Matt Bishop | July 26, 2019
RR = Receiving Routes Run
%Rush = Percentage of team’s rushes (Red Zone)
PTS P/S = Fantasy Points per Snap
PTS P/T = Fantasy Points per Touch
*Most stats below are for players who played 50% of their teams overall offensive snaps or more.
SLEEPERS
CHRIS CARSON, RB SEA ( ADP 56.4, RB27)
I know dude. Rashaad Penny is the future of this Seahawks backfield and should dethrone Carson as the primary back in Seattle. But I think people are forgetting how good Carson really was last season.
In the last seven weeks of the 2018 season, Carson carried the ball 136 times (first in NFL) for 654 yards (third in NFL) and seven touchdowns (first in NFL). In that span, he averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game, while his 0.52 points per snap ranked 1st in the NFL and his 0.86 points per touch ranked 8th in the league. And while Carson was only targeted 1.7 times per game in this span, he avoided 23 tackles, which again ranks first in the NFL. In fact, Carson’s 45 avoided tackles on the season also ranked first in the league.
Seattle ran the ball a league-leading 52.4% of the time, while no other team even cracked the 50% mark. Penny will eventually win the role, but you know Carson ain’t going out without a fight. You are going to have to handcuff Carson with Penny or Penny with Carson, but you may have to draft them almost back to back, being their ADPs are very close (56.4 to 82.4). But no matter who wins the role, they will be productive with the run volume available in Seattle.
DAVID JOHNSON, RB ARZ (ADP 7.2)
I know he already broke out once, but this season could be tasty. Johnson had 100% of the Cardinals goal-line carries (inside the five-yard line) last season. This led the NFL by a wide margin and only Chris Carson (RB SEA) was second with 86.7% of the Seahawks goal-line carries.
In fact, Johnson led the league in percentage of goal-line carries in almost every metric including percentage of carries inside the 20-yard line (74.4%) and inside the 10-yard line (76.2%).
We know what Johnson can be and you know you are investing a first-round draft pick on him this year, but let’s not forget that both the Cardinals offense and defense were among the worst in the NFL last season and the offense was playing from behind almost every week. Yes, the goal line carries and touchdowns are low in comparison to the rest of the players on this list, but with a new regime in town and an electric playmaker in Kyler Murray, this team can only get better. With a few more red zone attempts, Johnson could exceed his seventh overall ADP.
ZAY JONES, WR BUF (ADP 388.5)
Jones had 39.5% of the Bills total red-zone targets last season, which was the second-highest percentage in the NFL, only trailing Davante Adams (41.9%). He also had 33.3% of the Bills red zone targets inside the 10, which was the third-best mark in the NFL. And while his 17 red-zone targets only ranked 19th in the league last season, this is clearly an indicator that he is a trusted option by his young signal-caller. He should be free this season and can only get better.
BREAKOUTS
KENYAN DRAKE, RB MIA (ADP 53.0, RB25)
Drake only played 59% of his team’s offensive snaps, which was the 16th most among running backs last season. And while he yielded 41% of the work to Frank Gore, Drake finished as the 10th highest scoring running back in standard-scoring leagues in 2018.
Not only that, but Drake also finished eighth in fantasy points per snap (0.38) and fourth in fantasy points per touch (1.20).
All this while never having more than 14 carries in a game. In fact, Drake had double-digit carries in only five games last season (14, 11, 13, 12, 11). With Frank Gore out of town and a full workload as a bell cow back, Drake’s improved receiving skills could bode well for his fantasy value and help him outperform his current ADP.
BUST
KYLE RUDOLPH, TE MIN (ADP 142.6, TE14)
Rudolph had the fourth-most receiving routes (538) by a tight end in the NFL last season. And while he was only targeted 76 times (10th in NFL), his 1.18 yards per route run ranks 28th in the league among Tight Ends.
While Rudolph continues to see consistent and elite volume every season, he seems to have a problem getting open and that may be a problem that is hard to fix. This is sad because his 84.2% catch percentage led all tight ends last season. I am aware this may be a no-brainer, but I am avoiding Rudolph everywhere this season.
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