Every week billions of dollars are wagered on the NFL. The most popular type of bet is the spread. Each week there are a few games with an appealing spread and others with an ugly spread. To help bettors figure out which spreads they should bet on and which to avoid, two of our NFL writers, Mike Fanelli and Dale Money, give their take on every spread for each of this weekend’s games.
To recap, last week, Mike finished with a 3-10 record while Dale finished 4-9. For the year, Mike is 63-75-2 while Dale is 70-68-2. Let’s take a look at their picks for Week 11.
Spreads are provided by Jazz Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Be sure to check out our NFL betting advice article each week.
|
Game |
Mike |
Dale |
|
Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns -12 |
CLE -12 |
CLE -12 |
|
San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 |
JAX +6.5 |
SF -6.5 |
|
Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills -7 |
BUF -7 |
BUF -7 |
|
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets +3.5 |
MIA -3.5 |
MIA -3.5 |
|
Washington Football Team vs Carolina Panthers -3 |
CAR -3 |
CAR -3 |
|
Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears +6 |
CHI +6 |
CHI +6 |
|
New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 |
PHI -2.5 |
NO +2.5 |
|
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans -10 |
TEN -10 |
HOU +10 |
|
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings +1 |
GB -1 |
MIN +1 |
|
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders +1 |
LV +1 |
CIN -1 |
|
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks +1.5 |
SEA +1.5 |
SEA +1.5 |
|
Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 |
KC -2.5 |
KC -2.5 |
|
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 |
LAC -5.5 |
LAC -5.5 |
|
New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5 |
NYG +10.5 |
NYG +10.5 |
The Team to Bet
Mike: Green Bay Packers -1
This spread for this game doesn’t make any sense. Bettors should back the Packers minus the points until the spread gets higher than three points. The Packers have been the favored team in 70 percent of their games this season. They have covered the spread in six of those seven games. On average, the Packers have been 5.8 point favorites this season. In the six games they covered the spread, they won on average by 12 points per game. Since Week 1, the Packers have covered the spread in every contest, winning on average by 7.9 points per game. Even without Aaron Jones in the lineup, the Packers have one of the best offenses in the NFL, thanks to Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.
Dale: Cleveland Browns -12
In the wake of a humiliating loss to the New England Patriots, the Browns are primed for a bounce-back game against the winless Detroit Lions. Baker Mayfield will start after showing up after coming off the injury. It is unclear who will start at quarterback for the Lions after Jared Goff missed practice with an oblique injury. Reports are the Lions are preparing for Tim Boyle to start. Regardless of who ends up at quarterback, they will have a hard time avoiding that Browns pass rush that has caused havoc on opposing teams. The Lions will leave Cleveland on Sunday still searching for their first win of the season, as the Browns should easily cover the double-digit spread.
The Team to Avoid
Mike: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
What on earth has happened to the Buccaneers lately? Since their dominating 38-3 win in Week 7, the Buccaneers haven’t won a game. Despite four-point favorites against the New Orleans Saints, the Buccaneers lost 36-27 at home. Then after the bye week, the Buccaneers were 10 point favorites over the Washington Football Team on the road. Tom Brady struggled, and the Buccaneers lost 29-19. While the Buccaneers should win against the New York Giants, does anyone think they will cover the double-digit spread? As the favored team this season, the Buccaneers are only 3-5 against the spread, winning on average by 9.6 points per game. Even without Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers will win the game. However, the Giants will cover the spread.
Dale: Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5
After seeing Mason Rudolph’s shoddy performance last week against the Lions, it’s hard to put your faith in him against a quarterback as good as Justin Herbert. Additionally, Herbert will face a depleted Steelers defense that won’t have several starters, including T.J. Watt and Joe Haden. The Steelers could also be without Ben Roethlisberger and Minkah Fitzpatrick for this game because of Covid-19. While Roethlisberger playing would make the game more competitive, the Steelers have no chance at beating the Chargers. The Steelers will lose by at least a touchdown on Sunday night.
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