Our picks hit a snag last time with Montreal failing to get the job done against the lowly Ottawa Senators. In the other contest, we squeezed out our first push with the Rangers and Capitals combining for six goals. On to a new night. Will the trend of favorites continue to be the winning side (near 70 percent)? Or will we see the underdogs close the gap? Lots of hockey left and lots of picks to make, let’s get started.
Season record: 9-6-1
Betting Odds Sponsored by Jazz Sportsbook
Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers
A big part of the analysis this season will be based on how teams play the second or third time against each other after the initial meeting. On Sunday the Wings registered a rare win 4-1 versus the Panthers. Here is a classic bounce-back spot for Florida to be ready and come out aggressive. Despite the loss in Game 1, they held a 25-18 advantage in scoring chances, their highest total of the season. Look for them to capitalize on more of their chances tonight against the league’s eighth-worst defense (3.38 GA/GM).
Detroit is far from being a good offense, averaging just two goals a game. A repeat performance is highly unlikely. A more realistic expectation is one or two goals in game two, not three or four. The combination of Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov has been running roughshod against the league yet again this season. Huberdeau has notched eight points in his last five contest while Barkov has posted three goals in his last five. Another key factor will be the Panther’s power play and the Wings anemic penalty kill. The Cats have the fifth-best conversion rate of 34.6 percent while Detroit has killed off just 71.8 percent (27th).
Pick: Florida -1.5 (+100)
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
The first stanza between these two Sunday was a game littered with scoring chances. Underlying numbers suggest much more of the same could be on tap Tuesday. The Flyers and Capitals combined for 11 goals in the 7-4 Philly victory. Philadelphia is tied for the division lead in points heading into Monday but the way they got there suggests they are perhaps a bit lucky, and that they are relying on goal scoring to secure victories. The 269 scoring chances given up rank fourth-worst league-wide. Their 31st ranked CORSI rating is even worse at just 44.55 percent. No wonder goaltender Carter Hart is struggling (3.49 GAA, .897 save percentage).
Both teams are built to push the play in the offensive zone, going over the total is where my focus will be. Philadelphia is giving up way too many scoring opportunities while both teams are amongst the league’s best offenses. The Flyers are averaging 3.54 GF/GP (eighth) while the Capitals average 3.58 (fourth). Over their past five games, Washington has really struggled to keep the puck out of their net averaging 4.40 against. They will be welcoming back goaltender Ilya Samsonov back to the fray as soon as tomorrow. The Flyers recently got number one center Sean Couturier back, he registered three points in his return.
Pick: Over 6 (-130)
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