Like clockwork, every year for the last decade, the Patriots have advanced to the AFC Championship. With that, every year, one of two things happens: the Patriots easily blow by their divisional round opponent before a close game in the AFC Championship or vice versa. In the last 10 years, the Patriots have been played two down-to-the-wire games in the playoffs, despite making it to the AFC Championship every year. This year, however, could change that streak.
To put this in perspective, here is a list of New England’s playoff games with the margin of victory per season:
- 2011: 45-10 vs. Broncos (Tim Tebow-led)
- 2012: 41-28 vs. Texans (Matt Schaub-led)
- 2013: 43-22 vs. Colts
- 2014: 45-7 vs. Colts (Andrew Luck really hated playing in New England)
- 2015: 27-20 vs. Chiefs (Andy Reid forgot how to manage a clock)
- 2016: 36-17 vs. Steelers (Also blew out the Texans in divisional round)
- 2017: 35-14 vs. Titans
- 2018: 41-28 vs. Chargers (Score is closer than the game actually was)
Every year since 2011, the Patriots have won a playoff game by a touchdown or more. In those games, the quarterbacks faced have been Tim Tebow, Alex Smith, Marcus Mariota, and others. These games have been referred to as the infamous “three-week bye” as the Patriots’ trend of missing the wild card game and easily beating a team in the divisional round before actually playing a meaningful AFC Championship has happened almost every year.
However, for this year, here is who New England may be matched up against in the 2019-20 playoffs.
Likely AFC Divisional Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were a popular pre-season favorite to upset the Patriots in the playoffs. If this game was in Kansas City, it wouldn’t even be considered in “upset” if the Chiefs pulled out a win. In 2019, the Chiefs came into Foxborough and stole a win a little under a year after they took New England to overtime in the AFC Championship game.
The Chiefs have weapons on weapons on offense. It starts with last year’s MVP, Patrick Mahomes. One season removed from 50 touchdown passes, the quarterback out of Texas Tech has continued his dominance despite missing multiple games with a knee injury. After an early interception, he moved the ball well against the New England defense in their most recent matchup. For his career, Mahomes has averaged over 31 points in three matchups against the Patriots, with two of those games coming in Foxborough.
As for his weapons, it doesn’t get much easier for the Patriots. Outside burner Tyreek Hill now has an apprentice in rookie Pro Bowler Mecole Hardman, not to mention Sammy Watkins, who went for 114 yards receiving in the AFC Divisional Game. Besides their three receivers, the Patriots will also need to limit one of the top tight ends in the league in Travis Kelce.
With an explosive offense and an improving defense, it wouldn’t be shocking if Kansas City came to New England and pulls out a win, eliminating the Patriots before the AFC Championship for the first time since 2010.
Likely AFC Championship Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
For this one, I’m putting all personal bias and analysis aside. I personally believe the Patriots may not even have to face the Ravens, and if they do, Bill Belichick will have a game plan for Jackson. However, if I’m wrong, here is why this will be a tough matchup.
Firstly, the Ravens are the No. 1 seed and haven’t lost in three months. MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson has been tearing up defenses on his way to a 13-2 record as a starter this season. One defense who he has already torn up is the Patriots, gashing them for 30 points when he and Mark Ingram combined for almost 200 yards rushing.
The defense has looked legit with the two-headed monster at cornerback with Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, and Earl Thomas over the top at safety. The pass rush has been effective and the Ravens have looked like an all-around championship team. The chemistry is there, along with the talent and coaching. Regardless of who is on the field for the Ravens, head coach John Harbaugh has always held the Patriots to a close game in the playoffs, and this year seems to be no different.
Likely Super Bowl Opponent: New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers
Pick your poison with this one. If the Patriots get through the first two teams in the gauntlet, it only gets harder from there. There really isn’t a clear-cut favorite in the NFC, but none of these teams really feel like an easy matchup. The Saints’ offense, the 49ers’ defense, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. Any one of those will be a difficult matchup.
This season may truly be the first time New England will have to go through a road of three close, hard-fought games to be Super Bowl champions. It will for sure be their hardest road with a bye and possibly even their hardest road since 2001. If the Patriots will want to win this game, they will have to be at their best for three consecutive games.
