Tonight, Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season kicks off with a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins. While everyone loves Thursday Night Football, fantasy owners struggle with which players they should put in their starting lineups. To help them decide which players they should start and which they should sit, let’s dive into this week’s Thursday Night Fantasy Preview.
All stats are base on four-point per passing touchdown and PPR scoring.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback – Lamar Jackson
Other than Tom Brady, Jackson has been the most impressive quarterback this season. He has averaged 24.5 fantasy points per game this season, scoring at least 23.1 in three of the past four games. Jackson has thrown three or more touchdowns during that span twice, including last week against the Minnesota Vikings. He has also been his usual force on the ground, averaging 75 rushing yards per game this season. Tonight, he faces a Miami team that has struggled to slow down quarterbacks. They have given up at least 15 fantasy points to quarterbacks in all but one game this season. More importantly, the Dolphins have given up two or more passing touchdowns eight of their past nine games. Put Jackson in your lineup, and don’t think twice about it.
Running Back – Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell
This backfield has been a crazy mess all season long. After losing their top three running backs in the preseason, the Ravens added Latavius Murray, Freeman, and Bell to pick up the slack. Unfortunately, it has been a messy backfield that fantasy owners would like to avoid if possible. However, Murray will likely miss tonight’s game with a high ankle sprain, opening the door for Freeman to have a featured workload. In the two games Murray has missed, Freeman leads the backfield in snaps played with 86. By comparison, Bell has played 45 snaps in those games while Ty’Son Williams has played 39 snaps. More importantly, Freeman led the backfield in carries, rushing yards, targets, and fantasy points last week against the Vikings.
Tonight, Freeman and Bell will face a Miami defense that has slowed down running backs lately. Over the past four weeks, the Dolphins have held running backs to an average of 3.7 yards per carry, 60.5 rushing yards, and only 15.7 fantasy points per game. They have also given up only two rushing touchdowns during that span. The Dolphins have held running backs under 75 rushing yards and 20 fantasy points in every game since Week 6. With Murray out for tonight’s game, Freeman is a low-end RB2 option, while Bell is a touchdown or bust flex option in deeper leagues.
Wide Receiver – Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins
After averaging 11 fantasy points per game over the first two years of his career, Brown has turned into a star this season. He is currently the WR6 for the season, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game, scoring 19 or more fantasy points in all but two contests. More importantly, Brown has averaged 10.3 targets and 20.2 fantasy points per game over the past four games. Behind Brown on the depth chart has been either Bateman or Watkins, depending on the week. Bateman missed the first five games of the season because of injury. In those games, Watkins averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game. Then, Bateman made his season debut in Week 6, only for Watkins to miss the past three games. During that span, Bateman has averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game.
While Watkins is questionable for tonight’s game, he was listed as a full participant on Wednesday’s injury report and should play. With Watkins back, how will the snaps shake out between himself and Bateman? Watkins has played an average of 70.6 percent of the snaps per game this season. By comparison, Bateman has played an average of 64.7 percent of the snaps per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have given up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, giving up over 42 fantasy points per game. The Dolphins have also given up the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, giving up 192.8 receiving yards per game. This week, Brown is a must-start low-end WR1, while Bateman and Watkins are risky WR4s with upside, thanks to the matchup.
Tight End – Mark Andrews
Andrews has arguably been the best value tight end this season. Despite being a fourth or fifth-round pick, Andrews has averaged only 1.1 fewer fantasy points per game than Travis Kelce, a first-round pick. Over the past six games, Andrews has averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have struggled to defend tight ends this season. While they have held tight ends to 13.7 fantasy points per game this season, they have faced several below-average tight ends. In their matchups against the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, and New England Patriots, the Dolphins gave up an average of 20.9 fantasy points per game to their tight ends. Like Jackson, Andrew is a weekly staple of your fantasy lineup.
Defense/Special Teams
Historically, the Ravens have a talented and dominant defense. This season, however, the Ravens have a bottom-five D/ST. They are averaging only 2.4 fantasy points per game, scoring zero or negative fantasy points in over half their games this season. Furthermore, the Ravens D/ST has scored a total of three fantasy points over their past four games. However, they have a great matchup tonight against the Dolphins. They have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this season, giving up 8.9 fantasy points per game. Over the past two weeks, opposing D/STs have averaged 15 fantasy points per game against the Dolphins. Despite losing DeShon Elliott to a season-ending injury, the Ravens are a top-six D/ST this week.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa, Jacoby Brissett
Last week, the Dolphins surprised all of us when they announced at the last minute that Tua wouldn’t play against the Houston Texans. With Tua dealing with a fracture in the middle finger on his throwing hand, the Dolphins will again probably wait until right before kickoff to decide who will start at quarterback. However, if Tua gets the start, he is a mid QB2 this week. Over his past three games, Tua has averaged 21 fantasy points per game, scoring 15 or more fantasy points in every game. During that span, Tua has thrown six touchdowns and added another on the ground. Meanwhile, his backup has been far less productive in his starts.
