Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Each week, I will make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.
Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.
Straight-up Record: 67-38-1 (12-2 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 57-48-1 (9-5 last week)
Confidence Points: 222.5 (+71.8 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 75.6 (+14.8 last week)
Thursday Game:
Survivor Pick: Redskins at Vikings (MIN -16)
Vikings 34, Redskins 14
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 7.6
The Vikings are better in all facets. They will roll.
Sunday Games:
Giants at Lions (NYG +7)
Lions 24, Giants 21
Confidence: 4.6
Spread confidence: 4.9
I am not too thrilled to choose this game. The Giants will be healthier than they have been in recent weeks, but the Lions are the better team.
Buccaneers at Titans (TEN -2.5)
Titans 18, Buccaneers 14
Confidence: 3.9
Spread confidence: 3.4
I expect the Titans to force a handful of turnovers and escape with the victory.
Chargers at Bears (CHI -4)
Bears 24, Chargers 17
Confidence: 5.0
Spread confidence: 4.6
The Chargers have been a tremendous disappointment, and the Bears are at home. Please win, Chicago.
Seahawks at Falcons (SEA -3.5)
Seahawks 35, Falcons 20
Confidence: 9.6
Spread confidence: 8.3
Russell Wilson will return to form against a terrible secondary.
Jets at Jaguars (NYJ +6)
Jets 21, Jaguars 20
Confidence: 1.9
Spread confidence: 5.4
I am playing the number more than the team here.
Eagles at Bills (BUF -1.5)
Bills 21, Eagles 15
Confidence: 5.6
Spread confidence: 5.5
The Bills have a fantastic defense, and the Eagles are banged up in the secondary. The Bills should win.
Bengals at Rams (LAR -13)
Rams 38, Bengals 21
Confidence: 9.2
Spread confidence: 7.0
The Rams got back into a rhythm against the Falcons, and they welcome an even worse team this week. The Rams will dominate.
Cardinals at Saints (ARZ +10.5)
Saints 27, Cardinals 21
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 5.6
Besides the Bears, the Saints have not blown anyone out. I think the Cardinals will be competent enough to keep the game within 10 points
Broncos at Colts (IND -5.5)
Colts 24, Broncos 13
Confidence: 7.6
Spread confidence: 4.1
The Colts are on a roll. Here’s to a fifth win.
Panthers at 49ers (CAR +5.5)
49ers 21, Panthers 16
Confidence: 9.4
Spread confidence: 8.1
Both defenses are on fire. I think the 49ers will prevail, but the Panthers should keep it reasonably close.
Raiders at Texans (HOU -6.5)
Texans 41, Raiders 30
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 8.1
The Texans are just flat out a better team. Watson will go for 350 yards.
Browns at Patriots (NE -13)
Patriots 28, Browns 10
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 9.7
The Patriots are on pace to be the greatest team in NFL history. Watch out, Cleveland.
Sunday Night Football:
Packers at Chiefs (GB -4)
Packers 51, Chiefs 20
Confidence: 9.1
Spread confidence: 8.7
Yes, you read that right. I predict that the Packers will score 50 points on the road. Aaron Rodgers had his best game as a professional last week, and he plays an inconsistent defense this week. Patrick Mahomes has not yet been ruled out, but I would still favor the Packers.
Monday Night Football:
Dolphins at Steelers (PIT -14.5)
Steelers 23, Dolphins 6
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 9.9
The Steelers have played exceptionally well on the defensive end. While I think this game will be closer than two touchdowns for the majority of the game, the Steelers will likely capitalize on a late drive to cover the spread.
