The Football Team had a peculiar 2020 season. They finished just 7-9 but actually won their division. Further, they welcomed the emergence of young playmakers in Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Chase Young, and others. Then, this past offseason, the organization filled in several key gaps by signing players like Curtis Samuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
With a solidified roster in tow, it is reasonable to expect big things from the Football Team this season. Exactly how much stock can we put into the franchise’s key playmakers when it comes to fantasy football?
Make sure to check out all of our other 2021 Fantasy Football Previews.
Quarterbacks – Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick opened 2020 as the Dolphins’ starter and had a hot start to the season, averaging 23 completions, 256 yards, 1.7 touchdowns, and 1.2 interceptions per game from Weeks 1 through 6. He also averaged 23 rushing yards and 0.3 touchdowns on the ground during this time. However, Miami infamously benched the veteran signal-caller after its bye week, giving the reins to Tua Tagovailoa. Fitzpatrick returned sporadically throughout the season when Miami needed game-winning drives from someone they could trust; over these three relief appearances, Fitzpatrick averaged 12.36 yards and 0.07 touchdowns per completion. (He averaged 11.12 yards and 0.07 touchdowns per completion during games he started.) The 38-year-old Harvard product ultimately finished as the QB6 from Weeks 2 to 6.
Going into 2021, Fitzpatrick has a more strong, stable, and productive group of weapons around him. He traded DeVante Parker for McLaurin while getting to dump off to Gibson and McKissic rather than Myles Gaskin. Further, Washington averaged 37 pass attempts per game with Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Alex Smith team last season; Fitzpatrick averaged 33 attempts per start. As such, even with the surge of the running game, Fitzpatrick should have enough volume and opportunity to post mid-range QB2 numbers or better. If you’re playing in a superflex league or even looking for a security option in single-quarterback formats, Fitzpatrick represents a great target. He has minimal competition this season and is a great value option at his current ADP of QB23.
Running Backs – Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic
Gibson played a hybrid receiving and rushing role at Memphis, so many people had reasonable doubts about him heading into last season. However, it did not take long for the rookie to debunk any and all concerns. He averaged 80 scrimmage yards and one touchdown per game from Weeks 2 through 4, then went on an even bigger tear later in the season. Over five games from Weeks 7 to 12, Gibson averaged 98 yards and a whopping 1.6 touchdowns per contest. During this span, he finished as the RB3 in terms of total points (101.3) and RB2 in terms of points per game (20.3).
The biggest concerns about Gibson heading into 2021 involve injuries, usage, and receiving ability. Gibson dealt with turf toe late last season, has yet to be used as a true three-down back, and had just 247 yards and zero touchdowns through the air over 14 games. Two of these concerns have been alleviated: word out of training camp suggests that Gibson is healthy and seeing an increased workload in the passing game. However, the team hasn’t quite committed to him as a three-down back through its two preseason games. This isn’t a major concern as his talent and nose for the end zone will shine no matter what, but it does have a small bearing on his stock.
Despite all of this, Gibson is a very good pick at his current ADP of RB11. Anyone who drafts him will be impressed by the running back’s performance in his second pro season. If you use your first-round pick on a wide receiver or tight end, you should feel confident about exiting the draft with Gibson headlining your running back core.
McKissic represents another intriguing option out of the Washington backfield. He meshed incredibly well with Alex Smith, who is known for his willingness to pass the pigskin to running backs. In fact, McKissic, a 28-year-old wide receiver-turned-running back, logged 85 carries for 365 rushing yards in addition to 80 receptions for 589 yards in 2020. In total, he amassed 954 scrimmage yards and three scores, finishing as the RB24.
Don’t get too excited about the pass-catching back, though. Washington is going to let Fitzpatrick air it out this season, meaning there could be fewer opportunities for check-downs. Further, Gibson and Peyton Barber have reportedly improved their pass-catching abilities. While McKissic is still the leading option in the backfield, he’s no longer the sole option. Both of these factors suggest a noticeable regression for the Arkansas State product.
Still, McKissic is currently being drafted as the RB48, which is 24 slots lower than he finished in 2020. At this valuation, he is a low-end RB4. I would feel more comfortable taking him as a mid-range RB5, which isn’t too far off from his current ADP. If he’s still on the board in the 13th or 14th round (in a 12-team league), it’s worth pulling the trigger on him. He’s also a great insurance option in case Gibson goes down with an injury, and it would not be foolish to stack both of them on your roster.
