Kevin Walsh | September 7th, 2019
This article was posted last week as an early peek at value for week one. This is a revision of that article with all the pertinent news that has happened in a whirlwind week leading up to opening Sunday.
The original article can be found here.
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett ($4,400 DK, $6,000 FD)
This is solely based on the fact that Andrew Luck is no longer a Colt. While the matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is not necessarily ideal, Brissett is a serviceable backup turned starter, especially for fantasy since he can generate points with his legs. His price is extremely low, and I think a lot of players will go here to jam in multiple expensive backs.
Matthew Stafford ($5,400 DK, $6,600 FD)
While many will look at Kyler Murray in his NFL debut, on the other side of the ball is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league. While that doesn’t equate to fantasy points, he is hardly a terrible play against an Arizona Cardinals team that has not improved as much as they’d like you to think. They were awful against the run last year, and they may sell out to stop this run-heavy offense. If we are looking for a slate-breaker, a simple Lions stack would be cheap and could pay off huge, especially if the Cardinals flounder in their home debut. This is strictly a tournament play and probably needs to be an MME play, if anything.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD)
With Melvin Gordon standing firm in his holdout, that would leave a lot of volume to Ekeler, who performed well when Gordon was hurt last season. Even if he cedes some touches to Justin Jackson between the tackles, Ekeler is the passing down back and should garner some targets in that regard. With Gordon not in uniform for the season opener, Ekeler will be a cash game staple and mega-chalk in tournaments – for good reason.
Giovani Bernard ($4,100 DK, $5,200 FD)
Purely a GPP play, Bernard poses an interesting question – what kind of team would make their backup running back the seventh highest paid at his position? Clearly, the Bengals plan on using him for what they just paid him this week, and could be a bit of a slate-breaker if he ends up catching 6-8 balls while they are getting pummeled by the Seahawks. He would still need to score to really break the slate open, and there is a ton of risk here, but there is just not any other value down below Ekeler this week.
Wide Receiver
Mike Williams ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD)
With Keenan Allen banged up, and Gordon holding out, that leaves Williams to be a featured piece of this passing game. Clearly, this is reliant on Allen missing week one for sure, but he is looking like a nice discount if he is the number one in Los Angeles.
Tyler Boyd ($5,800 DK, $6,900 FD)
Much more of a value on DraftKings, Boyd will benefit from several things this season, but none more than A.J. Green is out of the lineup for the first few weeks. Boyd had some great weeks last season when he saw nine or more targets, and an opening game matchup in Seattle will likely result in needing to play catch up for most of the second half. The Bengals passing game is in play here, and Boyd is the cheapest this week as he will be until Green returns.
Marvin Jones ($4,800 DK, $6,100 FD)
Coupling with the Stafford play, Jones is a touchdown monster playing against a weak secondary that is missing Patrick Peterson. While Kenny Golladay also stands to gain from playing against this team, Jones is the value and is just as likely to pay off his price, especially on DraftKings with the full PPR.
Paul Richardson ($3,900 DK, $4,900 FD)
The Redskins should get behind in Philadelphia, and in a hurry. Richardson is the de facto primary receiver for Case Keenum. It is not an easy pill to swallow, but if you need a deep dive, you aren’t going to find a more concrete role in the offense at this price.
Tight End
Evan Engram ($4,800 DK, $6,400 FD)
I know, I know, he is the fifth-highest priced tight end on both sites. He doesn’t fit the traditional definition of value in terms of DFS. With Golden Tate suspended, Sterling Shepard maybe playing with the broken thumb, and the next aerial threats in New York being former Broncos washout Cody Latimer and late-round rookie Darius Slayton, Engram is poised for a monster role in the passing game in the opener. You are getting a tight end stud at a medium price. I imagine his ownership will be a bit high this week, but I have no qualms about paying $4,800 for that amount of volume.
Delanie Walker ($3,500 DK, $5,400 FD)
A better value on DraftKings, just because FanDuel doesn’t price down tight ends very much, Walker is returning from injury to a team lacking much of a passing game. Marcus Mariota’s efficiency dropped hard last season without Walker, and if he is truly 100%, he could be a sneaky play for week one.
Defense
Detroit Lions ($2,900 DK, $4,100 FD)
I am not a huge proponent of value defenses, because picking one sometimes is just a crapshoot who is going to score a defensive touchdown and put up a 20 burger for a defense. In that vein, I choose the Lions here. They were a solid defense at times last year, but the biggest thing is that this is the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray breakout party. Many will be on Kyler and company, but it is just as likely that he throws three interceptions and if we’re lucky, one of them turns out to be a pick-six. Defenses are tough to dissect early in the season, so picking on a rookie quarterback and coach at a value is probably a safe move.
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