There have been 12 weeks gone by in what is easily the most consuming sport in the world. Each first-round rookie has had some changes in their game, whether it be for the better or not depends on the player and coaching. For some, injuries have taken a toll and limited the development for their first year.
Since 2020, this scale has been the guideline for the Author’s analysis on grading the draft class. When assigning each grade, readers should understand that each grade is based on three factors: (1) the play of the individual, (2) the usage by the coach, and (3) the respected value of each player for where they were drafted. There have been some updates on the grading scale, including where the player projects – are they an all-pro player, do they belong in the average tier, or are they bad. As for the Grading Scale, I’ve illustrated what each grade means:
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Grading Scale for NFL 2021 Rookies |
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Click here if you want to see the rationale and analysis on the first draft grades of the 2021 season.
Click here if you want to see the rationale and analysis on the second draft grades of the 2021 season.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
The Jaguars have a significant issue, and it is at the receiver position. The drops are ending critical third-down drives and have hindered the momentum of the offense when it does get going. The drops have also prevented big plays- an example of this is cornerback turned receiver Jamal Agnew dropping two 20+ yard catches in Week 9 and Week 10. Aside from Agnew, Lawrence’s most ‘reliable’ target is Dan Arnold, who has also had several drops. Receiver is a top priority for this team. That said, there are still rookie mistakes Lawrence is making, such as missing open targets, ball placement which limits receivers yards after catch (that is when they catch it), and the odd mental mistake.
Let’s talk about the positives. The Jaguars rank slightly above in pass blocking. However, it’s largely due to Lawrence’s ability to maneuver the pocket. He elevated the play of a lackluster offensive line. His mobility out on the run is good, but underutilized, and will be something that defenders need to keep an eye on. Moreover, Lawrences high-end flashes are there, where he can make the 1% throws game to game. While the overall play of Lawrence has been up and down, he’s still making plays that show why he was the first overall pick. The grade goes from a B+ to a B, as Lawrence has been good but has been inconsistent over the last few weeks.
Grade After the Draft: A+
Grade After Week 5: B+
New Grade: B
2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Wilson only played Week 7, which limits the second grade. A knee injury has taken him out since. One note, however, is the offense has been better when Wilson wasn’t playing. Largely due to Mike White (and Joe Flacco) taking easy throws and check-downs, which were lacking for Wilson. That aside, the grade goes to B grade, as we have not seen any play since Week 5, which is somewhat concerning for Wilson’s development. While Wilson showed flashes early on in the season, hopefully, there will be a tangible change in play (such as taking easy completions) coming back from the injury.
Grade After the Draft: A-
Grade After Week 5: B+
New Grade: B
3. San Francisco 49ers (via Miami Dolphins from Houston Texans) – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
This grade remains a B, even though Lance hasn’t played any snaps since Week 5. The author believes it is for the best that he sits and believes the process of this draft pick deserves some recognition. A ‘B’ grade is awarded for the long-term thinking of this organization. Lance should be able to learn and develop this year. His potential is significant, and he will be able to show off his play next year.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade After Week 5: B
New Grade: B
4. Atlanta Falcon – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Is Pitts the best receiver on the team? Give it to the end of the season. Pitts is proving to be a difference-maker on this offense, which has not had Calvin Ridley. More attention has gone Pitts’ way from Week 8 to Week 11. The scary thing, he’s still able to produce despite this (not including the New England game). His freakish body control and elite movement skills are on display week to week.
The biggest difference for Pitts is the target share on the offense has gone up. Matt Ryan is going to Pitts in difficult situations, and the play-calling is giving him more opportunities to shine. He’s quickly becoming one of the best tight ends in the league and is an effective piece for this offense. Week after week, Pitts continues to be dominant and shows he has an elite upside and is given the A- grade.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade after Week 5: B
New Grade: A-
5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
(Note from the Author: One analysis of mine was that Chase was a generational prospect and will break Jefferson’s Rookie yardage record. So I’ll admit there is *some* bias here.)
The longevity of Chase’s high-level performances is significant. He is consistently beating good defensive backs and being a force for the offense. No other performance describes his play this year better than when he went against Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who is considered one of the top players at his position. Chase went off for one touchdown and 201 receiving yards on eight receptions. Even on his worst performance yet, he had six receptions for 49 yards and was moving the chains. Chase is still the best offensive rookie this year, largely due to high-level play against good teams. He deserves the A grade and continues to be a game-changer for the Bengals.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade After Week 5: A
New Grade: A
6. Miami Dolphins (via Philadelphia Eagles) – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Waddle gets better every week in his route running, which is allowing him more opportunities. Nuances that have improved include taking better angles for leverage and a better understanding of the coverages he’s faced. In addition, Waddle has looked good against good competition, showing deadly separation against a good Ravens defense.
