Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Each week, I will make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.
Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.
Straight-up Record: 55-36-1 (9-5 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 48-43-1 (9-5 last week)
Confidence Points: 150.7 (+29.1 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 60.8 (+31.9 last week)
Thursday Game:
Chiefs at Broncos (KC -3)
Chiefs 28, Broncos 23
Confidence: 4.7
Spread confidence: 2.4
As much as I want to pick the Broncos to pull off the upset, Patrick Mahomes will return to form and pick up the win.
Sunday Games:
Rams at Falcons (LAR -3)
Rams 36, Falcons 31
Confidence: 8.1
Spread confidence: 6.2
The Falcons are hot trash. The Rams should score lots of points.
Dolphins at Bills (BUF -17)
Bills 24, Dolphins 3
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 7.2
The Bills will win the game. However, I do not trust the offense to overwhelm the Dolphins as other teams have. I think the Bills will barely cover.
Jaguars at Bengals (JAX -3.5)
Jaguars 31, Bengals 20
Confidence: 6.4
Spread confidence: 4.5
D.J. Chark and Leonard Fournette should have standout games as the Jaguars roll through the Bengals.
Vikings at Lions (MIN -1.5)
Vikings 24, Lions 19
Confidence: 5.4
Spread confidence: 5.3
Kirk Cousins has looked good against bad defenses. The Lions are not a bad defense, but they are not an elite unit. Cousins should be productive.
Raiders at Packers (GB -4.5)
Packers 28, Raiders 16
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 6.4
I trust the Packers to secure a sixth victory.
Texans at Colts (HOU +0)
Texans 31, Colts 28 (F/OT)
Confidence: 1.6
Spread confidence: 1.6
I do not have much interest in betting on this game. It should be an excellent divisional matchup between two potential playoff teams.
Cardinals at Giants (ARZ +3)
Cardinals 34, Giants 30
Confidence: 3.2
Spread confidence: 4.0
The Arizona offense has heated up over the last couple weeks, and I do not think that the Giants will provide much resistance.
Survivor Pick: 49ers at Redskins (SF -9.5)
49ers 35, Redskins 13
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 9.8
I feel that a 9.5-point spread is disrespectful to the undefeated 49ers. They should roll.
Chargers at Titans (TEN-2)
Titans 16, Chargers 10
Confidence: 2.6
Spread confidence: 2.3
I expect this game to be very low scoring.
Saints at Bears (NO +3)
Saints 20, Bears 10
Confidence: 8.7
Spread confidence: 9.5
The Saints will flex their strength with a win in Chicago.
Ravens at Seahawks (SEA -3.5)
Seahawks 34, Ravens 29
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 5.4
This game will likely be the game of the week. As Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson exchange exciting plays, I anticipate that the Seahawks will score late to cover the spread.
Eagles at Cowboys (DAL -3)
Cowboys 25, Eagles 20
Confidence: 5.2
Spread confidence: 3.1
While both of these teams are reeling from recent losses, I expect the Cowboys to bounce back through the legs of Ezekiel Elliott.
Monday Night Football:
Patriots at Jets (NYJ +10)
Patriots 24, Jets 18
Confidence: 6.2
Spread confidence: 4.9
Sam Darnold is a game-changer at quarterback, and I think he turns a couple of three-and-outs into field goals to keep the Jets within the spread.
