Steve Seufert | June 12th, 2020
This is such an uninspiring card, but there are some good fights at the top of the card. It’s so difficult to make good fight cards right now due to the travel limitations, and some people just don’t want to fight during this global pandemic. With that being said, a fight card is a fight card and come Saturday, I’m sure I’ll be up and excited about it.
Jessica Eye (-103) vs Cynthia Calvillo (-117)
I like waiting to write these articles until after the weigh-in and today is the reason why. Eye looked awful at the weigh-in, where she couldn’t even pose for the fight picture on the scale and she acknowledged that by apologizing to the media. This could have a major impact on our main event. Calvillo on the other hand is a small flyweight, as she’s coming up a weight class.
I won’t bet this fight because of the ugly weigh-in but if Eye re-hydrates properly, there shouldn’t be an issue. I’m going to stick with Eye, who was my gut prediction. She”s the bigger fighter. She’s improved liked crazy and her boxing has gone from awful to really good. She’s really beat some tough competition at this weight class and the career improvements is a great story.
Calvillo seems like a sweet lady and there’s nothing to dislike about her. She does have a win over a really good prospect in Aspen Ladd and that is no easy task. Her BJJ is legit on the ground and Eye has pretty poor takedown defense. But to provide context, Eye’s takedown defense is weighted poorly from earlier in her career. Give me Eye by decision.
Prediction: Eye wins via Decision.
The Bet: No bet but Eye -103 is worth a shot.
Karl Roberson (+185) vs Marvin Vettori (-210)
Many know Vettori as the guy who took Israel Adesanya to split decision, and he’s still the only person to come close to beating Adesanya. Vettori is coming into this fight with a huge chip on his shoulder. He’s upset about how many guys have pulled out of the fight in the last minute against him. Guess who was one of those guys? Roberson. Vettori is already an emotional fighter as it is and he will always continue to pressure you. However, Vettori is the one that usually gasses before anyone else.
Roberson is an interesting fighter. He only has two losses and both are by submission, which plays into the strength of Vettori. However, Roberson does have some clear weapons on the feet. He’s a pretty good kickboxer, with heavy kicks to the legs and a good straight right. I’m just not sure he will be able to keep Vettori at range, and the pressure will be too much to unload those heavy kicks and elbows.
Vettori is a tough kid. He will take you to deep water and see who drowns first. Sometimes Vettori drowns first but will even overcome the adversity of being tired. Roberson’s takedown defense is only around 50% and if Vettori takes Roberson down, I’m not sure he will be able to get up. While I think Vettori has a clear advantage I think -210 is a little ridiculous. I have Vettori winning but I have no interest in that -210 price. If you bet Roberson at +185, I wouldn’t even argue it.
Prediction: Vettori via submission in round three
The Bet: Vettori via submission is at +500 and I’m interested.
Merab Dvalishvili (-800) vs Gustavo Lopez (+550)
This is going to be a short breakdown because it’s one of those short notice fights where someone keeps beat up badly. Ray Borg was originally slated to fight Dvailishvili but had to step away due to health concerns. Dvalishvili is a stud wrestler and he tossed Casey Kenney around like a rag doll, which surprised a lot of people. Lopez is good off his back but he really doesn’t have a path to victory. I think we could see a 30-24 decision here.
Prediction: Dvailishvili throws Lopez around like a rag doll and scores a 10-8 in all three rounds.
The Bet: Dvailishvili in every straight up bet you make. This is awful advice but no way he loses.
Andre Fili (-222) vs Charles Jourdain (+187)
Fili is one of my favorite fighters. He’s not afraid to stand and bang with his big right hand. That excites me because he really has a wrestler’s first background. I do have some concerns with his ability to adjust against southpaws and Jourdain is a striking southpaw.
I think this is a huge step up for Jourdain. Is he the better striker? Maybe, but I’m not ready to say that. If this turns into 15 minutes of striking, maybe Jourdain steals a decision but other than that I don’t see the path to victory. Fili has a really good chin and he should be able to take him down and steal rounds with the wrestling. I really like Fili in this spot but at -222, it seems a little risky.
Prediction: Fili wins via a close decision, 29-28 feels about right.
The Bet: I have no interest in betting this one. It’s a good fight to watch where the line is too wide.
Jordan Espinosa (-160) vs Mark de La Rosa (+140)
Both of these guys aren’t very good. I think both will get cut within the next year or so but the winner could prolong his career. Espinosa is a good wrestler with pretty fair striking on the feet. However, his fight IQ and his submission defense are embarrassing. Kudos to the matchmakers because they’re giving him de La Rosa who is decent off his back and uses his BJJ to win fights.
Espinosa is way more athletic, he has the better striking and the wrestling is good enough to last in the guard of de La Rosa, at least I would hope so. I’m actually going to bet Espinosa here, I am always wrestler first but I’ll have sweat the submission defense.
Prediction: Espinosa wins via dominant decision, stealing takedowns late and working that jab with athletic striking on the feet.
