Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This is my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Survivor Picks: 9-1 (over)
Straight-up Record: 114-76-1 (7-9 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 95-93-3 (8-8 last week)
Confidence Points: 397.9 (+2 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 67.0 (+35.2 last week)
Thursday Game:
Cowboys at Bears (DAL -3)
Cowboys 23, Bears 16
Confidence: 5.3
Spread confidence: 4.6
Neither of these teams has played to the level that they anticipated in the off-season. I think the Cowboys finally beat a half-decent squad.
Sunday Games:
Panthers at Falcons (ATL -3)
Falcons 24, Panthers 17
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 5.9
The Panthers have fallen off a cliff. Kyle Allen has completed his metamorphosis into a pumpkin. The Falcons should win.
Ravens at Bills (BUF +5.5)
Ravens 27, Bills 22
Confidence: 7.2
Spread confidence: 8.0
The Bills will use their defense and Devin Singletary to keep the game within striking distance.
Bengals at Browns (CLE -8)
Browns 35, Bengals 19
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
Remember when Baker Mayfield played the Bengals in 2018? Expect that.
Redskins at Packers (GB -13)
Packers 41, Redskins 20
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 8.7
The Packers are nearly unstoppable at home. They will cruise to an easy win.
Lions at Vikings (DET +13)
Vikings 24, Lions 14
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 6.2
The Lions are bad, but they generally play Minnesota close. I do not think they will be blown out.
49ers at Saints (SF +2.5)
Saints 27, 49ers 26
Confidence: 2.9
Spread confidence: 3.4
This is as close as it gets in the NFL. The 49ers should have an advantage in getting to Drew Brees, but Sean Payton will remember he has Alvin Kamara.
Dolphins at Jets (MIA +5.5)
Jets 28, Dolphins 24
Confidence: 0.8
Spread confidence: 6.2
I think I get the Dolphins wrong every single week. The Dolphins have shown promise in recent weeks with gritty performances against the Colts and Eagles resulting in wins. I think they keep it relatively close, and they could win.
Colts at Buccaneers (IND +3)
Colts 23, Buccaneers 20 F/OT
Confidence: 6.2
Spread confidence: 8.3
This is the kind of game that Jameis Winston turns the ball over several times, and the Buccaneers will burn the footage of Winston at Florida State.
Broncos at Texans (DEN +9)
Texans 27, Broncos 20
Confidence: 9.1
Spread confidence: 9.5
This is my call of the week. The Texans are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots. I expect some letdown against the Broncos, but the Texans will almost certainly win.
Chargers at Jaguars (LAC -3)
Chargers 33, Jaguars 14
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
The Jaguars have been the worst team in football over the last few weeks.
Titans at Raiders (TEN -2.5)
Titans 34, Raiders 26
Confidence: 9.5
Spread confidence: 9.2
The Raiders are reeling after a series of poor offensive performances. The Titans have a pedestrian defense, but I think they will do enough on offense to knock off the Raiders.
Chiefs at Patriots (KC +3)
Chiefs 21, Patriots 17
Confidence: 6.3
Spread confidence: 6.7
Patrick Mahomes is in a little slump at the moment, but the defense has been otherworldly in recent weeks. I think the defense picks up yet another solid performance while Mahomes puts up enough points on the Patriots’ defense.
Steelers at Cardinals (ARZ +2.5)
Steelers 20, Cardinals 18
Confidence: 3.6
Spread confidence: 3.6
These teams have thwarted me weekly. I think the game will be close, and a T.J. Watt forced fumble will let the Steelers return to Pittsburgh with a win.
Seahawks at Rams (SEA -1)
Seahawks 27, Rams 24
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
The Seahawks simply do not lose primetime games. (If you were wondering, yes, I did write that identical line for Seattle’s game last week.)
Monday Night Football:
Giants at Eagles (PHI -9.5)
Eagles 38, Giants 10
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
I think the Eagles finally coordinate an effective offensive and defensive performance and dismantle the Giants on national television. It will not be as bad as the 59-24 win over the Redskins in the Michael Vick era, but I think the Eagles will shellack the Giants.
