Dozens of quarterbacks played in 2020. From league MVP Aaron Rodgers to the poor Kendall Hinton, the quarterback spectrum spanned a large gap. Noticing the best quarterback is a difficult science. Outside of exceeding rare cases, a bevy of quarterbacks leads the NFL in stats. Whether it is pure counting stats such as passing yards and passing touchdowns or rate stats such as QBR and PFF passing grade, each quarterback has a unique statistical outlook.
Pro-Football-Reference has a series of stats known collectively as adjusted passing stats. Similar to the reasonably common OPS+ and ERA+ from baseball, all stats are adjusted to a scale with 100 being average and higher numbers being better. For example, Peyton Manning’s earth-shattering 2004 season had a TD%+ of 168 because his touchdown percentage was 68 percent better than the average quarterback.
Rate stats can be just as valuable if not more valuable than season totals. A player may finish with a handful of extra pass attempts to post more touchdowns and yards, but other players may be more resourceful in those stats while having fewer attempts.
Nine stats will be used with the tallies being averaged together to form a comprehensive quarterback index.
Key:
Y/A+ = yards per attempt index
NY/A+ = net yards per attempt index
AY/A+ = adjusted yards per attempt index
ANY/A+ = adjusted net yards per attempt index
Cmp%+ = completion percentage index
TD%+ = touchdown percentage index
INT%+ = interception percentage index
Sack%+ = sack percentage index
Rate+ = passer rating index
In 2020, 48 quarterbacks attempted at least 50 passes. They will be ranked from worst to best. Keep in mind, this is a passing-only exercise, so quarterbacks with rushing value will be underrated slightly. Extraneous factors such as surrounding weapons, injuries, offensive line, or play calling will affect the overall stats, but the hope is that over hundreds of snaps, a quarterback’s true performance will appear.
No.48: Phillip Walker, Carolina Panthers, 57.6 Grade
Walker attempted 56 passes across four appearances (one start). The raw stats are quite ugly as the XFL MVP launched five interceptions in his last 48 attempts to settle with a passer rating of 45.8. His lone start against Detroit went reasonably well (66.6 PFF grade), but Walker has a long road to being a worthy NFL starter. Walker ended with an 8.93% interception rate which nearly tripled that of any quarterback other than the next quarterback in this ranking. He was the only quarterback to not average 3.00 adjusted yards per quarterback.
No.47: Jake Luton, Jacksonville Jaguars, 64.0 Grade
Had PFF grades been the scale for this exercise, Luton would have placed last. He had a ridiculously poor 39.8 overall grade and 37.7 passing grade. The counting stats perhaps paint an even worse picture. Luton tossed just a pair of touchdowns compared to six interceptions. He posted a 54.5 passer rating and an anemic 39.9 QBR across 110 attempts in three starts for the Jaguars. Luton ranked 47th in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, interception rate, passer rating, and adjusted yards per attempt. He ranked last in yards per attempt.
No.46: Jeff Driskel, Denver Broncos, 72.3 Grade
Keeping in the theme of atrocious quarterback play, Driskel ranked 46th in both PFF passing and overall grade. He also ranked 46th in completion percentage. While he did have a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio, his 3.13% interception rate places him at 41st. He was 45th in adjusted net yards per attempt. His 78.4 passer rating ranked 40th. Perhaps the most damning stat for Driskel is his Sack%+. Of the 2,531 quarterback seasons since 1969 to feature 50 attempts, Driskel’s 2020 ranked 2,518th in Sack%+. Driskel took a sack on an incomprehensible 14.7% of dropbacks.
No.45: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles, 74.4 Grade
Speaking of sacks, Wentz posted a mammoth 10.3% sack rate in 2020. This contributed to a legendarily poor ANY/A+ mark of 71. Of the 753 quarterbacks to attempt 400 passes in a season, Wentz’s 71 is tied for 749th. In 2020, Wentz ranked 42nd in completion percentage, t-32nd in touchdown rate, and 44th in interception rate. PFF painted a slightly better picture as Wentz ranked 36th in overall grade and 38th in passing grade. Wentz posted career-low marks in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating. Now with the Indianapolis Colts, Wentz is the lowest quarterback who is expected to start in 2021.
No.44: Sam Darnold, New York Jets, 76.6 Grade
Darnold posted career-low marks in touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, and QBR in a messy 2020 season. He ranked in the bottom 10 in all four stats. His 72.7 passer rating narrowly edged Wentz for worst among regular starters (46th overall). Darnold ranked 40th in overall PFF grade and 45th in passing grade. Darnold was one of two quarterbacks to have 350 pass attempts and a negative touchdown-to-interception rate. The Panthers hope most of the ugly Darnold seasons will be left in the green side of East Rutherford.
No.43: Dwayne Haskins, Washington Football Team, 78.7 Grade
PFF gave Haskins an overall grade of 48.4 and a passing grade of 47.5. These ranked 47th, and he joined Luton as the only quarterbacks to post sub-50.0 marks. The counting stats post a slightly nicer picture as Haskins was 39th in completion percentage and 38th in interception rate. While Pro-Football-Reference’s Approximate Value statistic is not included in the underlying mathematics in the grade, his +0 AV ranked 48th. Haskins has a new beginning as a developmental quarterback with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Haskins did improve in one metric: QBR. In 2019, he posted a 28.0 QBR. In 2020, he had a 31.0 QBR. (This is an improvement, but for context, Luton had a 39.9 QBR in 2020.)
No.42: Colt McCoy, New York Giants, 81.8 Grade
McCoy is a statistical outlier in this pack of players. While many of his contemporaries were tossing interceptions left and right, McCoy ranked eighth in interception rate. He was more interception-averse than Drew Brees and Tom Brady. However, he was dead last in touchdown rate, contributing to a TD%+ of 70 and a Rate+ of 78. McCoy ranked 39th with a 60.6 overall PFF grade. He was the 37th-ranked passer (62.8). Now the backup quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, McCoy owns a career 8-22 record and a 78.1 passer rating.
No.41: Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 83.6 Grade
Unfortunately for Giants fans, Jones is the second Giant in the bottom 10. Jones made progress in the interception department, improving from an Int%+ of 94 in 2019 to a perfectly league-average 100 in 2020. However, Jones fell in six of the other eight categories. He remained stagnant in Y/A+ (87) and a slight improvement in Cmp%+. PFF diverges from pure stats as he earned a 17th-ranked 78.4 PFF grade and 18th-ranked 74.4 passing grade.
Had Jones’ fumbling issues been included, he could have been even lower. He lost six fumbles in 2020.
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