The New England Patriots enter 2021 as a new-look team. While a few faces are returning, newcomers such as Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, and Mac Jones add extra pizazz to the offense. Still, after finishing 7-9 with a poor showing from Cam Newton, it’s fair to have doubts about how this unit can perform from a fantasy perspective.
Make sure to check out all of our other 2021 Fantasy Football Previews.
Quarterbacks – Cam Newton, Mac Jones
Newton had a frustrating year under center, yet the Patriots still felt comfortable bringing him back for 2021. After all, he had a great start to the season before struggling after contracting COVID-19. From Weeks 1 to 3, he ranked as the QB7, putting him ahead of players like Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, and Deshaun Watson. Then, he acquired the virus in Week 4 and the team went on a bye in Week 5. Interestingly, while his quarterbacking on the field struggled post-COVID, he still put up QB12 numbers from Weeks 6 to 11. However, he dropped to QB28 from Weeks 12 to 16. Evidently, the bottom line here is that Newton’s rushing ability helped him, yet he still showed some inconsistencies. Plus, although he put up solid fantasy numbers from time to time, he failed to succeed under center. As such, he could be on a short leash heading into 2021, especially with the rookie waiting in the wings. With this in mind, Newton should only be drafted in leagues deeper than 14 teams or in superflex leagues. His rushing prowess—especially in the red zone—is huge, but he could still be on the bench by mid-season.
Jones, on the other hand, joins New England as a rookie and seems likely to open the year as Newton’s backup. Bill Belichick won’t rush the Alabama product into action, and there is no guarantee he starts a game this season. Further, while Newton has rushing ability, Jones lacks mobility. This hurts his fantasy value, especially in an offense without a true alpha wide receiver. On a more positive note, New England added a pair of top tight ends, which could give Jones a much-needed security blanket as he dips his toes into the NFL. Jones is valuable in dynasty but probably deserves to start the year on waivers in most redraft formats.
Running Backs – Damien Harris, Sony Michel, James White, Rhamondre Stevenson
Everybody who has played fantasy football for several years knows that the Patriots’ backfield is a fantasy nightmare on an annual basis. It’s hard to believe 2021 will bring a different story, but there is hope. This optimism comes in the form of Damien Harris, who burst onto the scene as a reliable leader in the New England backfield last year. From Week 4 through 13, the Alabama product ranked 18th among running backs (standard scoring), putting him ahead of players like D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, and James Conner. He then went down with an injury in Week 14, meaning we couldn’t see how he finished the year.
The biggest concerns around Harris? For starters, he is not a pass-catching threat. That stat above where he finished as the RB18 from Week 4 through 13 translates to RB25 in half-PPR and RB26 in full-PPR. He caught just five passes on seven targets last year. The other frustration is that Newton vultures a lot of goal-line touches. The signal-caller amassed 42 carries inside the red zone last year, which was 12 more than the next quarterback (Lamar Jackson). He also had plenty of success, logging nine touchdowns inside the five-yard line (first among all players in the NFL), 11 inside the 10 (third in NFL), and 12 inside the 20 (fourth in NFL). Still, the offense should improve and be more organized this year, leading to additional red-zone touches for Harris. This volume will only increase if Mac Jones takes over at quarterback. He’s worth drafting as a low-end RB2 in standard leagues and RB3 in half- or full-PPR formats.
Behind Harris is Michel, who saw touches in just eight games last year due to injury. He posted solid numbers when on the field (RB36 from Weeks 1 to 3 and RB26 from Weeks 13 to 17), but that’s only because most of his playing time came when Damien Harris was injured. Destined for the No. 2 role in 2021, Harris won’t become relevant unless Harris has to miss time. The Patriots’ decision to decline Michel’s fifth-year option further confirmed that he’s not part of the team’s future and doesn’t mesh with their offensive plans and vision.
On the other hand, James White is someone who has carved out a clear role with the New England franchise. An elite pass-catcher, White’s 49 catches ranked 10th among all running backs while his 375 receiving yards ranked eighth. Among all NFL players with zero starts, White ranked first in receptions and second in yards. Once a favorite target of Tom Brady, White will be best set up for success in an offense with Jones, who should check down early and often. The 29-year-old’s overall ADP of 165 in half-PPR formats ranks 53rd among all running backs. He’s an intriguing bench option in half- and full-PPR leagues due to his receiving ability, but you’re not drafting him with the intention to start him come Week 1.