Overall, it is exciting to see such an explosive weapon be more involved. However, Waddle needs more deep targets where he can show off his deep ball catching and tracking ability. The sky’s the limit for Waddle, who’s upside to be a top 10 receiver in the league if he stays healthy and is afforded the opportunity. He’s given a B+ as the A- range is awarded to players who have demonstrated game-changing ability, consistency, and pro bowl upside, of which Waddle has some left to prove he can do.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade After Week 5: B
New Grade: B+
7. Detroit Lions – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
The change to right tackle occurred playing the Steelers(!), and Sewell registered zero pressures against. In short, this is somewhat indicative of the play Sewell has had since Week 6. He’s been extremely good as a rookie. While there has been the odd penalty, it’s encouraging to see a rookie tackle show high-level reps. In the run game, it has been similar to pass blocking. He’s had dominant plays where he creates lanes for the running game. Overall, while the last six weeks have been good, they warrant a B+ grade. If Sewell continues to show high-level play, he could have an A- by the end of this year.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade After Week 5: B-
New Grade: B+
8. Carolina Panthers – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Horn’s man coverage and press ability were special when he was on the field. While the B+ is maintained as Horn was exceptional, it should be noted that it is more of an injury grade. Still, if the team re-signs Stephon Gilmore, it will be exciting for fans to see him and Horn on the field at the same time. Horn is back at practice now, but there is no indication he will play for a while.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade After Week 5: B+
New Grade: B+
9. Denver Broncos – Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
If the Broncos had a winning record, Surtain would be the contender for rookie of the year. As a rookie cornerback, he’s been extremely good. In man coverage, he’s consistently contesting throws his way while being reactive in zone coverage. There is the odd completion which is reaction speed – something that will improve with experience. The play-to-play consistency is incredible and is showing that Surtain can be a top corner at his position if he continues to improve his play. The grade is reflective of the consistency, and if he continues to play well against good opponents, he’ll see an even better grade at the end of the season.
Grade After the Draft: B+
Grade After Week 5: A-
New Grade: A-
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via Dallas Cowboys) – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama.
Smith has been an excellent receiver, capable of elevating the play of Jalen Hurts. He’s one of the reasons Hurts has played so well the last few weeks. Smith has shown that he can be a successful outlier in the NFL. The new question is, how good can he be? Is Smith a perennial pro-bowler or a 1000 yard receiver? As it stands, a 1000 yard receiver is excellent, and what he projects too. He can create separation so easily that Hurts can be inaccurate and still make a complete pass. Altogether, while the production has gone up, the play is borderline A- material. With similar production and consistency, the grade can go up, but as it stands, a B+ is given for how well Smith has played.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade After Week 5: B+
New Grade: B+
11. Chicago Bears (via New York Giants) – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
In an analysis of Fields, it is important to keep reminding oneself that the Bears have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. At the same time, Fields has shown some improvements inside the pocket, which makes his development nerve-wracking as a whole. His rookie year has seen highlight-reel plays and scrambles and some production in structure. He has done this despite a supporting cast that has failed him. The offensive line has amplified his weaknesses and forced greater strain on Fields’ play.
Fields has flashed special play-making ability, which is extremely encouraging. The pocket mobility and quick reads will be the difference between a good player and a great player. Therefore, anything lower than a B is an unfair assessment, as Fields has shown flashes despite the supporting cast, and coaching has failed him.
Grade After the Draft: A+
Grade After Week 5: B+
New Grade: B
12. Dallas Cowboys – Micah Parsons, LB/EDGE, Penn State
(Note: The Author criticized this pick heavily as it didn’t look like there was a way onto the field. Obviously, with the release of Jaylon Smith, Parsons will only be on the field more.)
Parsons should have defensive rookie of the year wrapped up in two or three more games. The on-field consistency has been astounding for a rookie linebacker. Not only has he been reliable against the run, but he’s been one of the best blitzers at the position. His natural athleticism shows up with outside the tackle runs and quarterback scrambles. In addition, the coaching staff has put him in a position to succeed, limiting his pass coverage work in the last few weeks. He’s still developing in coverage, and with his play recognition, he could be one of the most effective in all aspects of the linebacker position.
