Disclaimer: The following analysis assumes that the Pelicans retain Julius Randle.
Welcome to an NBA with new champions. With the Toronto Raptors securing the title over the Golden State Warriors, this has emboldened many teams to make moves.
The first domino to fall was Anthony Davis being traded to the Los Angeles Lakers in return for three players and three future first-round picks which included the No. 4 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. For the Lakers, it seems like a great decision to add a second star on the roster that missed the playoffs in 2019.
However, this move is franchise-altering for the Pelicans. With Davis, the Pelicans had a forward-facing direction, but they were unable to ever answer the bell when it really mattered. In the Davis era, the Pelicans had won exactly one playoff series. This came after they swept the Blazers in 2018. They have also made the playoffs only twice: 2015 and 2018.
With this trade, they acquire not one, not two, but three rotation pieces and an additional first-round pick in this draft, which they flipped to acquire two first rounders including No. 10 overall. What the Pelicans lost in star power, they gained back in roster depth, which is a critical ingredient in making the Western Conference Playoffs.
The Pelicans did not get the crown jewel of the Lakers trade package, Kyle Kuzma, but they did secure the services of Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Josh Hart. With a projected starting lineup of Ball, Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Zion Williamson, and Julius Randle, the Pelicans worked two starters and a key role player out of Anthony Davis.
The Pelicans are left with a gaping hole at the center position without the services of AD, but they have all of free agency to secure the position in case the Pels would prefer to have Williamson or Randle be the sixth man and have a traditional center in the team to take the pressure off of Jaxson Hayes.
While Ball was under an intense spotlight in Los Angeles, the mainstream media often failed to capture his total performance for the Lakers. Over two seasons with the Lakers, Ball averaged a line of 10-6-6.
There are obvious concerns with Ball’s health (only 99 games played out of 164 in two seasons) and his shooting, but a move out of the spotlight and into a growing young roster should foster growth for the former UCLA Bruin. Ball should assume the starting point guard position for the Pelicans.
Similar to Ball, Brandon Ingram has been under significant scrutiny as a Laker. Ingram had some bright flashes in his 200 games as a Laker, including pulling his scoring average up to 18 points per game in his third season.
While Ingram is subject to similar concerns as Ball with his shooting and durability, Ingram has high upside as an effective secondary creator. In the 2019 season, Ingram had a line of 18-5-3 on 50 percent from the field. One stat to note is Ingram’s increased accuracy from two-point range which has improved by about four percentage points each season.
Completing the triumvirate of new players is Josh Hart. While not as heralded as Ball and Ingram, Hart has been an effective role player for the Lakers over the course of the past two seasons.
Especially as a rookie, Hart was a productive option in the second unit with his ability to knock down the three at nearly 40 percent and make 55 percent of his twos. Good for 11.5 points per 36 in his career, Hart offers bench depth for the Pelicans.
While none of the three players are immediate needle-movers for the Pelicans, the three of them combined should push the Pelicans closer to the playoff hunt. While they can’t match Davis’s defensive prowess or his offensive production, an increase in depth will do a lot to balance the team’s wins. With the NBA season being a marathon more than a sprint, having three competent players over one star has some upside.
In addition to the three players from the Lakers, the Pelicans now possessed the first and fourth overall pick in the NBA draft. The first overall pick turned into Zion Williamson and the four overall pick turned into the eighth and seventeenth selections: Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
To make a run to the playoffs, the Pelicans desperately need at least one if not more of the active playoff teams to regress heavily in 2020. The likely culprits could be the seven-seeded Spurs or eight-seeded Clippers, but both of those teams are poised to be even better in 2020 with the Spurs having a variety of players returning from injuries and the Clippers in the sweepstakes for big-name free-agent talents.
Moving up the West standings, it seems unlikely that Oklahoma City, Utah, Houston, or Portland fall out of the playoffs. All four teams have a pair of star players and should be highly competitive in the West next season.
Moving into the top two spots, Golden State and Denver should make the playoffs in 2020. However, Golden State’s hold on the top of the west might have been shattered with the loss of Kevin Durant for the entire season and Klay Thompson for the majority of the season, but there is a very solid chance of the Warriors still make the playoffs.
For the sake of the Pelicans making the playoffs, the safest bet for missing the playoffs might have to go to the Warriors, based solely on injuries, and the Clippers, based solely on them not acquiring a big-name free agent.
The Pelicans would have to win about 50 games in the 2020 season which seems highly unlikely without a true star on the roster. Unless Williamson as a rookie or Brandon Ingram break out into star NBA players, a 50-win season may not happen in 2020.
However, the Pelicans will be in play for a playoff spot deep end of the season, and if the bar is set below 45 wins, they might just squeeze into the playoffs, however unlikely it seems after losing Davis.
The hopes and dreams of Pelicans fans lie on the shoulders of Zion Williamson, however, they now have the depth to be much better in 2020 than they were in 2019.
