Welcome to Part II of ranking Top 30 Outfielders of 2023. This will be numbered 20-11.
This list is strictly predicting how these players will perform in 2023. Does that mean last year doesn’t matter? Absolutely not. Last season matters the most. However, this list also factors in how the players have performed since 2020, how much they progressed or regressed, and if 2022 was just an outlier.
Without further ado, here are the 20th-11th best outfielders for 2023.
20. Bryan Reynolds
The biggest talk regarding Reynolds this offseason was not predicting how he will play in 2023; it is where he will play. He demanded a trade from the Pirates back in December. It is not likely he will be traded before opening day, but he probably will be before the trade deadline. Whoever trades for him will surely be lucky. In 2022 he hit 27 Home Runs, batted .262, had a .345 OBP, .806 OPS, and a 125 WRC+. Unfortunately, with his super solid offensive numbers, he was abysmal in the field in 2022. He had -14 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and -7 OAA (Outs Above Average).
Reynolds is going to be playing under a lot of pressure this season. It sure won’t look good if he demands a trade and then ends up underachieving. I would expect a big season from someone who had a lot of reasons to prove people wrong
19. Tyler O’Neill
O’Neill was unreal in 2021. He hit 34 Home Runs, batted .286, and had a .352 OBP, .912 OPS, and 144 WRC+. After this elite season, he took a big step back in 2022. He batted .228, had a .308 OBP, .700 OPS, and 101 WRC+. This was the case in the field as well. He dropped 10 points in DRS and 3 points in OAA. The main reason he took a step back was because of his injuries. Between May and September, he hurt his shoulder, neck, leg, and hamstring (twice). The Cardinals will be one of the more interesting teams in the league this year. If O’Neill stays healthy, they will be a black horse to win the National League.
18. Christian Yelich
Yelich, at his best, was one of the best players in the league. From 2018-2019, he batted .327, had a .415 OBP, 1.046 OPS, and a 170 WRC+. However, he has taken a giant step back since (partly due to injuries). Since 2020, he has only had a 108 WRC+. Even though he will probably never get to who he was pre-covid, I am expecting his biggest year since then. The Brewers have the chance to make noise this year in the NL Central. If they do, Yelich will be a main reason for this.
17. Luis Robert Jr.
Robert has had a really solid start to his career. In his three years, he is batting .289 and has a .334 OBP, .808 OPS, and 122 WRC+. He has also been a net positive in the field. However, his biggest problem is his ability to stay on the field. In 2021 Robert only played 68 games, and only 98 games in 2022. These injuries have been in his hand, wrist, groin, and hip. While there is no guarantee he will ever be a guy who can stay healthy, if he is, he has top-10 potential.
16. Cedric Mullins II
Mullins is one of the most underrated players in the league. He had an unreal 2021 season where he batted .291, had a .360 OBP, .870 OPS, and 136 WRC+. However, he, unfortunately, took a big step back in 2022, where he had a 108 WRC+. Nevertheless, he was still pretty solid in the field, with 5 DRS and 8 OAA. Though I would not expect him to be the same player in 2021, I still anticipate an improvement from last season.
15. Starling Marte
Marte had a fantastic first year with the Mets. He batted .292, batted .347, .815 OPS, and 136 WRC+. He was pretty split in the field, where he had 4 DRS and -2 OAA. He was unreal at the beginning of the year but did not play most of September due to his hand injury. Many would argue (including myself) that the Mets would have won the NL East had he stayed healthy. He will be playing in his age-34 season this year, so a lot of the projections have him playing slightly worse this year. While this may occur, I do not expect him to take a huge step back as long as he stays healthy.
14. Michael Harris II
The 2022 NL Rookie of the Year comes in at 15. He had a fantastic year. He batted .297, had a .339 OBP, .853 OPS, and 136 WRC+. He was just as good in the field, where he had 8 DRS and 7 OAA. This was all in 114 games. Most Braves fans expect him to take a big leap this year, but a lot of the analytics are projecting him to have a slight sophomore slump. This is because of his bad Walk to Strikeout ratio (he strikes out six times as much as he walks), and they are concerned this might catch up to him if pitchers start to figure him out more. With this being said, he still has a lot of time to figure things out, and the Braves are a good team to develop under.
13. Brandon Nimmo
Nimmo signed an 8-year $160 Million deal with his hometown team and earned every penny. Though he is a very injury-prone player, he played the most games of his career last year and is undoubtedly one of the better players in the league on the field. Last year he batted .274, had a .367 OBP, .800 OPS, and 134 WRC+. He also had the best defensive season of his career, where he had 8 OAA. Nimmo is a Met for life, and they sure are lucky to have him.
12. Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker is easily one of the best hitters in the game. Though he was not as good as he was in 2021, he was still elite. He hit 30 Home Runs, batted .257, had a .330 OBP, .808 OPS, and 129 WRC+. Tucker was also elite in the field, with 14 DRS and 3 OAA. This was good enough to win him a Gold Glove. Though Tucker is not necessarily elite in the playoffs, his sample size is large enough to say that there are very few players in the league that you would rather have than Kyle Tucker in a big spot.
11. Byron Buxton
When healthy, he is easily a top-10 Outfielder. In 92 games last year, he hit 28 Home Runs, had a .832 OPS, and 136 WRC+. He was even better in 2021 when he had a 171 WRC+. With this being said, the biggest problem is the first two words of this paragraph. He has not been able to stay healthy for years. From 2018-22, he played 28, 87, 39, 61, and 92 games. It is tough to predict injuries, so this list is based on if everyone stays healthy, but don’t be surprised if he ends the year lower on this list due to injuries.
Conclusion
Many of these guys are fantastic players who just had down 2022 seasons because of injuries. However, they are hungry for more success come 2023, and I fully expect most of them to have a bounce-back year.
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