With a thrilling 55-40 upset victory over the previously undefeated Los Angeles Rams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have suddenly become a hot topic of conversation again. Are they for real? Was this just a fluke?
After back-to-back, underachieving 5-11 seasons, it’s easy to understand why some would be skeptical. After all, we have seen this story before.
Just last season the team opened with a pair of nearly unthinkable upsets over the New Orleans Saints and defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles before the wheels started to come off the following week.
One way to differentiate skill from luck is to consult the analytics, and thus far, the numbers like what they’ve seen from the Buccaneers.
Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay seventh (10.7 percent) overall in team efficiency based on their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. A measure of play-by-play efficiency that incorporates the performances of offense, defense, and special teams. The percentage reflects a player or unit’s effectiveness as compared to a league-wide average.
Making that feat even more impressive, the Buccaneers are the only top-10 team in DVOA that has faced a top-10 schedule. A sign that the results thus far appear to be legitimate. Bottom line: The team has played good football against good football teams.
The defense leads with a -10.4 percent (sixth) in DVOA while posting a particularly strong -38.5 percent (first) in run defense. Over the last three weeks, the Tampa Bay defense has held Christian McCaffery, Saquon Barkley, and Todd Gurley to a combined 29 carries for 61 yards on the ground. Again, not just good, but good against top competition.
The offense has been no slouch either coming in at 5.1 percent (10th). As fans and viewers would imagine, this has largely been driving by the passing game (27.7 percent, ninth). While the running game has improved (24th in 2018, 20th in 2019), the big chunks of air yards are what make this unit go.
The individual performances have also been impressive. Quarterback Jameis Winston current sits at 10.7 percent good for 10th at the position.
Chris Godwin’s remarkable 62.5 percent tally is good for first place by a substantial margin. A mark that’s nearly 25 percent better than the next closest wideout. Mike Evans comes in at 13.5 percent (13th) despite being severely limited by illness in his first two games.
Second-year breakout running back Ronald Jones II is also liked by DVOA scoring 19.3 percent (seventh). For those wondering, Peyton Barber registers at -14.0 percent (25th). It sure looks like time to shift more of the workload to Jones moving forward.
It’s not all good news though. The special teams still represent the team’s biggest weakness. They currently sit at -2.7 percent (29th). This number is not only driven by missed and blocked kicks but mediocre returning and the second-lowest net average for qualifying punters in the NFL (36.6 yards, 28th).
What does all of this mean for the future? It could mean nothing if the team self-destructs again as it has the two years previous. However, the analytics paint a picture of a team that has played like a genuine contender against other legitimate contenders. It’s a great foundation to build on for the rest of the 2019 season. A campaign that may continue to defy expectations.
