Every week billions of dollars are wagered on the NFL. The most popular type of bet is the spread. Each week there are a few games with an appealing spread and others with an ugly spread. To help bettors figure out which spreads they should bet on and which to avoid, two of our NFL writers, Mike Fanelli and Dale Money, give their take on every spread for each of this weekend’s games.
To recap, last week, Mike finished with a 6-7 record while Dale finished 7-6. For the year, Mike is 43-44-1 while Dale is 50-37-1. Let’s take a look at their picks for Week 7.
Spreads are provided by Jazz Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Be sure to check out our NFL betting advice article each week.
|
Game |
Mike |
Dale |
|
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens -6.5 |
CIN +6.5 |
BAL -6.5 |
|
Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants +3 |
CAR -3 |
NYG +3 |
|
Washington Football Team vs Green Bay Packers -7.5 |
GB -7.5 |
WAS +7.5 |
|
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans +4.5 |
KC -4.5 |
KC -4.5 |
|
Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins +2.5 |
ATL -2.5 |
ATL -2.5 |
|
New York Jets vs New England Patriots -7 |
NYJ +7 |
NE -7 |
|
Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Rams -16 |
LA -16 |
LAR -16 |
|
Philadelphia Eagles vs Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 |
LV -2.5 |
PHI +2.5 |
|
Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11.5 |
TB -11.5 |
TB -11.5 |
|
Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals -18 |
ARZ -18 |
HOU +18 |
|
Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers -4 |
IND +4 |
SF -4 |
|
New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks +4.5 |
SEA +4.5 |
NO -4.5 |
The Team to Bet
Mike: Arizona Cardinals -18
Usually, when teams get 17 or more points, bettors take the underdog and the points. However, they shouldn’t. Teams that were 17 or more point favorites over the past 10 years covered the spread in 10 of 16 games. Furthermore, teams that were 18 or more point favorites over the past 10 years covered the spread in five of seven games, including four of the past five. Earlier this season, the Houston Texans were 18 point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. They ended up losing that game 40-0. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are the only undefeated team in the NFL and have a 5-1 record against the spread this season. Bettors should expect the Cardinals to put the Texans away early, giving them time to rest Kyler Murray in the fourth quarter.
Dale: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
On the surface, it appears the Las Vegas Raiders have a distinct advantage heading into this game based solely on their win-loss record. Despite this, both clubs rank almost equally in every major statistical category. Compared to the Eagles and their 137 points, the Raiders have scored 147 points. In addition, the Raiders have allowed just under 1.5 points fewer per game this season than the Eagles. There is a good chance this game will be an even scoring grind out regardless of whether either team jumps out to a sizable lead early. Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders should also see plenty of action against a 25th ranked rush defense besides Jalen Hurts showing off his athletic ability. Take the Eagles plus the 2.5 points in the upset victory.
The Team to Avoid
Mike: New York Giants +3
Even with their lucky victory in Week 4, the Giants are still 2-4 against the spread this season. Despite getting seven or more points in each of their past two games, the Giants failed to cover in both games, losing on average by 25.5 points. Furthermore, in the three games where the spread was under 4.5 points, the Giants are 1-2 against the spread and 0-2 at home this season. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are 2-1 against the spread when they are the favored team this season, winning by an average of almost six points per game. With Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and possibly several other players out for this game, the Giants won’t score enough points to cover the spread. Take the Panthers minus the points.
Dale: New York Jets +7
After torching Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 2 by a score of 25-6, the New England Patriots look like a no-brainer at home. The Patriots offense and Mac Jones have been impressive over the last three weeks, especially how they almost bear Tom Brady at his homecoming game. Last week, the Patriots had a nail-biting loss in overtime to a talented Dallas Cowboys squad. Amazingly despite the Bills’ dominance, a potential win this weekend could vault them to within one game of the Bills. Wilson should be more competitive and boost this team’s competitiveness this time around. However, he won’t be able to do enough to keep this team within a touchdown. The Patriots should easily cover the spread.
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