Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Survivor Picks: 9-1 (over)
Straight-up Record: 133-89-1 (8-8 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 106-110-7 (4-11-1 last week)
Confidence Points: 470.5 (+21.6 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 30.8 (-42.2 last week)
Saturday Games:
Texans at Buccaneers (TB +3)
Texans 28, Buccaneers 27
Confidence: 5.1
Spread confidence: 1.9
The Buccaneers have been playing their best football in years and they will keep it close enough against Houston.
Bills at Patriots (BUF +6.5)
Patriots 20, Bills 17
Confidence: 8.3
Spread confidence: 7.2
Buffalo pushed the Pats to the limit in their first matchup before Josh Allen was knocked out with an injury. The second matchup should be even closer.
Rams at 49ers (LAR +6.5)
49ers 26, Rams 21
Confidence: 7.5
Spread confidence: 1.3
The 49ers will eliminate the Rams from playoff contention. The only formality is 60 minutes of football.
Sunday Games:
Jaguars at Falcons (ATL -7)
Falcons 28, Jaguars 20
Confidence: 6.1
Spread confidence: 3.9
Atlanta has been rolling in recent weeks, and Jacksonville isn’t sufficient enough to stop the Atlanta Draft Pick Destroyers.
Saints at Titans (NO -2.5)
Saints 27, Titans 24
Confidence: 7.8
Spread confidence: 6.6
The Saints are in an old-fashioned duel for the NFC’s top seed, and I think they win their 12th game.
Giants at Redskins (NYG +2.5)
Giants 20, Redskins 17
Confidence: 0.3
Spread confidence: 0.5
Daniel Jones is returning for the Giants and they are coming off a big win over the Dolphins. I think they win again.
Steelers at Jets (PIT -3)
Steelers 20, Jets 13
Confidence: 1.0
Spread confidence: 0.7
The Steelers were messy offensively against the Bills, but the Jets are a step down in terms of talent. Pittsburgh will strengthen their grip on the final AFC playoff spot.
Bengals at Dolphins (CIN +0)
Bengals 24, Dolphins 21
Confidence: 1.0
Spread confidence: 1.0
The Bengals will ride Joe Mixon to a victory.
Panthers at Colts (CAR +7)
Colts 24, Panthers 20
Confidence: 4.3
Spread confidence: 4.4
Will Grier is an enigma, but I think the Colts will walk out with a close win.
Ravens at Browns (CLE +10)
Ravens 31, Browns 24
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 6.7
Playing for their playoff lives, I think the Browns lose a close game to Baltimore.
Lions at Broncos (DEN -7)
Broncos 24, Lions 14
Confidence: 8.2
Spread confidence: 5.3
Drew Lock will return to form and roll against a terrible Detroit defense.
Raiders at Chargers (OAK +6.5)
Chargers 25, Raiders 21
Confidence: 3.2
Spread confidence: 4.5
The Raiders are in free fall, but the Chargers will likely turn the ball over too many times to run away with the game.
Cowboys at Eagles (DAL -1.5)
Cowboys 27, Eagles 20
Confidence: 7.7
Spread confidence: 7.3
Dallas will win the NFC East crown.
Cardinals at Seahawks (SEA -9.5)
Seahawks 39, Cardinals 20
Confidence: 9.5
Spread confidence: 4.2
Divisional games are the worst. Seattle should get their second two-possession win of the season.
Sunday Night Football:
Chiefs at Bears (CHI +6)
Chiefs 24, Bears 20
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 4.8
Chicago should play well enough defensively to cover the spread.
Monday Night Football:
Packers at Vikings (GB +5.5)
Packers 24, Vikings 21
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 8.5
The Vikings are reeling on the injury front, but they will likely have locked up a playoff berth by kickoff. Green Bay will win.
