Kevin Walsh | October 5th, 2019
GAME THEORY
All my plays are based on DraftKings pricing. Its also important to note that when I list a player as a fade, I do not mean I will have 0% of them, but I will be way under the field as far as exposure goes, and likely will not play them on single entry lineups.
TOURNAMENT STACKS
Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, KeeSean Johnson
This “air-raid” offense sputtered a bit last week, and it will be interesting to see where the volume goes with both Christian Kirk and Damiere Byrd out due to injury, but I do know that Kyler should be unleashed here, especially against this pitiful Bengals defense. DJ and Fitz are the main targets, but Keesean has merit, too.
Houston Texans – Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Duke Johnson
I swear, one of these weeks, we are going to get a vintage Watson game where both Hopkins and Fuller score long touchdowns and win us a bunch of money. It was nearly last week, as Watson nearly missed both of them for 50+ yard touchdowns, and Watson was visibly mad about his throws. I will be right about Watson one of these weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard
While I think Tampa is gearing up their running game into a formidable weapon, this is not the week for it to be unleashed. The Saints are tough to play against, and Jameis is going to have to go to the air if he intends on beating this tough team. Godwin has the best matchup in the slot, but Evans is good enough to beat Marshon Lattimore also. Despite the tough opponent, the total on this game is still high, so you can feel confident rolling with some Buccaneers in your lineup.
Honorable Mentions: CIN, ATL, PHI, LAC
POSITION BY POSITION
I will refrain from continuing to mention the same players across sections, so these will be more about other players I am interested in outside of big game stacks. I will try to pick a player or two in each pricing tier (High, Middle, Low).
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson ($7,100) – Lamar is in a get-right spot against the surprising feisty Pittsburgh defense. If this game was in Baltimore, I would lean towards the running game being the big target here, but I think Jackson is quick enough to escape the pass rush and he wants to remind everyone that he is a quarterback, even after that dud they put up against Cleveland last week. It is strangely a must-win for them in this division game, and I could see the Steelers falling apart against this team’s athleticism.
Matt Ryan ($5,900) – Atlanta has been struggling hard, but lucky for them, so have the Houston Texans. Ryan has been solid statistically, it just hasn’t translated much to reality. His targets seem to shift depending on what the defense gives him (they gave him all the underneath last week, which is why Austin Hooper and Mohammad Sanu went off), but he has to lean on his talent if they want to win games. Seven total targets for Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley aren’t going to cut it, and I think Deshaun Watson should turn up the pressure on them and turn this into the shootout of the week.
Kirk Cousins ($5,300) – I know, I know, what the hell is Kirk Cousins doing here? While I don’t really think they will turn into some aerial assault offense this week to make Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen happy, I do think that Kirk needs to show everyone he is worth his contract. I am mentioning this because I think a lot of sharp people are thinking this, and we can use this to our advantage later. If you are multi-entering, I would grab a little taste of Cousins and company.
Honorable Mentions – Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton
Running Back
Dalvin Cook ($8,400) – This is where we can leverage the people playing Cousins lineups (as well as playing Diggs and/or Thielen). While everyone may believe that they turn to the air this week to make their studs happy, they could just as easily stick to the game plan and just run the ball down their opponent’s throat. Cook has been spectacular running behind this offensive line, and I don’t see how any of these Diggs narratives change that plan.
Leonard Fournette ($6,400) – Along with Christian McCaffrey, Fournette is the big chalk of the week (ironically, in the same game!), though for good reason. Carolina is stout against the pass but is towards the bottom of the league against the run. Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be out there forcing balls and dealing with that potent Panthers pass rush, so they should lean on Fournette for much of the game. It is hard to ignore his workload at this price, just be careful with your exposure.
David Johnson ($7,500) – If last week is any indication, the Bengals have issues with their run defense. The Steelers ran them over with creative run plays and the short passing game, and that lines up perfectly for a DJ slate breaker. I have mentioned my love of the Arizona offense, so this should be no surprise.
Joe Mixon ($6,100) – Personally, I dislike Mixon. Not so much his talent and his offensive line and scheme. He cannot be ignored this week in a get-right spot against the mediocre Cardinals defense. It’s strange to think that these two winless teams could provide a firestorm of offensive value, but there is plenty of merit to all the steam Mixon is garnering heading into Sunday.
