Matt Bishop | June 17, 2019
STREAMER OF THE WEEK (10% Owned CBS, 1% ESPN, 2% Yahoo)
TOMMY MILONE, SP SEA
(1 – 1) 3.42 ERA 0.99 WHIP 26 K 26.1 IP 5 BB
8.89 K/9 1.71 BB/9 1.71 HR/9
Tommy Milone is 32 and hasn’t thrown over 100 innings in the majors since 2015, but after the Mariners called him up on 5/21, his stock is rising.
While Milone is currently pitching to his peripherals (3.42 ERA 4.23 FIP 4.18 xFIP) and boasts the highest K/9 (8.89) and lowest BB/9 (1.71) of his career, he is also sporting an impressive 20.2% K-BB, which is Top 20 in baseball within that time frame.
While his 1.7 HR/9 is currently the 12th worst mark in the league and could indicate even more positive regression by limiting the longball, his .235 BABIP is violently low compared to his .297 career and could also indicate regression. No matter how you spin it, he may have the arsenal to back it up.
After throwing his cutter for his entire career, Milone decided to ditch his cutter in 2019 to focus more on developing his slider, which he only introduced in 2017. The results have been favorable on his slider, resulting in an 11.9% swinging strike rate and an impressive 43.3% O-swing.
His bread and butter is his changeup, which is currently carrying a 14.3% swinging strike rate and a 5.4 pVAL. His swinging strike rate on the change currently resides in the Top 15 in baseball and opposing batters are only hitting .105 against the pitch. He has increased his change up usage more than 10% from 2018 and it is quickly becoming an elite pitch for the journeyman.
Tommy Milone has allowed 3 Earned Runs only one time this season and has struck out at least 6 batters in all but one game. My only concern with Milone is he has pitched in front of an opener in his last 2 starts and he may limit his upside:
3 GAMES WITH NO OPENER (1 – 1):
3.60 ERA 3.17 FIP 3.50 xFIP
1.20 WHIP 15.0 IP 19 K 24.2% K-BB
11.4 K/9 2.4 BB/9 1.2 HR/9
35.9% GB 41.0% FB 38.5% HARD
2 GAMES WITH OPENER (0 – 0):
3.18 ERA 5.64 FIP 5.10 xFIP
0.72 WHIP 11.1 IP 7 K 14.3% K-BB
5.7 K/9 0.8 BB/9 2.4 HR/9
26.5% GB 50.0% FB 44.1% HARD
Milone will face both Kansas City (Last in the AL Central) and Baltimore (Last in the AL East) at home this week, where he is currently pitching to a 2.93 ERA. Kansas City (.236) and Baltimore (.240) currently have the 7th and 8th worst batting averages in the league on the road. Kansas City (.229) also has the 2nd worst batting average against left handed pitching in the league and he should be in for two solid performances this week against two last place teams. Stream Dream Team always up with the scheme. Peep the splits:
WEEK 11 RESULTS:
Sandy Alcantara, SP MIA:
GAME 1: 5.0 IP 4 H 1 ER 4 BB 6 K (LOSS)
GAME 2: 6.0 IP 8 H 3 ER 2 BB 6 K (QS, NO DECISION)
MUST START
Justin Verlander, SP HOU (@CIN, @NYY)
Jose Berrios, SP MIN (BOS, @KC)
Clayton Kershaw, SP LAD (SF, COL)
Jacob deGrom, SP NYM (@ATL, @CHC)
Mike Soroka, SP ATL (NYM, @WAS)
Luis Castillo, SP CIN (HOU, @MIL)
SAFE START
Masahiro Tanaka, SP NYY (TB, HOU)
Patrick Corbin, SP WAS (PHI, ATL)
Cole Hamels, SP CHC (CHW, NYM)
Kenta Maeda, SP LAD (SF, COL)
Brandon Woodruff, RP MIL (@SD, CIN)
Jack Flaherty, SP STL (MIA, LAA)
Yonny Chirinos, RP TB (@NYY, @OAK)
Zack Wheeler, SP NYM (@ATL, @CHC)
Wade Miley, SP HOU (@CIN, @NYY)
Zach Eflin, SP PHI (@WAS, MIA)
Jake Arrieta, SP PHI (@WAS, MIA)
Lance Lynn, SP TEX (CLE, CHW)
Rick Porcello, SP BOS (@MIN, TOR)
Miles Mikolas, SP STL (MIA, LAA)
Joey Lucchesi, SP SD (MIL, @PIT)
Marcus Stroman, SP TOR (LAA, @BOS)
RISKY START
Mike Fiers, SP OAK (BAL, TB)
J.A. Happ, SP NYY (TB, HOU)
Zach Plesac, SP CLE (@TEX, DET)
Mike Clevinger, SP CLE (@TEX, DET)
Merrill Kelly, SP ARI (COL, SF)
Adrian Sampson, SP TEX (CLE, CHW)
Yusei Kikuchi, SP SEA (KC, BAL)
Tyler Skaggs, SP LAA (@TOR, @STL)
Michael Pineda, SP MIN (BOS, @KC)
Brett Anderson, SP OAK (BAL, TB)
Danny Duffy, SP KC (@SEA, MIN)
Jhoulys Chacin, SP MIL (@SD, CIN)
Jordan Yamamoto, SP MIA (@STL, @PHI)
Felix Pena, SP LAA (@TOR, @STL)
Anthony DeSclafani, SP CIN (HOU, @MIL)
Andrew Cashner, SP BAL (@OAK, @SEA)
DON’T START
Homer Bailey, SP KC (@SEA, MIN)
Shaun Anderson, SP SF (@LAD, @ARI)
Antonio Senzatela, SP COL (@ARI, @LAD)
Elieser Hernandez, RP MIA (@STL, @PHI)
Daniel Norris, SP DET (@PIT, @CLE)
Erick Fedde, SP WAS (PHI, ATL)
Tyler Beede, SP SF (@LAD, @ARI)
Gabriel Ynoa, RP BAL (@OAK, @SEA)
Edwin Jackson, SP TOR (LAA, @BOS)
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