Wide Receivers – Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, Dyami Brown
McLaurin is a volume machine. The Ohio State product has emerged as the top weapon in the Washington offense, accruing an NFL-best (among receivers) 98.1 percent snap share last season. He also ranked fourth in routes run with 567, ninth in targets with 134 targets, and sixth in air yards with 468. Despite playing with a shaky quarterback room, the now-25-year-old caught 87 balls for 1,118 yards and four touchdowns last year. His red zone efficiency was underwhelming, but he was a ball magnet and should continue to have a similar role this season.
The big concern with McLaurin is that the addition of Curtis Samuel will steal some of his targets. The signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick does help to negate these worries, but you have to be really confident if you are drafting McLaurin at his current ADP of WR10. In an offense with so many weapons, you might be wise to pass on McLaurin unless you can get him as the second receiver on your roster.
Next up on the depth chart is Samuel, who reunites with head coach Ron Rivera after several years with the Carolina Panthers. He also links back up with McLaurin, who was his teammate and roommate at Ohio State. Now 25 years old, Samuel broke out in 2020 for 1,051 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns. While not an extreme red zone threat, he still scored at a solid rate and also drew volume in both the passing and running games. He was fairly efficient last season, too, posting a 92.8 percent catch rate (14th among receivers in the NFL), 85.5 percent catchable target rate (eighth), and 79.4 percent catch rate (fourth).
Perhaps the most intriguing stat surrounding Samuel focuses on what he did with his opportunities. Samuel had 0.627 fantasy points per route run (seventh among receivers in the NFL) and 2.18 points per target (13th). As long as he sees volume, he should have significant fantasy value. Samuel’s current ADP of WR43 makes him the fourth receiver on your roster, which is a fair price to pay. However, tread lightly and know which other players are available when drafting. Despite having lower ADPs, receivers like Mike Williams and Jaylen Waddle represent better picks than Samuel.
Humphries inked a deal with Washington after his 2020 campaign with the Titans was cut short due to a scary concussion situation. After logging 815 receiving yards with the Buccaneers in 2018, he posted just 602 yards through 19 games between 2019 and 2020. With that said, Humphries could return to 2018 form now that he reunites with Fitzpatrick, who spent some time as his quarterback on that exact Bucs squad. Still, you shouldn’t bank on him being a weekly fantasy asset. Rather, he’s worth considering at his ADP of WR96 solely due to the potential upside in this offense. Draft him in deeper leagues because the worst-case scenario is that you cut him loose after a few weeks. It would be dangerous to completely ignore his concussion injury, too.
Brown, a rookie out of North Carolina, is the final piece here. The speedy deep threat logged 2,033 yards and 20 touchdowns over his final two seasons in college. He should be rostered in all dynasty leagues but has little relevance in redraft leagues. At a current ADP of WR109, Brown should go undrafted in most redraft formats. With that said, he could be a solid pick-up if McLaurin, Samuel, or Humphries were to suffer an injury.
Tight Ends – Logan Thomas
Thomas broke out for a big campaign in his age-29 season last year. The quarterback-turned-tight end caught 72 passes for 670 yards and six touchdowns while finishing as the TE6 in 2020. He had incredible productivity and opportunity metrics but struggled when it came to the ever-important efficiency. Still, he is the clear No. 1 tight end option in Washington and should yield similar volume to what he saw last season.
With that said, be careful when drafting tight ends. Don’t ignore the “great or late” strategy, which suggests you should wait until the later rounds for a tight end if you can’t select one of the top guys. The reason why this is so important? Thomas’s 140.6 fantasy points may have finished sixth among tight ends, but this would’ve ranked him as the WR40. If you’re not going to spring for an elite tight end, you might be wise to use your mid-round picks on a different position and address tight end later on.
Defense/Special Teams
Washington shone in 2020, finishing sixth among defense/special teams units. They logged 47 sacks, seven fumble recoveries, 16 interceptions, and three touchdowns. Specifically, the team came on strong at the end of the year. Washington averaged 0.86 fumble recoveries, 1.14 interceptions, and 0.43 touchdowns per game over its final seven weeks. After shoring up its defense with first-round linebacker Jamin Davis and talented ex-Bengals cornerback William Jackson, it’s reasonable to expect even bigger things from this unit in 2021. A defense like Baltimore might be a safer pick. However, I wouldn’t blame you for taking Washington as the first defense off of your draft board.
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