Over the past four years, the New Orleans Saints have produced two of the biggest fantasy football stars in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Their success was in part thanks to Drew Brees throwing them the ball. In the offseason, Brees announced his retirement, leaving the Saints with an open competition at quarterback. With the change at quarterback, let’s look at what fantasy players can expect from the Saints this season.
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Make sure to check out all of our other 2021 Fantasy Football Previews.
Quarterbacks – Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston
Hill has four career starts at quarterback in his career, all coming last season. In those games, Hill was a productive fantasy asset, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, removing the ugly matchup against the Denver Broncos, Hill averaged 22.3 fantasy points and 252 passing yards per game. The biggest draw to Hill is his rushing ability. In his four starts, Hill averaged 9.8 rushing attempts for 52.3 rushing yards, one touchdown, and 11.2 fantasy points per game on the ground. On a point per game basis, Hill’s 22.3 fantasy points would have finished as the QB9. He would have finished ahead of Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Tom Brady. Thanks to his rushing ability, if Hill is named the starter, he could finish as a top-12 quarterback this year.
The last time we saw Winston as the starter, he threw 30 interceptions. Last season, Winston played the second half of the game against the San Francisco 49ers after Brees got hurt. Winston threw only 10 times for 63 yards and 2.3 fantasy points in that half. In 2019 with Tampa Bay, Winston was a fantasy roller coaster, throwing 33 touchdowns against 30 interceptions. However, Winston finished the year as the QB5. He also led the league in pass attempts, passing yards and finished second in passing touchdowns. However, Winston won’t have the same level of wide receivers or style of offense in New Orleans. If Winston earns the starting job, he could be on a short leash and end up benched, making him undraftable in one quarterback leagues.
Running Backs – Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray
After a down year in 2019, Kamara had a career season in 2020, posting career-highs in rushing yards (932), rushing touchdowns (16), catches (83), targets (107), and fantasy points per game (25.2). While Kamara finished the year as the RB1, his numbers were inflated by his historic performance in Week 16. However, even replacing that game with his rest of season average, Kamara would still have finished as the RB1. In the four games with Hill as the starter, Kamara averaged only four targets and 14.2 fantasy points per game.
However, in the final two games with Hill as the starter, Kamara averaged 6.5 targets and 20.1 fantasy points per game. With Thomas out to begin the year, Kamara could end up leading the team in targets and rush for over 1,000 yards on the ground for the first time in his career. In PPR leagues, Kamara has the upside to finish as the RB1 again this season. He should be a top-four pick regardless of your league’s scoring system.
Behind Kamara are Murray and Devonta Freeman. Assuming Freeman makes the final roster, he should have a limited role. Last season, Freeman averaged only 7.2 fantasy points per game and 3.2 yards per carry in five games. Instead of wasting a pick on Freeman, fantasy players in deeper leagues would be wise to take a shot on Tony Jones Jr. However, in standard size leagues, Kamara and Murray are the only Saints running backs fantasy players should draft. During his two years in New Orleans, Murray has averaged 146 rushing attempts per season and 9.5 fantasy points per game. Not only is Murray one of the top handcuffs in the league, but he also offers flex appeal as he finished last season as the RB3.
Wide Receivers – Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway
Last season was the first time since 2016 where Thomas didn’t finish as a top-six wide receiver. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his 2020 season before it could get started. Like many wide receivers, Thomas’ fantasy value comes in his target share and catch rate. From 2017-2019, Thomas averaged 126 catches and had a 78.4 percent catch rate. With Brees now working for NBC, the Saints will have a massive downgrade at quarterback. However, regardless of who wins the starting quarterback role, don’t expect it to impact Thomas.
In the four games without Brees last season, Thomas had an 80.9 percent catch rate while averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game despite not scoring a touchdown. Unfortunately, fantasy players will be without Thomas for potentially the first six games of the season due to offseason ankle surgery. However, if your league has injured reserve spots, Thomas is worth his current ADP at the end of the fifth round. Furthermore, his ADP could continue to slide as we get closer to the start of the season. Finding replacement receivers during those six weeks will be difficult. However, fantasy players should expect Thomas to return to his top-12 wide receiver level of play once he is 100 percent healthy.
Other than Thomas, no Saints wide receiver is a must draft in standard size leagues. With Emmanuel Sanders and his 82 targets from last season in Buffalo, Smith and Callaway will have to pick up the slack while Thomas is out. Last season, Smith finished second on the team among wide receivers in receiving yards (448), touchdowns (four), and total fantasy points (103.1). Meanwhile, Callaway had 21 catches on 27 targets for 213 receiving yards and 42.3 fantasy points last season. However, he has been the talk of camp with both Thomas and Smith sidelined with injuries. Once Thomas returns, neither receiver will be worth a roster spot in standard size leagues. However, both Smith and Callaway are worth a late-round pick as a dart throw to start the year.
Tight Ends – Adam Trautman
Trautman is a popular fantasy sleeper, and with good reason. After letting Jared Cook leave in free agency, Trautman will take over as the starter. Over the past three seasons, the Saints have thrown an average of 9.3 touchdowns per season to their tight ends, with Cook scoring at least seven in each of the last two years. Furthermore, the Saints lack red zone weapons outside of Thomas and Kamara. Despite limited work last season, 20 percent of Trautman’s catches came in the red zone. With Cook out of the picture, expect Trautman to become the Saints’ go-to weapon inside the 20. Furthermore, with Thomas out six weeks or more to start the year, Trautman has a real chance to finish second on the team in catches this season.
Defense/Special Teams
Last season, the Saints finished as the D/ST7, averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game. They offered upside each week, scoring 14 or more fantasy points in six of their games. Furthermore, the Saints D/ST averaged just under three sacks and just over one interception per game. However, the Saints lost several players on defense in the offseason. The players lost this offseason include Sheldon Rankins, Malcom Brown, Trey Hendrickson, Janoris Jenkins, and Patrick Robinson. All five players were either starters or critical role players last season. With all the losses in the offseason, the Saints D/ST is no longer a plug-and-play option.
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