The veteran Brissett has filled in admirably for Tua this season. However, Brissett has struggled to produce fantasy points when his number has gotten called. In the five games he has played at least 88 percent of the snaps this season, Brissett has averaged only 12.8 fantasy points per game, scoring over 15 fantasy points once. Meanwhile, the Ravens have held quarterbacks to 18.9 fantasy points per game this season, 1.3 fantasy points higher than the league average. However, when they have faced sub-par quarterbacks, the Ravens have shut them down. Furthermore, the Ravens held Justin Herbert to a season-low 11 fantasy points a few weeks ago. If Brissett gets the start tonight, fantasy owners need to find a better option for their team.
Running Back – Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed
Despite averaging 12.1 fantasy points per game this season, Gaskin has been very inconsistent on a weekly basis. In odd weeks, Gaskin has averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Gaskin has averaged only 5.2 fantasy points per game in even weeks. While you probably shouldn’t use that trend to predict his fantasy production, it shows how inconsistent Gaskin has been this season. Meanwhile, the Ravens have given up 26.4 fantasy points per game to running backs this season. They have given up over 100 rushing yards to running backs in four of their past five games, giving up an average of 93.2 rushing yards per game during that span.
More importantly, the Ravens have allowed running backs to average 5.3 receptions per game this season. They have given up five or more receptions to running backs in over half their games this season, including nine or more twice. Meanwhile, Gaskin is third on the team in receptions this season with 37. Over the past five weeks, Gaskin has averaged five receptions per game. Between the matchup and his role in the offense, Gaskin is a mid RB2 this week. His backup, Ahmed, has no fantasy aside from as a handcuff.
Wide Receiver – Jaylen Waddle, Mack Hollins
Stop where you’ve heard this one before: Will Fuller and DeVante Parker won’t play in this game because of injuries. The duo has played in a combined one game since Week 4. However, Waddle has steeped up without the veterans in the lineup. He has averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game, good for the WR23 on the season. Over the past month, Waddle has averaged 7.3 receptions on 10.5 targets for 16.9 fantasy points per game. He has been the WR6 during that span. Waddle has scored at least 15 fantasy points in three of those four games, thanks to his 24.7 percent target share. Thanks to all the injuries at wide receiver, Hollins is the top reserve on the depth chart.
Hollins was not part of the offense till the injuries to Fuller and Parker. Over the past four games, Hollins has averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game, scoring 9.3 or more fantasy points in three of those contests. More importantly, Hollins was second among wide receivers on the team in targets during that span. Meanwhile, the Ravens have held wide receivers to 33.5 fantasy points per game this season. They have kept wide receivers under 10 catches and 29 fantasy points in two of their past three games. Waddle will see enough volume in tonight’s game to finish the week as a mid WR2. Hollins, on the other hand, belongs on the wavier wire despite his recent production.
Tight End – Mike Gesicki
After scoring 7.1 total fantasy points over the first two weeks of the season, Gesicki has picked up his play. Over the past seven games, Gesicki has averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game, finishing as the TE2 during that span, only behind Andrews. While Gesicki has only scored 9.4 and 9.8 fantasy points over his past two games, he scored 21.5 and 19.5 fantasy points in the previous two games. More importantly, Gesicki faces the second-friendlies team against tight ends tonight.
The Ravens have given up an average of 18.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, giving up 11 or more fantasy points to the position in all but one game. They have given up 24 or more fantasy points to the tight end position in almost half their games this season, including a few weeks ago to C.J. Uzomah. This week, Gesicki is a plug-and-play high-end TE1.
Defense/Special Teams
While the Dolphins D/ST scored 18 fantasy points last week against the Texans, fantasy owners need to stay away from them. They have scored 31 fantasy points this season, with 58.1 percent coming in last week’s game. The Dolphins D/ST has also scored negative fantasy points in more games this season (two) than games with over five fantasy points (one). Plus, their opponent is far from a dysfunctional team. Opposing D/STs have averaged only 3.3 fantasy points per game against the Ravens this season. They have scored under six fantasy points in every game this season. Furthermore, it took the Vikings D/ST a kickoff return for a touchdown to score six fantasy points last week against the Ravens. Fantasy owners have no reason to trust the Dolphins D/ST this week.
Recap
Jackson: High-End QB1
Freeman: Low-End RB2
Bell: Avoid
Brown: Low-End WR1
Bateman: Avoid
Watkins: Avoid
Andrews: High-End TE1
Ravens D/ST: Mid D/ST1
Tagovailoa: Mid QB2
Brissett: Avoid
Gaskin: Mid RB2
Ahmed: Avoid
Waddle: Mid WR2
Hollins: Avoid
Gesicki: High-End TE1
Dolphins D/ST: Avoid
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