Honorable Mentions – Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Wayne Gallman, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones ($7,700) – There is so much to like in this game, so going to the studs is going to typically be the best course of action. Julio had a down week last week because of the short passing game, but the Texans corners have been pretty bad so far, and I (and many others) see a bounce-back week coming for Julio and the Falcons.
Deandre Hopkins ($7,800) – On the other side of this game, Hopkins really hasn’t had that Nuk-type game yet. As I said with Watson, this slump can’t last forever, and this is a good a week as any for him to be completely unleashed. His ownership projection suggests he will be the highest-owned wide receiver of the week, and it’s for good reason. Fire him up.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000) – What does it take for Fitz to get a significant price bump? Granted he didn’t light the world on fire last week, the injuries to Kirk and Byrd make him far more valuable in the aerial attack of the Cardinals.
Beware Of – Auden Tate ($3,500) – His price and recency bias will make him a popular play, and while I cannot turn you away from playing him this week, I just ask you to beware of playing too much of him. This is an example of “bad chalk” – or at least what could end up being bad chalk. Buyer beware.
Honorable Mentions – Will Fuller, Chris Godwin, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($6,000) – Ertz is seeing targets, Carson Wentz is throwing plenty of touchdowns, we just haven’t seen the intersection of those two scenarios happen yet. Ertz should find paydirt against the Jets this week and could still have the potential to have a slate-breaking stat line.
Evan Engram ($5,800) – I think people will overreact to the opponent and think that Engram is a bad play against a good Vikings defense, but what will be overlooked is that the Vikings have not been great covering the middle of the field. Daniel Jones does get a weapon back this week in Golden Tate, but he already has that chemistry with Engram.
Tyler Eifert ($3,300) – I don’t like suggesting him, and I likely won’t have a ton of exposure to him, but I would not be doing my duty if I didn’t mention whatever receiving tight end gets to play against Arizona this week. If you watched the Bengals play in primetime last week, you should know to be very careful about your Bengals offense exposure as a whole and to tread lightly with Eifert.
Honorable Mentions – Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews
Defense/Special Teams
Patriots ($4,300) – Defense is stupid in DFS and the Patriots 20+ point average over four weeks pretty much proves that. Defense is largely random as far as pick-sixes and turnovers in general, but the Patriots seem to have an awfully soft schedule up front this year, and Colt McCoy isn’t in much danger of scoring a pile of points on them this week.
Ravens ($3,600) – The Steelers cannot continue to play this gimmicky wildcat offense and expect to have too much success. I would expect the Ravens to tighten up after letting Nick Chubb run all over them last week, and Rudolph doesn’t seem to be that dangerous in the passing attack – at least for what their coaching staff is letting him do. This game means too much to a viable contender versus the minor implications of the flailing Steelers.
Saints ($3,400) – The Saints shut down a Cowboys offense that was running over everyone. Now they are home against turnover-prone Jameis Winston. Depending on which version of Jameis we get on Sunday, the Saints could be piling up the turnovers with their relentless pressure and tight coverage.
Honorable Mentions – Eagles, Panthers, Falcons
Ownership Considerations
In this section, I will list my favorite player at each position that is projected to be less than 5% owned. These will sometimes be dart-throws, and some will be more conviction plays and leverage spots. Don’t go slamming all these guys in one lineup and expecting success. They are low-owned for a reason, folks.
QB – Philip Rivers ($5,800) – Denver hasn’t been the stout defense they have been in the past, but division games are always played tough, and I would expect Rivers needing to air the ball out still, especially since their defense is not stellar.
RB – Derrick Henry ($6,000) – The Bills are a tough matchup, but Henry gets his left tackle back from suspension in Taylor Lewan, and that should be a large boost to this running game.
WR – Juju Smith-Schuster ($6,400) – There has been some coach-speak this week about trying to get Juju the ball, and that wildcat stuff isn’t going to cut it this week against the Ravens. His price is criminally low, and it wouldn’t take much for him to pay this off.
TE – Evan Engram ($5,800) – Vikings aren’t that great across the middle, and the Giants are still trying to compete at this point in the season.
DST – Saints ($3,400) – If we get bad Jameis, this looks like a 20-point outing.
TWO MINUTE WARNING
Last week was a fairly even week for me, but I feel like I am improving each week in terms of process. I am just a play or two from breaking off a big one, and I am hoping this is the week I get off the schneid.
If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter @Walsh_Sports. I will answer any questions you have!
Let’s make that money this week!
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