The 0-8 Bengals will welcome the 6-2 Ravens to the confines of Paul Brown Stadium this Sunday. While the Ravens have had a fantastic stretch of wins to propel them to the second seed in the AFC playoff picture, the Bengals will look to knock off the NFL’s newest darling on Sunday.
The Ravens have won each of the last two meetings by one possession: a 23-17 win in Week 6, and a 24-21 win in Lamar Jackson’s first start in Week 11 of 2018. Before those two triumphs, the Ravens had lost nine of their last 12 matchups with the Bengals, a testament to how well the Bengals play Baltimore. The Ravens only have one double-digit win over the Bengals since they won Super Bowl 47, so a purple-themed blowout seems unlikely.
The Bengals have been crunched with the injury bug this season as players across the roster have been barred with injuries. The most notable injuries are a season-ending injury to first-round pick Jonah Williams and an injury to A.J. Green that has forced him to miss every game this season.
There is a stark contrast in the amount of talent on both rosters. The Ravens are not necessarily loaded with stars all over the field, but they have a distinct advantage in terms of talent on offense and defense. While the Bengals are unlucky to be 0-16, they have slipped since their 12-4 season in 2015, at least in terms of personnel.
Will the Ravens blowout the Bengals? Most signs point to humiliation and destruction of the Bengals on Sunday, but the Bengals have shown a knack to beat the Ravens even when the Ravens have the superior team. The Ravens will likely control most of the game on the ground, but the contest should be closer than most expect.
Quarterback Battle:
Lamar Jackson has played at an MVP level in 2019. He is coming off of the best performance by any quarterback against the Patriots, a testament to how much that Jackson has improved in just 16 NFL starts. On the opposing sideline, the Bengals will try to get a similar spark from rookie quarterback Ryan Finley. The Boise State and North Carolina State product was selected in the fourth round of the NFL Draft in 2019. It will be the first time since 2015 that the Bengals will start a quarterback not named Andy Dalton against the Ravens. Historically, the Ravens have dominated rookie quarterbacks, but the first rookie quarterback that they played this season (Kyler Murray) posted a season-high in passing yards with nearly 350. Murray is vastly better than Finley, but the rookie could shock the world on Sunday.
Running the Ball:
Joe Mixon has been a dramatic disappointment, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry on the season. In the first matchup with the Ravens, Mixon posted 10 yards on eight carries, a paltry showing. Mixon will likely be better than 1.25 yards per carry on Sunday, but he will likely not explode for a productive game.
For the Ravens, both Mark Ingram and Lamar Jackson have been wickedly effective on the season. Ingram has posted over five yards per carry, and he has three games with more than 100 yards. Jackson also has a trio of games with 100 yards, including 152 against the Bengals in the first matchup. Jackson currently leads the NFL in yards per carry (6.4), and both Jackson and Ingram are in the top 12 for most rushing yards on the season. As a team, the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards per rush, a recipe for destruction against the Bengals who have allowed the most rushing yards and most yards per carry.
Pass-catchers:
Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, Alex Erickson, and tight end Tyler Eifert will get the most attention with Green out another week. Boyd is on pace for another 1,000-yard season accompanied by 100 catches, and Tate posted 91 yards in the Week 6 clash between the Bengals and Ravens.
Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are the primary weapons for the Ravens’ passing attack although the likes of Nick Boyle, Hayden Hurst, Miles Boykin, and Willie Snead can pop up from time to time. Andrews leads the team in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns, but Brown is the most dangerous weapon on the squad. Despite missing a few games due to injury, Brown is second on the team in most statistics, and he has a higher yards per game mark than Andrews does. Andrews will be relied upon with the other tight ends to provide easy and quick completions for Lamar Jackson while Brown can take the top off the defense with his electric speed and agility.
In the Trenches:
The Ravens have the advantage on both the offensive and defensive sides of the line. Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley have been standout performers on an effective Baltimore offensive line while the Bengals’ line has been porous to pass-rushers (29 sacks allowed) and run-stuffers (3.2 yards per carry). On the defensive front, the Ravens have Michael Pierce and Brandon Williams to clog holes. The Bengal defensive line has more household names in the form of Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, but the Bengals have been soundly defeated at the point of attack weekly. However, Sam Hubbard, a second-year defensive end, should not be taken lightly as he is tied for the team lead in both sacks and tackles for loss.
Secondary:
The Ravens are simply better here. The likes of Earl Thomas and Brandon Carr have rounded into form in recent weeks, and the Week 9 return of Jimmy Smith only helped to bolster the secondary. Marlon Humphrey has been the second-best cornerback in football (Stephon Gilmore is No. 1) for the whole of the season, and Marcus Peters has made himself a home in Baltimore as he has two pass deflections, a pick, and a touchdown in two weeks. Peters also calmed the narrative of him not being an effective tackler as he set a career-high in tackles last week. For the Bengals, they have promising safety Jessie Bates and a lot of average defensive backs. Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson have been good for spells in their careers, but both have slipped off this season. Plus, Kirkpatrick will not play this week due to injury. The Bengals’ secondary will likely not be tested much as the Ravens will lean on the run, but the Bengals must make sure to not be exploited down the field.
Verdict
The Ravens are a fairly safe bet against a vastly inferior roster, but the Bengals have shown they can defeat Baltimore under virtually any circumstances. I will back the Ravens here, but I do not anticipate a blowout due to the traditions of the Bengals spoiling the Ravens’ seasons and due to the likelihood that the Ravens siphon enough of the clock to keep from winning by multiple touchdowns.
Prediction
Winner: Ravens
Spread: Bengals (+11.5)
Score: Ravens 27, Bengals 17
Over/Under: UNDER 44.5
