Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Each week, I will make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.
Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.
Straight-up Record: 20-11-1 (9-7 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 15-16-1 (5-11 last week)
Confidence Points: 78 (+17.6 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 2.4 (-23.2 last week)
Thursday Game:
Titans at Jaguars (TEN -1.5)
Titans 24, Jaguars 18
Confidence: 8.7
Spread Confidence: 8.9
Jacksonville has not beaten Tennessee since 2016. Sadly for the Jags, I think this trend continues.
Sunday Games:
Lions at Eagles (DET +7.5)
Eagles 23, Lions 20
Confidence: 1.7
Spread confidence: 2.1
As of right now, we do not know the full extent of how badly injured the Eagles were. I think they win, but it should be close.
Jets at Patriots
**Survivor Pick**
Patriots 37, Jets 6 (NE -17.5)
Confidence: 10.0
Spread confidence: 10.0
I send my condolences to Luke Falk. The Jets will be ruthlessly buried. 17.5 is a gargantuan number.
Raiders at Vikings (MIN -7.5)
Vikings 28, Raiders 16
Confidence: 9.8
Spread confidence: 6.6
My Week 3 resolution is to trust the favorites, so here I am choosing the Vikings to prevail.
Ravens at Chiefs (BAL +6.5)
Ravens 36, Chiefs 33 F/OT
Confidence: 0
Spread confidence: 9.8
Ravens-Chiefs has Game of the Year potential. I will sit back and watch two of the most dynamic quarterbacks exchange blows. Get your popcorn ready!
Falcons at Colts (ATL +2.5)
Falcons 21, Colts 17
Confidence: 8.9
Spread confidence: 9.4
While Colts fans are currently sending me hate mail, I think the Falcons are the more talented team and will win on the road.
Broncos at Packers
Packers 23, Broncos 13
Confidence: 9.9
Spread confidence: 8.7
The Green Bay defense is really good, and they get to face a below-average offense.
Dolphins at Cowboys (DAL -21)
Cowboys 41, Dolphins 3
Confidence: 10.0
Spread confidence: 9.9
21 is a massive number. Dallas has been firing on all cylinders while the Dolphins are getting worse by the day.
Bengals at Bills (BUF -5.5)
Bills 24, Bengals 17
Confidence: 8.9
Spread confidence: 7.0
The Bills have the offensive and defensive talent to stifle the Bengals.
Giants at Buccaneers (TB -6.5)
Buccaneers 31, Giants 13
Confidence: 9.8
Spread confidence: 7.8
Daniel Jones gets to make his first NFL start on the road. His first start will almost certainly be a loss. I hope you have a wonderful career, Daniel.
Panthers at Cardinals (ARZ +2.5)
Cardinals 23, Panthers 20
Confidence: 6.3
Spread confidence: 7.4
The Cardinals will need to trade field goals in for touchdowns, but I anticipate that they score enough to topple the Panthers.
Steelers at 49ers (no line)
49ers 31, Steelers 16
Confidence: 9.7
Spread confidence: N/A
Due to Ben Roethlisberger getting injured, there is currently no line for the game. With that said, I expect the 49ers to prevail and start 3-0 for the first time since 2012.
Saints at Seahawks (no line)
Seahawks 24, Saints 19
Confidence: 10.0
Spread confidence: N/A
Similar to the Steelers-49ers game, there is currently no line. I had the Seahawks winning regardless of Drew Brees playing or not.
Texans at Chargers (HOU +3)
Texans 28, Chargers 24
Confidence: 3.8
Spread confidence: 8.5
At the end of the day, I would rather have the ball in Deshaun Watson’s hands than Philip Rivers’s. I think Watson leads a clutch drive to secure the victory.
Sunday Night Football:
Rams at Browns (LAR -3)
Rams 31, Browns 27
Confidence: 8.6
Spread confidence: 8.2
The Browns get to celebrate their first Sunday Night Football game in 11 years with a likely loss.
Monday Night Football:
Bears at Redskins (WSH +6.5)
Bears 17, Redskins 13
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 6.0
Chicago is the better team, but I do not trust their offense to score enough points to cover the spread.