The team has allowed him to get after the passer, and he’s been a force. Parson has elite upside with his pass rusher tools. His edge-rushing talent is on display game to game, showing effective quickness and nice hand usage, both of which help him beat good offensive linemen. Parsons has been a difference-maker for the Cowboys and should be a pro bowler as a linebacker. If his high-level play continues and he develops more, he could be best fit as a linebacker. The A- grade is awarded based on pro bowl upside. If the high-level play against good competition continues, he moves up to an A.
Grade After the Draft: B-
Grade After Week 5: B+
New Grade: A-
13. Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Slater has played well week to week against high-level competition. Slater has only given up two sacks and 11 pressures in total. The pass sets are impressive and show his smooth but powerful play. In the run game, he has been getting better but has shown flashes. Slater should be talked about becoming a franchise tackle, but the author believes he’s been one of the Chargers’ best players in general. If he’s given more responsibility and less assistance from chips this year, he could have been an A+ player. As it stands, the grade is still an A, as he should be a rare pro bowler as a rookie.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade After Week 5: A
New Grade: A
14. New York Jets (via Minnesota Vikings) – Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC
The pass blocking for Vera-Tucker has not been good thus far. He’s getting beat with refined pass-rushing moves and quickness and has been somewhat of a liability for this offense. The problem is there have not been any good games in pass protection. Vera-Tucker has excelled in the run game, showing stability and control when driving forward. He has the potential to be an elite run blocker who clears lanes and helps his running back get extra yardage.
Overall, it is typically difficult for rookie guards to be consistent in their first year. However, Vera-Tucker’s play has been debilitating for some drives. He gets a B- grade as a whole, as the run blocking has been B+ level, but the pass blocking has been C- worthy.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade After Week 5: B
New Grade: B-
15. New England Patriots – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Mac Jones has one of the best pass-blocking lines and a cast of receivers that amplify his strengths. Jones is an excellent reader of defenses post-snap. His timing is excellent and allows him to hit short and quick throws extremely effectively. He’s extremely accurate in the intermediate and has the ball placement to allow his receiver some run after catch ability.
However, his downfield throws, play when the team needs to come from behind, and arm strength is somewhat limited. These elements will be the test of Jones’ career and dictate how successful can be. It is possible to improve all facets of those crucial elements, but as it stands, he’s an extremely effective game manager. While the stats are flashy for a rookie, Jones gets a B+ as he has been good, but the supporting cast has made his play better. If he continues his pace and shows he can lead a comeback, he will be in contention for an A- grade.
Grade After the Draft: B+
Grade After Week 5: B
New Grade: B+
16. Arizona Cardinals – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Collins had a shoulder injury that limited him from Week 7 to Week 9. However, he wasn’t starting over Tanner Vallejo and Jordan Hicks, who are both below average. To be honest, aside from injury, Collins has had limited opportunities that don’t make any sense. He needs more NFL experience against the run and in coverage. With that said, the defensive staff has left the author scratching his head a second year in a row. Will Collins have to wait till year 2 to replace Zach Hicks? The grade is lowered to a B- as Collins flashed earlier in the year but has not since.
Grade After the Draft: C+
Grade After Week 5: B
New Grade: B-
17. Las Vegas Raiders – Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
Leatherwood moved to guard after having several poor tackle performances. Leatherwood has been dominated with power and quickness in the passing game. Both are signs that he lacks the balance needed in his pass protection, something the author has echoed before. In the run game, Leatherwood has been good but has allowed several runs to be blown up. His run blocking has progressed, whether from improved awareness or chemistry between him and his teams, and it is somewhat encouraging.
Still playing well as a rookie on the offensive line is difficult, and Leatherwood’s problems can be fixed with the right offseason development and technique. As a guard, Leatherwood gets a C as the pick as a whole is somewhat worrying, but that doesn’t mean he can’t develop.
Grade After the Draft: C+
Grade After Week 5: C+
New Grade: C
18. Miami Dolphins – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami
Phillips was never going to be the flashiest edge rusher, as he was more of a high motor and smooth player who won with efficiency. He’s been winning with similar efficiency in the NFL, but it just doesn’t seem as effective. With four sacks and 22 total pressures all season, there has only been 11 total pressures in the last five games, which needs to be better. Against the run, he has been fine, as he’s shown the ability to set the edge at times. For the author, Phillips’ play is starting to be worrying, as he has shown some flashes of high-level play, but little consistency. The C+ grade is awarded, as Phillips needs to get to the passer more consistently.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade after Week 5: B
New Grade: C+
19. Washington Football Team – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
The idea of drafting Davis in the first round was to use him as a run and chase linebacker. However, Davis has been eviscerated in pass coverage, allowing tight ends like Robert Tonyan to beat him. More so, misdirection on run plays has slowed him down. Both problems in the run and pass game are to do with the reading of the game and play diagnosis. Davis is taking an extra second to find out what is going on, and even though he’s one of the best athletes on the field, he still can’t get there on time. The good thing is second-year players find the game slows down for them, and they tend to have better awareness and reading of plays.
