The 11-2 Ravens return home to face the 5-8 Jets.
All-time, the Ravens are 8-2 against the Jets, including an undefeated stretch between 1998 and 2013. The teams last played in 2016 when the Quincy Enunwa-fueled Jets defeated the Baltimore Justin Tuckers. While there are a handful of defensive players and linemen who remain from the clash, only three skill position players will have played in both the 2016 and 2019 games: Chris Moore, Robby Anderson, and Bilal Powell.
The teams are dramatically different from their 2016 counterparts, but the most jarring contrast is the difference between the 2016 Ravens rushing attack and the 2019 Ravens rushing attack. Against the Jets in 2016, the Ravens ran the ball just 11 times for 11 yards. In 2019, they run the ball a ridiculous 37 times a game.
Quarterback Battle:
Sam Darnold has been wildly inconsistent for the Jets this season. While he is 5-5 as a starter, Darnold has had significant highs and significant lows. He had great games against the Cowboys and Raiders in which he threw for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns and posted very high pass ratings. In the same vein, Darnold has had a couple of stinkers including back-to-back games in which he tossed seven interceptions and 304 total yards against the Patriots and Jaguars. Darnold has improved across-the-board in terms of completion percentage, touchdown percentage, interception percentage and yards per throw metrics. Darnold has been effective over the last few games tossing only two interceptions in his last five games.
Lamar Jackson has been simply sensational in his sophomore campaign. The MVP front runner has an NFL-leading 28 passing touchdowns to go along with his seven rushing touchdowns and a 1,000-yard rushing campaign. Jackson is the second quarterback to ever eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in a season following the 2006 efforts of Michael Vick. Jackson has three or more touchdowns in six separate games, including four of the last five. Jackson also leads the NFL in QBR and touchdown percentage, evidence of his massive growth as a passer in Year 2. The starkest extension of Jackson’s game is his ability to complete passes at a high clip. After completing only 58 percent of his passes as a rookie, Jackson has surpassed 58 percent in 11 of 13 starts including 10 of 11 victories. Jackson has eclipsed 60 percent completion in every game since the bye.
Running the Ball:
Despite having a former All-Pro running back in Le’Veon Bell, the Jets have been one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL this season. The Jets are second to last in terms of rushing yards and second to last in terms of yards per carry. Bell has only averaged 3. 2 yards per carry. Despite toting the rock 15 times per game over 12 games, Bell is still shy of 600 yards on the season. Outside of Bell, the Jets employ Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery occasionally as a respite for Bell. Among runners with more than 150 carries, Le’Veon Bell is the most inefficient runner of them all. The Jets are one of only two teams to not have more than 1,000 rushing yards on the season, but they will likely hit 1,000 yards against the Ravens on Thursday night.
On the contrary, the Ravens have three of the most efficient rushers in the NFL with Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Mark Ingram all placing in the top 10 in terms of yards per carry. Jackson, in particular, has been dynamic, rushing for 6.7 yards per carry. Jackson has only needed 151 rushes to eclipse 1,000 yards. Jackson and Ingram are in the top 12 in terms of rushing yards as Ingram will likely hit the 1,000-yard plateau in the next couple of weeks. The 2019 Ravens are one of the most optimized rushing offenses in the history of the sport as they are top five in terms of yards per carry in the history of the NFL while being one of the most run-heavy teams since the merger. The Ravens average 201 rushing yards per game.
Pass catchers:
The Jets heavily involve three wide receivers and one running back to facilitate the passing attack. Jamison Crowder leads the team in targets and receptions while Robby Anderson leads the team in receiving yards, and tight end Ryan Griffin leads the team with five receiving touchdowns. Accompanying those three players, Le’Veon Bell and Demaryius Thomas are utilized four or five times per game and both have solid numbers. In particular, Anderson has been explosive for the Jets. Anderson has a trio of games with more than 100 yards, including each of the last two weeks. Anderson had a high mark of 125 yards against the Cowboys in Week 6. On the contrary, Jamison Crowder has been more of a vacuum for targets. Crowder has four separate games with at least nine targets including a mammoth 17 in Week 1. While he has been unlucky in trying to break the 100-yard barrier, Crowder has four separate games with at least 80 yards.
In a different style to the Jets’ version of spreading the ball around to just a handful of targets, the Ravens spread the ball around even more. The focal points of the Ravens’ passing attack are Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, but the Ravens have six additional players who have registered at least 18 targets on the season. While Andrews has primarily operated as an intermediate threat, he may not be available for Thursday night. Marquise Brown, who has dealt with injuries for most of the season, will almost certainly play on Thursday, and he should be a valuable deep threat. Beyond Andrews and Brown, the legs of Willie Snead, Nick Boyle, Hayden Hurst, and Mark Ingram supplement the passing attack. Hurst flashed great speed last week against the Bills as he broke off a long touchdown reception.
In the Trenches:
On the offensive line, the Jets have been inconsistent at best. While ravaged with injuries, the line has played fairly poorly. The Jets have one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL, and the passing offense relies heavily on Sam Darnold doing something before the defensive line murders him. Defensively speaking, the Jets have a strong line. The Jets have the NFL’s best rushing defense and could stop Baltimore. In terms of a yards per carry basis, the Jets have one of the best numbers in recent memory as they only allow 3.0 yards per rush. The Jets could be without the services of first-round pick Quinnen Williams, but if he plays, the Jets should have a strong rush defense yet again.
The Ravens’ offensive line has been one of the best in football on the season. However, due to the short week, the Ravens will likely be without Ronnie Stanley, their All-Pro-level left tackle. Without Stanley, the Ravens should still have a strong offensive line, but it is unlikely that it will be as good as it would be if Stanley were there. Defensively, the Ravens have a stout unit. Led by the likes of Michael Pierce, Brandon Williams, and edge rusher Matt Judon, the Ravens can apply pressure to the quarterback and disrupt the running game.
Secondary:
Without Jamal Adams, the Jets have a fairly pedestrian secondary. Even with the services of the NFL’s best safety, the Jets aren’t particularly adept at stopping teams through the air. While Adams may be the best all-around player in the NFL, his absence leaves a gaping hole in the defensive backfield.
In contrast, the Ravens have one of the best secondaries in the NFL with the likes of Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Earl Thomas. The Raven secondary is relied upon to consistently get stops as the heavy blitz scheming of the Ravens can often bring pressure, but it has not resulted in many sacks.
Verdict:
Most metrics heavily favor the Ravens. However, I think the short week accompanied by an emotional win against the Bills will keep the Ravens from decimating the Jets. With Sam Darnold, the Jets are 5-5 and have been reasonably competitive against teams such as the Bills and the Cowboys. While the Ravens are better than the Bills and the Cowboys, I think the Jets will keep it closer than many expect, and the game could come down to a last-minute field goal or a late touchdown drive.
Predictions:
Winner: Ravens
Spread: Jets (+14.5)
Score: Ravens 23, Jets 20
Over/Under: UNDER 45.5