The Bet: I’m going straight up betting the -160, if you bet on de La Rosa, you’re betting on Espinosa to do something stupid.
Mariya Agapova (-315) vs Hannah Cifers (+265)
I love Cifers, I really do, but her team needs to stop taking these quick turnaround fights against up-and-coming studs. Agapova is only 22 years old but she is no joke. She could be a future star in the UFC. She is the superior striker in this matchup and the much bigger striker as most girls are when they’re facing Cifers.
Cifers fought a couple weeks ago against Dern, and she got inside and landed some decent shots but showed poor fight IQ on the mat. I actually don’t think she will get inside on Agapova because of how good she is with her striking at range. Even if this does hit the mat, Agapova has improved and is now submitting girls. I feel bad for Cifers because she’s actually really talented but the UFC doesn’t have an atom weight division, and that’s where she belongs. Her power would play way up in that division.
Prediction: I’ll take Agapova via decision. I think Cifers is tough enough to last but it should be dominant.
The Bet: I’d fit Agapova comfortably in some parlays but don’t overload.
Charles Rosa (+156) vs Kevin Aguilar (-181)
Not a fan of either of these guys and I don’t think either should be in the UFC. Rosa is a good grappler but Aguilar has really good takedown defense. When I was breaking down this fight, I thought it would be closer to a pick em’. I’m shocked this line is at -181. We see Rosa steal rounds all the time with volume, and it’s volume that doesn’t land or barely lands. That will always steal rounds in the UFC.
Aguilar is certainly the better striker but isn’t nearly as tough as Rosa. His chin isn’t the best and even though Rosa doesn’t throw a ton of power, one of those combinations could put Aguilar away. Like previously mentioned his takedown defense is probably his best attribute and uses his hips to fend off wrestlers.
I mean, I thought this was going to be a coin flip fight. At +156, I’m taking the tougher and more durable fighter. And remember my rule, when in doubt take the better wrestler or grappler. He can easily steal rounds with a takedown or two and that volume is tricky to score for the judges outside the octagon.
Prediction: Rosa is a black belt in BJJ and if one of those volume combinations tag Aguilar, his neck could get wrenched. Rosa via submission in round two.
The Bet: Rosa via submission +535 and straight up +156.
Julia Avila (-625) vs Gina Mazany (+450)
I kinda like Mazany because she’s a decent grappler and she’s tough as nails. But unfortunately, she’s already been cut before and she was brought back to fight Avila. Avila is 32 years old but I still consider her a solid prospect. She’s got some serious power on the feet and that’s not something you see often in the women’s division. She’s also a brown belt in BJJ and even though Mazany is a decent grappler she’s not as good as Avila.
Mazany is kind of a jobber and she’s just going to get cut again. I admire her toughness and willingness to push forward but that will work against her in this fight. She should try to stay at range and use her angles to set up a takedown but it could be nearly impossible when you have to worry about the big power. Avila should be able to put her away but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went the distance.
Prediction: Avila wins by KO/TKO in round one.
The Bet: I’m really comfortable with Avila in every parlay. If you want to prop bet, inside the distance is the place I’d look.
Tyson Nam (-125) vs Zarrukh Adashev (+105)
Adashev was born into fighting and has competed in all types of different disciplines. He’s fought hand to hand combat, professional kickboxing, etc,. He’s going to be much smaller than Nam, standing at just 5’5″ but he’s crazy athletic and puts on a show with a bunch of wild kicking and punching strikes.
Nam on the other hand is a decent boxer. He’s also huge for the division and fighting a younger and smaller fighter. Even though Nam is a decent boxer, he’s so patient and really doesn’t throw enough volume to win by decision. I’m actually going to take a shot on Adashev in his debut and say that the former world kickboxing champion puts one on Nam’s chin.
Prediction: Adashev wins via KO in round two.
The Bet: I’m betting Adashev at this price. He just throws more volume and has some legit accolades under his belt. I don’t expect there to be any newcomer nerves, as he’s probably been in bigger spots than this.
Anthony Ivy (-190) vs Christian Aguilera (-165)
Does Aguilera do anything but get knocked out? I can’t believe people are betting Aguilera, who is fighting a bigger and more athletic opponent. Sure, Aguilera is a brown belt in BJJ but we’ve seen him get dragged by blue belts. The only two losses on Ivy’s resume are by submission so he turned his focus strictly to his grappling. He’s now a BJJ black belt and submitting guys but he’s also a decent striker with good genetics and good power.
Aguilera shouldn’t be in the UFC and he’s getting cut after this fight. -190 is a steal on Ivy and I wish I jumped on him sooner. He’s going to destroy Aguilera and I think he wins by ground and pound, TKO.
Prediction: Ivy wins via TKO and he would’ve beat GM3 last week if they subbed him in.
The Bet: I bet this fight at -190 and I feel good about it. I should’ve jumped on it sooner. I’m good with this fight up to -250 and in most of your parlays.
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