The coaching staff is part of the problem as well. The lack of reps throughout the season has been weird and concerning. Rookie linebackers don’t play consistently well but rather show flashes week to week. The coaching staff should know that, but with that said, Davis’ grade goes to a C+, as he’s struggled against the run and in coverage.
Grade After the Draft: A-
Grade after Week 5: B-
New Grade: C+
20. New York Giants (via Chicago Bears) – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
Injuries have been a massive part of Toney’s rookie season. Even through training camp, there were missed practices, meetings, etc. However, in Week 5, Toney showed up and was simply electric, catching ten of 12 targets for 189 yards. Diving deeper into that game, it’s more impressive as Toney showed great route running, tracking of the ball, and reliable catching skills. Then Week 6, for the first six snaps, he was going to do it again until another injury. Even through those first snaps, he was dominating, showing exceptional tracking and adjusting of the ball.
Since those snaps in Week 6, he hasn’t been as effective. The author somewhat chalks it up to injuries. However, it has seemed that Toney has been injured all year. The flashes are enough to keep him at a B- instead of a C+, but it is worrying that Toney has had a hard time staying on the field.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade After Week 5: B-
New Grade: B-
21. Indianapolis Colts – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Paye is terrifying for the rest of the division. He was the author’s top edge and ranked inside the top ten for good reason. Paye was one of the best athletes in this draft and was still developing his tools. Now that he’s healthy, he’s showing that he is a force. Paye is winning with okay pass-rushing moves, good hand usage, and burst. He still hasn’t even come close to reaching his potential.
He had 17 pressures weeks 9 to 11, which is outrageous as a rookie edge rusher who was hurt the first few games. If Paye maintains this high-level play, he enters into the A range. However, since these were his first flashy games, he earned the B+ grade.
Grade After the Draft: A+
Grade after Week 5: C+
New Grade: B+
22. Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Farley tore his ACL in Week 6. He was considered a boom-bust player due to injury. The grade remains a C+ as it is worrying Farley lost his rookie season.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade after Week 5: C+
New Grade: C+
23. Minnesota Vikings (via New York Jets from Seattle Seahawks) – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Darrisaw has been an okay offensive tackle, which is high praise as a rookie. He’s seen his struggles in pass sets, where NFL defenders are stronger, quicker, and have more refined pass-rushing moves. The year will likely be up and down as Darrisaw needed to improve hand placement and control, which is something that can improve with technique and good coaching. In the run game, Darrisaw has been a force and has given Dalvin Cook more lanes to rush through. It is impressive that Darrisaw has been this good only five starts into his NFL career. As a result, he gets a B. He could easily see an improvement in his grade.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade after Week 5: C+
New Grade: B
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Harris is a great receiver and a dynamic runner. As a pass-catcher, 49 receptions through 11 games is exceptional and shows his tracking of the ball and body control. Both skills give him the chance to gain extra yards after the catch, which is on display week after week. Moreover, the offense for the Steelers has run through Harris and has been somewhat effective the last several games. Despite a horrific offensive line, Harris has remained a catalyst for this offense. The running back position is highly replaceable, but Harris has done a good job making something out of nothing. Harris keeps the B grade as he’s been steady and consistent.
Grade After the Draft: B-
Grade After Week 5: B
New Grade: B
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams) – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson / (Analyzing pick #33, Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia)
Etienne essentially gets an injury grade, as nobody is sure what to expect. With that said, Campbell has been good the last four weeks. The in-season development and ability to locate the ball doesn’t make a lot of sense. Put simply, Campbell has been able to locate the ball and swat it away. He’s always had exceptional man and zone skills, where he was always in a position to make a play. But before these last five weeks, he just hasn’t been able to react quickly enough.
Campbell, if he continues this pace, could have an even higher grade than a B. As it stands, Campbell has been making great plays on the ball and contesting almost every throw his way. Campbell gets the B grade as he’s been fine as a rookie cornerback and has had some significant flashes over the past four weeks.
