Matt Bishop | June 2, 2019
STREAMER OF THE WEEK (30% CBS, 24% ESPN, 11% Yahoo)
Dylan Bundy, SP BAL (@TEX, @HOU)
(2 – 6) 4.58 ERA 1.24 WHIP 59.0 IP 60 K
GAME ONE: 6/04 @TEX (2nd in AL West)
GAME TWO: 6/09 @HOU (1st in AL West)
Strap in. Because I’m about to tell you to start Dylan Bundy…against the Astros…in Houston! Even with his 1.98 HR/9, which is the 6th highest rate in the league, Dylan Bundy has pitched relatively well this season and even better as of late. He is currently maintaining a career-low .255 BABIP, which has been guided by his career low 19.3% line drive rate. His groundball rate is up almost 3% from last season, while his flyball rate is down 2%. What’s more impressive is his 25.9% hard contact is down almost 10% from 2018, while his pull percentage is up. The rise in pull percentage could indicate he is keeping hitters off balance more:
Even with his velocity down almost 1 mph since last season, his plate discipline metrics are surprising. While his o-swing, or chase rate, and his swinging strikes rates are at career-high levels, his contact percentages are almost all career lows across the board:
Bundy’s fastball is hot garbage, fetching a -9.0 pVAL this season, which is actually up from -13.7 last season. Opposing batters are also hitting .316 against his heater. But we all know about this slider, which is elite. Opposing batters are currently hitting .137 against his slider, which is also inducing a 25.0% swinging strike rate and a 4.0 pVAL.
He is also carrying a 53.27 Whiff/Swing on his slider, which is the 2nd best rate in baseball:
While Bundy’s season stat line doesn’t look impressive, he has been incredible in May so far:
LAST 5 STARTS:
(2 – 2) 2.64 ERA 0.98 WHIP 7.6 K/9 2.3 BB/9
21.3% K 6.6% BB 21.8% Hard Contact
While Bundy’s peripherals indicate he may be getting a little lucky (2.64 ERA 4.03 FIP 4.33 xFIP), his slider has been incredible, yielding a 27.4% swinging strike rate in these 5 starts and a .067 batting average against. His strikeout rate is down significantly, but he is throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone and inducing less contact. If Bundy can get his fastball in order, this could be the turn we have been waiting for. Fingers crossed.
WEEK 9 RESULTS:
Michael Pineda, SP MIN
GAME ONE: 6.0 IP 3 H 3 ER 0 BB 6 K (ND)
GAME TWO: NO START – HIT THE INJURED LIST (KNEE)
MUST START
Blake Snell (@DET, @BOS)
Stephen Strasburg (CHW, @SD)
Aaron Nola (@SD, CIN)
Walker Buehler (@ARI, @SF)
Noah Syndergaard (SF, COL)
Chris Paddack (PHI, WSH)
Luis Castillo (@STL, @PHI)
SAFE START
Max Fried (@PIT, @MIA)
Kyle Hendricks (COL, STL)
Madison Bumgarner (@NYM, LAD)
Shane Bieber (MIN, NYY)
Mike Minor (BAL, OAK)
Masahiro Tanaka (@TOR, @CLE)
Frankie Montas (@LAA, @TEX)
Zach Davies (MIA, PIT)
Eduardo Rodriguez (@KC, TB)
Griffin Canning (@CHC, SEA)
Robbie Ray (LAD, @TOR)
RISKY START
Jon Lester (LAA, STL)
Yusei Kikuchi (HOU, @LAA)
Corbin Martin (@SEA, BAL)
Pablo Lopez (@MIL, ATL)
Reynaldo Lopez (@WAS, @KC)
Chase Anderson (MIA, PIT)
Devin Smeltzer (@CLE, @DET)
DON’T START
Ryan Weber (@KC, TBR)
Trevor Cahill (@CHC, SEA)
Wade LeBlanc (HOU, @LAA)
Daniel Mengden (@LAA, @TEX)
Genesis Cabrera (CIN, @CHC)
Eric Lauer (PHI, WSH)
Jeff Hoffman (@CHC, @NYM)
Drew Smyly (BAL, OAK)
Clayton Richard (NYY, ARI)
Ryan Carpenter (TB, MIN)
Steven Brault (ATL, @MIL)
Glenn Sparkman (BOS, CHW)
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