Rumblings around the hockey world this week have revealed that Leafs forward Mitch Marner intends on testing his value in free agency, exercising his RFA rights to negotiate with other teams.
Reports have come out that he is seeking a contract valued at 10-11 million per season.
There is little doubt that Marner is worthy of such a hefty deal; in three seasons with Toronto, he has registered 61, 69, and 94 points, including a career-high 26 goals this past campaign. Any team that tries to negotiate with Marner and sign him to the price tag of over 10 million dollars would be required to compensate the Maple Leafs with 4 first-round picks in accordance with the NHL’s offer sheet rules.
The interesting scenario with the Leafs, however, is the one where they are able to keep Marner on their books.
The Leafs salary situation is a nightmare for GM Kyle Dubas to navigate this summer, having to pay RFA’s Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson and Mitch Marner to extensions. All three are expected to receive raises based on their play, which will leave less money to go around for players like UFA Jake Gardiner and Ron Hainsey.
If the Leafs can resign Marner, or choose to match an offer sheet he receives from another club in the offseason, they would have three forwards signed for over $10 million per season. John Tavares, the big ticket free-agency acquisition, and franchise star Auston Matthews. Trailing right behind them are forwards Patrick Marleau and William Nylander who make 6.25 million and 7 million, respectively.
Signing players to such lucrative deals has had a tendency to hinder a franchise’s ability to win in the playoffs. The only other teams in the league with 2 players making over 10 million are the Blackhawks with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane and the Kings with Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. The Blackhawks were able to win 1 more championship the season after they signed their deals. Since that win, Chicago has struggled to surround their franchise players with talent due to cap constraints. They were able to win because they had valuable players on relatively cheap deals or still on their entry-level contracts.
The Kings, on the other hand, haven’t been able to replicate the sustained success that they had from their 2 Stanley Cup victories ever since they extended Kopitar and Doughty long-term.
Other teams with two high-valued players have had similar success. The Dallas Stars, have two making over 9.5 million in Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, and are currently one of the more top-heavy teams in the league and haven’t even made a run to the Cup final with those two players.
Similarly, Edmonton’s power couple of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl make 20 million combined a season and haven’t sniffed the playoffs since they were inked to their contracts.
The one outlier in this trend are the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby signed to deals combining for just over 18 million a season. The tandem has led the Penguins to back-to-back championships, but are just now hitting salary cap troubles.
Toronto could be trying to replicate the Penguins’ success, but the difference is that Pittsburgh won a championship before they paid all of their superstars. Crosby and Malkin proved themselves as winners, whereas Marner, Matthews and Tavares haven’t led Toronto out of the first round in three attempts.
The fact of the matter is that Marner is going to get his money from the Leafs, or from another team. If the Leafs do sign him, they might be signing away their chances at winning a Stanley Cup in the future.
