With the NFL season (and fantasy season) finally getting going, this Sunday starts the tradition for many of staring at a television for nine hours with a bag of chips and a cold beer rooting for both their actual team and their players on their fantasy team.
Here is how the New England Patriots skill position players should be ranked on your draft boards.
Tom Brady: QB2
This pains me to say this. Tom Brady is the best to ever do it, and I am of the belief he will have just as much success as previous years. He has shown no signs of slowing down and three Super Bowl rings in five years proves that. However, in fantasy lineups, you’re better off looking elsewhere. For anyone that watched the newly released “Do Your Job III”, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels basically said that New England’s best way to win with the personnel they have is to run it down opponents throats.
This isn’t necessarily a knock on Brady, but rather on the receiving corps. They simply don’t have enough options to sustain a heavy passing attack. If their passing game last year was weak, then this year it’s certain they won’t be sticking to an air raid offense. The losses of Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan were significant, as the Patriots really found no one to replace them. Matt Lacosse looks like he will be the starting tight end, and undrafted rookie Jakobi Meyers will battle post-Achilles tear Demaryius Thomas for the lion’s share of Hogan’s targets.
Brady as an NFL quarterback is still top tier. But, a big part of fantasy production is volume, something Brady will lack in this offense. Find another play here.
Sony Michel: RB2
Michel has always been a pick I was wary of. He has loads of potential, but it comes with risk. For starters, New England’s backfield is loaded. Five running backs on the roster, four who will most likely get snaps on any given Sunday makes it hard for any back to succeed. Michel will get the majority of the carries, but that may not mean much.
The Patriots offense revolves around matchup over skill. While Rex Burkhead may be the third option on the depth chart, if the team sees a matchup they like, he may end up getting 15 carries while Michel looks on from the sidelines. Is this likely? No, but it is more than possible.
There are better options you can consider before Michel. Options that don’t have three other running backs breathing down his throat for touches. I have Michel as my RB17, but with a ton of upside. There are weeks where Michel will rush for 100-plus yards with two touchdowns. It’s the weeks that he only touches the ball 10 times that I’m concerned about.
James White: RB2
Michel and White are pretty much in the same category. I have White as my RB 19, only two spots behind Michel. While it’s Michel who has more upside, White may be the safer pick. The difference is he is a matchup nightmare. No matter what gameplan New England has, dumping it off to White out of the backfield with a linebacker on him is virtually unstoppable. The Patriots will use that on a week-to-week basis in order to keep White relevant.
There will be weeks where his usual five-catch, 40-yard stat line doesn’t cut it for an RB2, but it’s the risk you take with White. He becomes an even more interesting handcuff with Michel’s injury history. We saw White become a must-start while Michel was injured, and if another nagging injury keeps Michel out a few games look for White so explode. He is a very solid weekly flex play, just be prepared for some down weeks. He also doubles as a handcuff for Michel, a valuable commodity. Upgrade him in PPR leagues.
Julian Edelman: WR1
As far as on field production goes, Edelman is a top receiver and a must-have in PPR leagues. With Rob Gronkowski gone, N’Keal Harry beginning the season on IR, and the constant worry of Josh Gordon getting suspended, Edelman is the only real option for Tom Brady. When he is on the field, he could get double-digit targets on any given Sunday. With not many red zone threats in this offense as well, Edelman’s touchdowns could spike.
The key in all of this is Edelman being on the field. Because he is so important to this offense, especially come playoff time I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots take a minor injury and stay cautious by holding Edelman out a couple of games. Bottom line is they need him healthy for the NFL Playoffs, not your fantasy football playoffs. Fantasy owners should take the risk knowing that the production will be there but also staying aware that he could miss some important weeks down the stretch.
Josh Gordon: WR3
Gordon is an intriguing name. The thing about intriguing names is that they tend to be drafted earlier than they should be. This may be the case for Gordon. He’s a WR3, with definite upside, but with big risks.
The first risk is that fans simply do not know what Gordon we are getting. With the Patriots last year he was a solid receiver and intriguing fantasy option before getting suspended again. Even a return of Gordon from last year justifies a flex play.
The second risk is the fact he could be suspended at any time. With Gordon on your team, it must come with the understanding that one week he could be your highest scoring player and the next he could be gone. He is a decent flex play, but you should make sure you have a backup option.
Tight End: Stash Rob Gronkowksi
There is no Patriot tight end worth having your roster. Despite heavily using a tight end in their offense since the dynasty began, right now there is simply no one that is good enough to play a decent sized role. Maybe when Bet Watson comes back there may be a play, but even then it is unlikely given his age.
If you have a league with a very deep bench, my advice is stash Gronkowski. Just based off of logic and history of the Patriots, they won’t leave this position as weak as it is. Whether it comes from a deadline deal, or Gronkowski comes back, it may be worth the shot. It’s unlikely, but if you have a deep bench, it may be worth a flier.
