To be clear, it is 100 percent too early to have a good handle on this subject. There are plenty of things that can come up between now and the season’s start that can totally change these predictions. With that in mind, I wanted to predict some of the awards for the upcoming NFL season. If you didn’t catch it, you can read my first article which went over MVP candidates here.
With that being said, let’s take a look at some predictions for the defensive player of the year award.
The Front Runners
Aaron Donald
The two time consecutive winner of the defensive player of the year award is poised to compete for a third. Aaron Donald is arguably the best defensive tackle we have ever seen and the arrow is only pointing up. Headed into his third year under defensive coordinator Wade Philips, Donald should be fully settled in this year. In 2018, Donald posted the most sacks of his career with 20.5. this year, Donald has a chance to break in to the top 100 all time in sacks, needing just eight to do so.
Donald did lose running mate Ndamukong Suh this offseason to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Rams resigned Dante Fowler and added former Packer Clay Mathews. Donald is the favorite headed into the season to collect his third defensive player of the year award. Donald would join Lawrence Taylor and J.J.Watt as the only three players to win three such awards in their career. In addition, he’d be the first to win three consecutive defensive player of the year awards.
J.J. Watt
When mentioning top defensive talent in the NFL, you can’t ignore J.J. Watt. The three-time winner of the defensive player of the year award has been a terror to opposing offenses when healthy. 2016 and 2017 were scarred by injuries, which led to only 8 games played through both years. In 2018, Watt was back healthy and disrupting. He finished with his best sack total since 2015.
Watt’s age is starting to become a factor as he turned 30 this past March. I think Watt has some gas left in the tank. The Texans lost Tyrann Mathieu, but signed Tashaun Gipson, Bradley Roby, and Briean Boddy-Calhoun to replenish the defense.
Lonnie Johnson in the draft adds even more talent to the cornerback room.
Make no mistake, Watt is the leader of the defense and with added help, he could be on course to remind the NFL what he is capable of.
Khalil Mack
This one isn’t tough. Khalil Mack was traded from the Raiders last season and flourished with the Bears. Mack finished with 12.5 sacks and six forced fumbles, the second-best and best single season results of his career, respectively. Mack has a knack for finding the ball and poking it out. It’s clear that Mack excelled under the tutelage of former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
Fangio did depart from the Bears this offseason, but a familiar name was hired to replace him in Chuck Pagano. Pagano made his name in the NFL as a defensive coordinator and should keep the Bears defense firing on all cylinders.
The one-time winner of the Defensive Player of the Year award will look to continue to remind the Raiders of the mistake they made when they traded him.
Don’t worry Raiders fans, Clelin Ferrell is almost as good as Khalil Mack.
The Dark Horses
Derwin James
This one is quite plausible. James burst on to the scene in 2018 posting 105 combined tackles, three and a half sacks and three interceptions. The Chargers were already good on the defensive side of the ball and they only got better in the draft adding Jerry Tillery and Nasir Adderely. Adderely will complement James well and allow him more freedom on the defense.
James can play in the box, in coverage, and even blitz the quarterback. If he improves off of last year’s numbers and the Chargers succeed as a team, I don’t see how the associated press can ignore him. Imagine a stat line of seven sacks, 100+ tackles and five interceptions?
James would be the first defensive back to win the award since Troy Polomalu in 2010 and only the fourth safety since 2000.
T.J. Watt
The Watt family sure knows how to produce defenders. Well, except Derek Watt. T.J. enters his third year after producing 13 sacks in his second year.
The biggest addition for Watt, in my eyes, is the addition of a true quarterback of the defense in Devin Bush. The Steelers also brought in Mark Barron, Anthony Chickillo, and Steven Nelson to add some help on the defensive side of the ball. The addition of Chickilo, Barron, and Bush will allow defensive coordinator Keith Butler to blitz Watt in more creative ways.
It may seem like a stretch, but I think the Steelers will be better on both sides of the ball. Watt got better from year one to year two and marginal improvement in year three puts him in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. Imagine 80 combined tackles, 19.5 sacks and three interceptions, solid numbers for an outside linebacker.
Honorable Mentions: Leghton Vander Esch, Bradley Chubb, Myles Garrett, Leighton Vander Esch, Darius Leonard
My pick: Derwin James
