Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This is my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Each week, I make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them as a survivor for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.
Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.
Straight-up Record: 79-41-1 (12-3 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 63-57-1 (6-9 last week)
Confidence Points: 313.4 (+90.9 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 58.7 (-16.9 last week)
Thursday Game:
49ers at Cardinals (SF -10)
49ers 31, Cardinals 16
Confidence: 10
Spread Confidence: 7.8
The 49ers have asserted themselves as an elite team. The defensive line will have a field day as Arizona will likely not be able to find the end zone multiple times.
Sunday Games:
Texans at Jaguars (HOU -1.5)
Texans 29, Jaguars 20
Confidence: 9.1
Spread Confidence: 8.9
The Texans will win this game.
Redskins at Bills (WSH +9.5)
Bills 23, Redskins 15
Confidence: 10
Spread Confidence: 3.5
I do not trust the Bills to blow out an opponent.
Vikings at Chiefs (MIN -1)
Vikings 27, Chiefs 24
Confidence: 2.1
Spread Confidence: 2.0
If Mahomes plays, I think the Chiefs will prevail, but Mahomes is currently listed as doubtful, so I will lean with the Vikings.
Jets at Dolphins (NYJ -3)
Jets 20, Dolphins 15
Confidence: 0.0
Spread Confidence: 0.0
I will not touch this game with a 50-foot pole.
Bears at Eagles (PHI -5)
Eagles 23, Bears 13
Confidence: 8.2
Spread Confidence: 6.6
The Eagles are just the better football team.
Colts at Steelers (IND -1)
Colts 17, Steelers 13
Confidence: 4.6
Spread Confidence: 4.6
This game could go either way. Jacoby Brissett is better than Mason Rudolph, but the Steelers have been playing so well defensively lately. The Colts should win, but Pittsburgh could steal a victory.
Titans at Panthers (TEN +4)
Titans 20, Panthers 17
Confidence: 3.1
Spread Confidence: 4.1
This boils down to me trusting Ryan Tannehill more than Kyle Allen. I think the Titans will sneak out with a victory.
Lions at Raiders (DET +2)
Lions 23, Raiders 20 F/OT
Confidence: 2.7
Spread Confidence: 2.9
I think these are two evenly-matched teams. Neither team has a healthy amount of star power, but both teams are fairly well-coached, and this game should be one of the better ones of the week.
Buccaneers at Seahawks (SEA -6)
Survivor Pick: Seahawks 33, Buccaneers 20
Confidence: 10
Spread Confidence: 10
Seattle is clean with the ball. Tampa Bay is not. I expect Seattle to force a couple of turnovers and turn this game into a shellacking.
Browns at Broncos (CLE -3)
Browns 30, Broncos 15
Confidence: 10
Spread Confidence: 10
Do you trust Brandon Allen? Neither do I. The Browns will roll.
Packers at Chargers (GB -3.5)
Packers 31, Chargers 21
Confidence: 10
Spread Confidence: 9.7
The Packers are the vastly superior football team. Aaron Rodgers should have yet another dominant performance, and the pass rush should make Philip Rivers turn into a mess.
Sunday Night Football:
Patriots at Ravens (BAL +3.5)
Patriots 23, Ravens 20
Confidence: 0.0
Spread Confidence: 0.0
There are approximately 500 ways I could analyze this game. The only thing I am confident in is that this game will be one of the best games of the season.
Monday Night Football:
Cowboys at Giants (DAL -7)
Cowboys 31, Giants 18
Confidence: 9.5
Spread Confidence: 4.5
The Giants are in absolute free fall. The Cowboys had a resounding win over the Eagles two weeks ago, and I expect them to replicate the thumping on Monday night.
