Matt Bishop | July 22nd, 2019
STREAMER OF THE WEEK
Adrian Sampson, SP TEX
(16% CBS, 4% ESPN, 6% Yahoo)
2019 Season Stats:
(6-6) 4.92 ERA 1.45 WHIP 7.42 K/9 2.04 BB/9
13.6% K-BB% 1.76 HR/9
Adrian Sampson has shown flashes of brilliance, including a two-game stretch in June where he struck out 11 batters and threw a complete game (not the same outing). But some rough patches and a 7 run outburst against the Twins relegated him to a bullpen role and killed his vibe.
And while Sampson is set to rejoin the rotation on Monday, he has a favorable schedule in the coming weeks (@SEA, @OAK, DET, @MIL, @TOR).
Sampson’s two best offerings are his slider and changeup, which both carry positive pVALs. They also both are resulting in double digit swinging strike rates, with his slider topping out at an 18.6% swinging strike rate. That is the 12th best swinging-strike rate in baseball and opposing batters are hitting .209 against his slider.
Sampson’s glaring concern is his fastball. With a -15.4 pVAL on the fastball (-18.7 listed below), his heater is currently ranked as the 2nd worst fastball in baseball according to pVAL with opposing batters hitting .355 and 13 HR against it.
But there may be hope. In his last 3 outings, regardless of the small sample size (5.0 IP), opposing batters are hitting .286 against his fastball. In this span, he ditched the changeup and was throwing 59% fastballs, showing that he was clearly working on getting better and had the confidence to survive:
LAST 3 OUTINGS: .286 Batting Average
LAST 2 OUTINGS: .250 Batting Average
Adrian Sampson will square off against the Mariners in Seattle and the A’s in Oakland, which means two pitcher’s parks and two underwhelming offenses. Look for Sampson to be a very solid start this week.
MUST START
Trevor Bauer, SP CLE (@TOR, @KC)
Stephen Strasburg, SP WAS (COL, LAD)
Gerrit Cole, SP HOU (OAK, @STL)
Chris Sale, SP BOS (@TB, NYY)
Mike Clevinger, SP CLE (@TOR, @KC)
Domingo German, SP NYY (@MIN, @BOS)
Robbie Ray, SP ARI (BAL, @MIA)
SAFE START
Matthew Boyd, SP DET (PHI, @SEA)
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP BOS (@TB, NYY)
Yonny Chirinos, RP (BOS, @TOR)
Dallas Keuchel, SP ATL (KC, @PHI)
Jon Gray, SP COL (@WAS, @CIN)
Mike Fiers, SP OAK (@HOU, TEX)
Sonny Gray, SP CIN (@MIL, COL)
Chris Paddack, SP SD (@NYM, SF)
Yu Darvish, SP CHC (@SF, @MIL)
Wade Miley, SP HOU (OAK, @STL)
Kyle Gibson, SP MIN (NYY, @CHW)
RISKY START
Dakota Hudson, RP STL (@PIT, HOU)
Chris Archer, SP PIT (STL, @NYM)
Marco Gonzales, SP SEA (TEX, DET)
Martin Perez, SP MIN (NYY, @CHW)
CC Sabathia, SP NYY (@MIN, @BOS)
Daniel Ponce de Leon, RP (@PIT, HOU)
Chase Anderson, SP MIL (CIN, CHC)
Homer Bailey, SP OAK (@HOU, TEX)
Trevor Williams, SP PIT (STL, STL)
Danny Duffy, SP KC (@ATL, CLE)
Trevor Richards, SP MIA (@CHW, ARI)
Felix Pena, SP LAA (@LAD, BAL)
DON’T START
Jason Vargas, SP NYM (SD, PIT)
Spencer Turnbull, SP DET (PHI, @SEA)
Dylan Bundy, SP BAL (@ARI, @LAA)
Shaun Anderson, SP SF (CHC, @SD)
Jesse Chavez, RP TEX (@SEA, @OAK)
Ivan Nova, SP CHW (MIA, MIN)
Peter Lambert, SP COL (@WAS, @CIN)
Ryan Borucki, SP TOR (CLE, TB)
Aaron Brooks, RP BAL (@ARI, @LAA)
Dylan Covey, SP CHW (MIA, MIN)
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