Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Survivor Picks: 9-1 (over)
Straight-up Record: 144-94-1 (11-5 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 113-118-8 (7-8-1 last week)
Confidence Points: 522.8 (+52.3 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 25.1 (-5.7 last week)
Browns at Bengals (CLE -2.5)
Browns 26, Bengals 20
Confidence: 8.4
Spread confidence: 7.6
The Browns will roll.
Bears at Vikings (CHI -3)
Bears 20, Vikings 14
Confidence: 6.5
Spread confidence: 5.4
The Vikings have nothing to play for, and they have been ravaged with running back injuries. The Bears will win.
Colts at Jaguars (IND -3.5)
Colts 24, Jaguars 19
Confidence: 8.3
Spread confidence: 4.4
The Colts will keep the Raiders alive heading into the late games.
Falcons at Buccaneers (TB -1)
Buccaneers 25, Falcons 23
Confidence: 1.4
Spread confidence: 1.3
In what could be one of the most entertaining games of the week, I think the Bucs narrowly win.
Redskins at Cowboys (WSH +10.5)
Cowboys 27, Redskins 17
Confidence: 9.6
Spread confidence: 6.3
The Cowboys are superior, but I think the Redskins will keep it close enough to cover the spread.
Saints at Panthers (NO -13)
Saints 31, Panthers 17
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 7.0
This one can go either way. The Panthers have a legitimate argument of being the worst team in the NFL, and I expect that Panthers team to show up.
Eagles at Giants (PHI -4)
Eagles 24, Giants 18
Confidence: 8.1
Spread confidence: 6.4
The Eagles might be able to make a run in the playoffs.
Steelers at Ravens (BAL +2)
Ravens 20, Steelers 13
Confidence: 5.4
Spread confidence: 5.5
Even without playing a handful of starters, the Ravens should prevail.
Jets at Bills (NYJ +1.5)
Jets 20, Bills 17
Confidence: 1.1
Spread confidence: 1.2
The Jets are peaking at the right time, but it is too late to do anything but hurt their draft pick.
Dolphins at Patriots (MIA +16)
Patriots 28, Dolphins 14
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 1.7
I expect the game to be significantly closer than the 43-0 beatdown in Week 2.
Packers at Lions (DET +12.5)
Packers 24, Lions 14
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 3.4
Despite being a critic of both teams, I think the Lions will miraculously keep the game interesting for a while.
Titans at Texans (HOU +3.5)
Titans 24, Texans 21 (F/OT)
Confidence: 6.7
Spread confidence: 5.6
The Titans will book a trip to the playoffs on a do-or-die field goal at the end of overtime.
Chargers at Chiefs (KC -9)
Chiefs 38, Chargers 7
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
The Chiefs will get me to move them to the No. 1 spot in my power rankings by dismantling the Chargers. I also think this will be Philip Rivers’s final game for the Chargers.
Cardinals at Rams (LAR -5)
Rams 28, Cardinals 20
Confidence: 9.1
Spread confidence: 6.3
The Rams always beat up on the Cardinals, and Sunday should be no different.
Raiders at Broncos (OAK +3.5)
Raiders 34, Broncos 31 (F/OT)
Confidence: 4.1
Spread confidence: 6.0
To add to the chaos, Oakland will send Denver to overtime where a game-winning field goal fails to send the Raiders to an improbable playoff berth because of results in other games.
49ers at Seahawks (SEA +3.5)
Seahawks 24, 49ers 22
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 8.8
If I am being honest, I am only taking the Seahawks because they are at home in prime time. The 49ers are a better team, but that never seems to matter to the Seahawks. A peewee team quarterbacked by Russell Wilson and coached by Pete Carroll could beat the 2019 All-Pro team as long as the game is in Seattle and it is in prime time. Am I that cynical? Yes.
