NFL Week 16 Betting Advice: Spreads to Bet, Avoid

Every week billions of dollars are wagered on the NFL. The most popular type of bet is the spread. Each week there are a few games with an appealing spread and others with an ugly spread. To help bettors figure out which spreads they should bet on and which to avoid, two of our NFL writers, Mike Fanelli and Dale Money, give their take on every spread for each of this weekend’s games.

To recap, last week, Mike finished with a 9-6 record while Dale finished 11-4. For the year, Mike is 93-112-2 while Dale is 111-94-2. Let’s take a look at their picks for Week 16.

Spreads are provided by Jazz Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Be sure to check out our NFL betting advice article each week.

The Team to Bet

Mike: New Orleans Saints +1.5

Last week the Saints were 11.5 point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Florida. However, the Saints came away with the 9-0 victory over the reigning Super Bowl champions. While they won’t have Taysom Hill this week, the Saints shouldn’t be underdogs despite their 2-4 record at home this season. However, they have beaten the weaker teams in New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are on a six-game winning streak. They are 5-1 against the spread during the winning streak, including 3-1 as the favored team. However, they have beaten weaker opponents during that streak, with the only quality win coming over the Baltimore Ravens. Not only will the Saints cover in this game, but Ian Book will lead them to the outright victory.

Dale: Atlanta Falcons -5

Despite their 6-8 record with Matt Ryan, the Falcons remain an intriguing pick given how well they have played against bottom feeders like the Detroit Lions. Four of the Falcons’ wins this season have come over teams with a record 5-9 or worse. Furthermore, due to Covid-19 protocol, there is a very high likelihood that the Lions may be without Jared Goff. Detroit’s win last week against the Arizona Cardinals was admirable but won’t carry over for a second straight game. The Falcons will instead win convincingly over the Lions at home.

The Team to Avoid

Mike: Carolina Panthers +10.5

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The Panthers have been awful lately, losing nine of their past 11 games. Furthermore, they went 2-9 against the spread over those 11 games. Last week they were 14.5 point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. However, they failed to cover the spread, losing 31-14. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers were embarrassed by the Saints last week. While they will be without several critical starters on offense, including Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette, expect the Buccaneers to come on firing. Tom Brady knows the only way the Buccaneers have any chance of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs is to win out. After getting embarrassed on national television last week, expect Brady and the Buccaneers to destroy the Panthers this week, winning by at least 14 points.

Dale: New England Patriots -2

This matchup between AFC East teams might be the most important game this weekend. With a win, the Patriots could clinch the division title. For the Buffalo Bills, they must win this game if they want a chance at winning the AFC East division. After losing in Buffalo a few weeks again, expect a revenge game performance from Josh Allen. We should also see more than three pass attempts from Mac Jones in this game. Look for Tyler Bass to make up for his botched field goal against the Patriots two weeks ago with a game-winning conversion in the dying minutes, covering the spread.

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