Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Survivor Picks: 9-1 (over)
Straight-up Record: 107-67-1 (7-7 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 87-85-3 (7-7 last week)
Confidence Points: 395.9 (+31.3 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 31.8 (-1.8 last week)
Thursday Games:
Bears at Lions (CHI -3)
Bears 20, Lions 13
Confidence: 7.2
Spread confidence: 5.5
Feel free to sleep in on Thanksgiving, as this one will be a snooze fest.
Bills at Cowboys (DAL -6.5)
Cowboys 28, Bills 20
Confidence: 6.4
Spread confidence: 2.1
The Cowboys should let Ezekiel Elliott feast on a relatively porous Bills rush defense. If Elliott has a good day, the Cowboys will win.
Saints at Falcons (NO -7)
Saints 31, Falcons 17
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 7.9
Can lightning strike twice? My answer is no. Saints will win.
Sunday Games:
Jets at Bengals (NYJ -3.5)
Jets 31, Bengals 9
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
This is money in the bag. NEXT!
Titans at Colts (TEN +2.5)
Colts 20, Titans 18
Confidence: 3.9
Spread confidence: 3.1
I think a last-second field goal will decide the game.
Eagles at Dolphins (PHI -9)
Eagles 27, Dolphins 16
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 5.1
I hate trying to guess the Dolphins. I have routinely fallen on the wrong side of their spread, but I think the Eagles will prevail by multiple scores.
Packers at Giants (GB -6.5)
Packers 35, Giants 20
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
This is the kind of game that Aaron Rodgers lights up the opposition for 350 yards and three touchdowns, and everyone tells me that he should be in the MVP race. Good luck, Giants.
Browns at Steelers (CLE -2)
Browns 24, Steelers 16
Confidence: 3.8
Spread confidence: 2.9
With Myles Garrett suspended and Mason Rudolph benched, this game should be slightly less chaotic. I think the Browns will complete the sweep and continue to pursue the wild card.
Redskins at Panthers (WSH +10)
Panthers 24, Redskins 17
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 4.3
Christian McCaffrey will be given the ball about 100 times during the game.
Buccaneers at Jaguars (TB +1)
Buccaneers 31, Jaguars 13
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
I think this is free money. The Jaguars are in one of their worst stretches as a franchise, and the Buccaneers have an explosive offense with two absurdly good wide receivers.
49ers at Ravens (BAL -6)
Ravens 35, 49ers 28
Confidence: 7.2
Spread confidence: 4.4
In the battle of goliaths, the Ravens have one colossal advantage: the run game. The Ravens have far and away the most dynamic rushing attack in recent NFL history, and the 49ers have a subpar run defense. I think the Ravens take advantage and roll.
Rams at Cardinals (ARZ +3)
Cardinals 21, Rams 20
Confidence: 3.2
Spread confidence: 3.3
The Rams are reeling after a series of poor offensive performances. The Cardinals have a pedestrian defense, but I think they will do enough on offense to upset the Rams.
Chargers at Broncos (LAC -2.5)
Chargers 24, Broncos 19
Confidence: 8.1
Spread confidence: 6.7
The prodigal son returns! Derwin James will likely play on Sunday, and I think he will energize the Chargers to a win.
Raiders at Chiefs (KC -10)
Chiefs 41, Raiders 28
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 8.1
The Raiders just got clobbered by the Jets. Patrick Mahomes will quadruple the pain.
Sunday Night Football:
Patriots at Texans (NE -3)
Patriots 19, Texans 13 (F/OT)
Confidence: 7.0
Spread confidence: 4.3
The Patriots have been sputtering offensively, but their defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. I think they will be able to force Deshaun Watson into a critical interception or two and walk away with an 11th win.
Monday Night Football:
Vikings at Seahawks (SEA -3)
Seahawks 31, Vikings 21
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 5.1
The Seahawks simply do not lose primetime games, especially at home. I doubt Kirk Cousins has a good performance, and I expect Russell Wilson to have a showcase performance that could get the MVP back in his grasp.
