Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Each week, I will make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.
Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.
Straight-up Record: 11-4-1
Against the Spread Record: 10-5-1
Confidence Points: 60.4
ATS Confidence Points: 25.6
Thursday Game:
Panthers at Buccaneers (CAR +5.5)
Panthers 28, Buccaneers 17
Confidence: 9.1
Spread Confidence: 7.4
The Panthers lost to a great Rams team while the Bucs looked poor against an average 49ers team. The Panthers will roll.
Sunday Games:
Colts at Titans (TEN -3)
Titans 26, Colts 20
Confidence: 8.0
Spread confidence: 4.4
The Titans were clicking on all cylinders in Week 1, and I expect them to defeat the Colts.
Chargers at Lions (LAC -2.5)
Chargers 38, Lions 18
Confidence: 9.9
Spread confidence: 9.8
The Lions fell off a cliff late, and I expect the Chargers to control this game all the way through.
Bills at Giants (BUF -2.5)
Bills 31, Giants 21
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 9.9
Survivor Pick
It is incredibly risky to use a survivor pick on a road team, but I expect the Bills to handle the Giants.
Cardinals at Ravens (BAL -13.5)
Ravens 31, Cardinals 16
Confidence: 9.8
Spread confidence: 2.7
The Ravens beat the Dolphins by 49 last week. While they will likely not replicate that smackdown, they should cover (barely) against the Cardinals.
Patriots at Dolphins (NE -14.5)
Patriots 41, Dolphins 14
Confidence: 9.9
Spread confidence: 9.9
New England looked like the best team in football. Miami looked like the worst. There is only one outcome here.
Cowboys at Redskins (WSH +7)
Cowboys 24, Redskins 21
Confidence: 8.8
Spread confidence: 6.2
Washington scored a touchdown in the final minute to cover the spread against the Eagles last week. They will need to keep it close with Dallas.
Jaguars at Texans (JAX +9.5)
Texans 31, Jaguars 24
Confidence: 6.2
Spread confidence: 4.1
Houston narrowly lost to the Saints, and they have home-field advantage. With the division rivalry in mind, I think the Texans win by a possession.
Seahawks at Steelers (SEA +4)
Seahawks 26, Steelers 21
Confidence: 5.2
Spread confidence: 8.9
I expect this to be a close game throughout with Seattle prevailing late. It is very risky to pick the underdog on the road, but I will take it here.
49ers at Bengals (CIN +1.5)
Bengals 23, 49ers 19
Confidence: 6.0
Spread confidence: 6.1
The Bengals went to Seattle and nearly toppled the mighty Seahawks. This week, I think they defeat the Niners at home.
Vikings at Packers (MIN +3)
Vikings 27, Packers 25
Confidence: 5.6
Spread confidence: 7.1
For the third consecutive game, I choose the underdog to win outright. The Packers did look good against the Bears, but I think the Vikings will win.
Chiefs at Raiders (OAK +8.5)
Chiefs 35, Raiders 27
Confidence: 9.7
Spread confidence: 1.3
The Raiders surprised me Monday night, but I do not think they will beat the Chiefs. I’ll take the Raiders to cover, but I do not have much confidence there.
Saints at Rams (NO +3)
Rams 21, Saints 20
Confidence: 2.7
Spread confidence: 4.1
I have no leaning one way or another in this instance. I think the game will be close, but a three-point spread is incredibly tough to cover without winning outright.
Bears at Broncos (CHI +1)
Bears 17, Broncos 13
Confidence: 8.4
Spread confidence: 8.5
I hate these two teams because they crushed me last week. In the battle of Week 1 disappointments, I think the Bears escape the grasp of 0-2.
Sunday Night Football:
Eagles at Falcons (PHI +0)
Eagles 27, Falcons 17
Confidence: 9.4
Spread confidence: 9.4
After a slow start, these teams went in opposite directions, the Eagles started to play well while the Falcons continued to get drubbed by the Vikings. I think the Eagles win handily.
Monday Night Football:
Browns at Jets (NYJ +2.5)
Jets 24, Browns 21
Confidence: 5.1
Spread confidence: 6.0
The Browns and Jets suffered two different collapses. The Browns cut the Titans’ lead to two before surrendering 28 straight points to lose by 30. The Jets flew a 16 point lead to the Bills. For these two teams, I think the Jets have the easier problem to fix (kicking as opposed to discipline), so I will take the Jets outright.