Grade after Week 5: C+
New Grade: B
26. Cleveland Browns – Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
Newsome has been one of the few cornerbacks to manage Chase this season. He’s consistently gotten better week-to-week, and it shows as many teams aren’t targeting him, largely because the receivers he covers aren’t open. His fluidity in man coverage and pursuit in zone coverage is exceptional and allows him to stick the receiver or contest catches consistently. Newsome has serious potential, but the odd miss in coverage and penalty (two against New England) keeps him at a B grade with room to move up easily to a B+.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade After Week 5: B
New Grade: B
27. Baltimore Ravens – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Bateman is smooth and crafty, but above all, he has been a reliable piece on Baltimore’s offense. His route running has been as advertised, consistently showing that he can generate separation. His ability to box out corners paired with his separation is giving Lamar Jackson a larger avenue to throw the ball. With 21 catches in his first five games, Bateman is only getting better and improving his already great awareness of the game. Bateman gets a B after Week 11 as he’s been good for the offense. The author believes Bateman’s upside is significant, and a B+ or A- could be in the range if he gets more opportunity and makes more high-end plays.
Grade After the Draft: A
Grade After Week 5: C+
New Grade: B
28. New Orleans Saints – Payton Turner, EDGE, Houston
Turner only played Week 9, and was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. One game isn’t enough to change his grade and it remains a B-. It is disappointing fans don’t get to see Turner develop in his rookie year.
Grade After the Draft: C+
Grade after Week 5: B-
New Grade: B-
29. Green Bay Packers – Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
Stokes has been good, and the author contends that two bad games in the last six are good for a rookie. His speed allows him to make mistakes or take risks in both man and zone coverage. Stokes has been targeted 26 times since Week 6 and allowed 14 receptions. In part, five receptions came from the Vikings, who put Stokes in an awkward position.
Stokes has been surprisingly good as a rookie starter. With more experience game to game, Stokes could be a really good #2 cornerback on the Packers to pair with Jaire Alexander. He gets a B with the average level of consistency, along with improving his reaction speed week after week.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade After Week 5: B-
New Grade: B
30. Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Rousseau has received rotational snaps and has been okay. Rousseau was always rawer than others despite a successful long arm move and leverage. He has been able to consistently anchor the edge position in the run game, making him a capable three-down player. It is evident the Bills think Rousseau needs more development and improvement before he can get more reps on the field as he’s had ten pressures since Week 6. Similar to Phillips, the limited pressures are a result of unrefined pass-rushing plans and developing moves. Thus Rousseau gets the B grade as he’s been a fine contributor but hasn’t been special. With his build – freakishly long arms and the length he generates, there is massive upside if he can put it all together.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade After Week 5: B+
New Grade: B
31. Baltimore Ravens (Via Kansas City Chiefs) – Odafe Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
There are flashes of brilliance every game you watch Oweh. Viewers don’t need to pinpoint Oweh before the snap but watch the play unfold and see he makes plays. The movement skills are special, and it is evident that even at 252 pounds, he’s still one of the best athletes on the field. He’s still developing the refinement of his pass-rushing tool, but in Baltimore, edge rushers have historically improved technically.
Once Oweh unlocks more effective hand usage, a refined move, improves his pass-rushing plan, and can use a counter move, he’ll be one of the best edge rushers in the league. He has the upside to be the best pick in the first round. Since Week 6, Oweh has had 16 pressures but played one less game than the other edge rushers, making him deserving of a B+ grade.
Grade After the Draft: B
Grade After Week 5: B+
New Grade: B+
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, EDGE/OLB, Washington
Tryon-Shoyinka has been good, and the flashes he shows game to game are borderline elite. At this point of the season, it is interesting he’s not playing more, with Jason Pierre-Paul playing with a torn rotator cuff. Still, Tryon-Shoyinka has flashed in pass rushing, showing power, refinement in his hand usage, and burst. It’s a deadly combo, and continued development in his tools and pass-rushing plan gives him significant potential. His six-pressure performance against the Giants shows that the sky is truly the limit.
That aside, he has some up-and-down reps against the run. Over the past six games, there has been improvement with his ability to anchor and make the play. The grade moves down to a B, as he’s been a good contributor, having flashes on one play, but then being inconsistent one or two plays after. The missed plays are more rookie mistakes, but Tryon-Shoyinka has the potential to be one of the better pass rushers in the league.
Grade After the Draft: C+
Grade after Week 5: B+
New Grade: B
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