at all times. While they have struggled to stop the run right up the gut this year, they brought in Corey Liuget to hopefully solve this problem, and make Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt ineffective. The Bills play to the level of their competition, so I’m expecting this to be a close game with a score like 20-14. Baker Mayfield doesn’t have what it takes to have a big passing day on the Bills’ elite secondary.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Lamar Jackson over 70.5 rushing yards (-112)

I’m so confident in this bet, I’m putting down probably too much money on it. The Bengals give up the most rushing yards per game at 177.6 per game, 27 more yards than the second most team in the league. In Jackson’s one start last year against the Bengals he ran the ball 26 times for 119 yards. Over his last five games, Jackson has nine rushes for 66 yards, 14 for 70, 19 for 152 (against the Bengals), 14 for 116, and 16 for 61. Jackson would top the 70.5 rushing yards in two of those games and come close in the other three. In his career, two of Jackson’s three best games on the ground have come against the Bengals. I don’t endorse betting your life savings but if you’re dumb enough to do it, this is the bet to do it on.

Gio – David Montgomery over 67.5 rushing yards (-112)

The Bears have finally realized that they need to make Montgomery their workhorse at tailback. They face the worst defense against the run this week in the Detroit Lions. I’m so incredibly confident in this prediction that I would risk my mortgage on this. All joking aside, Montgomery should have a career day in a game that would be a huge turning point for Chicago should they win.

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