Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Survivor Picks: 9-1 (over)
Straight-up Record: 100-60-1 (11-3 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 80-78-3 (9-5 last week)
Confidence Points: 364.6 (+64 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 33.6 (+28.2 last week)
Thursday Game:
Colts at Texans (IND +3.5)
Texans 24, Colts 21 (F/OT)
Confidence: 0
Spread confidence: 1.1
The Colts have a history of winning in Houston, but I think the Texans will slip away with a narrow win, taking control of the AFC South.
Sunday Games:
Buccaneers at Falcons (ATL -4.5)
Falcons 38, Buccaneers 30
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 1.8
The Falcons have been on a roll inside the division, dispatching the Saints and Panthers resoundingly. I anticipate that they impose their will on the Buccaneers.
Broncos at Bills (BUF -4)
Bills 24, Broncos 19
Confidence: 7.5
Spread confidence: 2.6
Josh Allen has played well of late, and I think he will continue to play well despite a step up in competition.
Giants at Bears (NYG +6)
Giants 21, Bears 17
Confidence: 1.3
Spread confidence: 4.1
The Giants beat the Bears in overtime last season. I think the Giants could pull off the upset again and ruin some survivor leagues.
Steelers at Bengals (PIT -6.5)
Steelers 20, Bengals 3
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 4.4
Yuck. The Steelers have a lousy offense, but I think the defense will play well enough that the Steelers win by more than a touchdown.
Dolphins at Browns (MIA +10.5)
Browns 31, Dolphins 21
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 6.4
I am playing the number here. 10 points is a lot to bet on, and I think the Dolphins will keep it reasonable enough to warrant their selection against the spread.
Panthers at Saints (NO -10)
Saints 27, Panthers 14
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 6.2
I generally do not like taking divisional games with this large of a spread, but the Panthers are unraveling before our eyes. The Saints will win big.
Raiders at Jets (OAK -2.5)
Raiders 26, Jets 21
Confidence: 8.4
Spread confidence: 4.3
With all due respect to the Jets, the Raiders are the better team. Jon Gruden has them playing phenomenal football, and I think they will beat the Jets and cover.
Seahawks at Eagles (SEA +1.5)
Seahawks 23, Eagles 21
Confidence: 1.4
Spread confidence: 1.5
Russell Wilson is my MVP through 11 weeks, and I think he puts on another quality performance to wrestle the MVP away from Lamar Jackson.
Lions at Redskins (DET -3.5)
Lions 24, Redskins 14
Confidence: 0
Spread confidence: 0
Jeff Driskel versus Dwayne Haskins? No, thank you.
Jaguars at Titans (TEN -3)
Titans 27, Jaguars 21
Confidence: 6.1
Spread confidence: 5.6
The Titans have won three of Ryan Tannehill’s four starts, and a win here is necessary for the Titans to keep pace in the division and wild card races.
Cowboys at Patriots (DAL +6.5)
Cowboys 21, Patriots 20
Confidence: 1.1
Spread confidence: 3.6
Yes, I have the Cowboys going into Foxboro and pulling off a stunning upset. The Cowboys are better than the Eagles offensively, and I do not think the Patriots are good enough offensively to pressure the sleeping Dallas defense. I think this will be one of the games of the week, and I trust Dak Prescott to make the necessary plays to pull out a victory.
Packers at 49ers (GB +3)
Packers 25, 49ers 20
Confidence: 2.0
Spread confidence: 2.3
Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Jimmy Garoppolo.
Monday Night Football:
Ravens at Rams (BAL -3)
Ravens 31, Rams 20
Confidence: 6.2
Spread confidence: 5.1
The Ravens are officially the hottest team in the NFL while the Rams have been asleep for a few weeks. Over the last few weeks, the Ravens have a strong argument as to being the NFL’s best offense and best defense, so I think they continue their roll and beat the Rams.