The final piece to this backfield puzzle is Stevenson, a rookie. While he doesn’t have incredible draft capital and isn’t expected to compete for a top role, he might be a factor down near the goal line. Often compared to Legarrette Blount, Stevenson notched 193 touches for 1,478 yards and 13 touchdowns through 19 games at Oklahoma. He’s a physical specimen who will provide a change of pace while serving as a true weapon and wild card in the Patriots’ offense regardless of who quarterbacks the team. Stevenson isn’t a factor in redraft leagues right now, but he should absolutely be rostered in dynasty formats.
Wide Receivers – Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, N’Keal Harry
The Patriots made several splashes at the receiver position, with former Eagles and Raiders deep threat Nelson Agholor headlining the bunch. Through Weeks 4 through 16 last year, the Las Vegas wideout ranked as the WR17 while hauling in seven touchdown passes. Under the half-PPR format, he finished with at least 12.4 points in seven of those 12 weeks. Agholor received big money from New England for his impressive season in Vegas, though he might not have an instant impact if Cam Newton is the quarterback. Mac Jones is much better at moving the ball down the field, which is where Agholor fits best. Regardless, he is worth drafting in leagues with at least 12 teams (current ADP of 220; 72nd among wide receivers) and could surprise some folks in the second half of the season if New England makes a quarterback change.
Another receiver poised for a big year is Meyers, who formed an incredible rapport with Cam Newton to close out 2020. While Meyers did not haul in a touchdown pass, he did finish the year with 729 receiving yards. He even put up WR21 numbers from Weeks 8 to 17 in an offense that truly lacked production. Meyers has also impressed in training camp this year. No matter what the quarterback situation looks like, the 24-year-old should carve out a sizable role in 2021. While his ADP ranks 113th among wideouts, I wouldn’t blame you at all for drafting Meyers ahead of Agholor.
The dropoff after Meyers is concerning, with the disgruntled N’Keal Harry most likely the next man up. The former first-round pick requested a trade this past offseason but will play for New England even if not dealt. While the now-23-year-old finished with just 309 yards last year, he reportedly worked to improve his agility this offseason. Further, while hype during camp should be taken lightly, all signs indicate that Harry has impressed onlookers as practices get underway in Massachusetts. Harry should be rostered in most dynasty leagues, and he does have some upside if he can finally find his footing in 2021. However, snagging Harry in redraft leagues should generally be avoided.
One final factor in the passing game is Bourne, who had spent the past four years with the 49ers. He finished 2020 with a career-high 49 catches for 667 yards. He also caught a pair of touchdowns in the process. Now 26, Bourne finished last season as the WR60, which makes him a low-end No. 5 receiver in 12-team leagues. A lower finish should be expected in 2021 considering the crowded offense, but there is optimism entrenched in the fact that Belichick hand-picked Bourne himself out of the crop of free agents. Still, you can comfortably leave Bourne on waivers in most leagues.
Tight Ends – Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith
The Patriots gave huge paydays to both Henry and Smith this season, putting them among the four highest-paid tight ends in football. The addition of these two players could help the offense and rookie Mac Jones this year as they provide receiving and dump-off abilities in the paint game.
Henry, a former Charger, finished with just 613 yards and four touchdowns last year. However, he did miss two games. He checked in as the TE8 from Weeks 1 to 15 while averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game (sixth among tight ends who played in at least 14 games). Henry’s ADP of 126th ranks 13th among tight ends, which puts him just outside of the important top-12 ranking. At this price tag, you could potentially get Henry as your second tight end; that’s a really good bargain. He’s a valuable pick that could pay of in a huge way if he stays healthy.
Smith, meanwhile, departed the Titans this past offseason. He had an up-and-down 2020 campaign, finding himself in the medical tent too often. He ranked as the TE9 from Week 1 to 16. However, his 9.1 points per game during that time checked in sixth among tight ends. At just 25 years old, he provides a nice balance of youth and experience. After proving himself last year and fetching a big check in March, Smith is one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts. His current ADP of 134 ranks as the 17th tight end, which is outrageous. He’s going to thrive in the New England offense; don’t be surprised if he finishes top-12 in scoring among players at his position.
Defense/Special Teams
With a current ADP of 187, the Patriots’ defense ranks ninth in fantasy football. That’s too low. While the unit finished 11th in scoring last season, that was because the offense just couldn’t stay on the field. The defense forced turnovers in 15 games and recovered turnovers in 14. They also led the entire NFL with 18 interceptions as a team. Going forward, the Patriots will get Dont’a Hightower back following his opt-out. They also bolstered their defensive line and signed talented weapon Matthew Judon. It’s hard to see this defense regressing from last year. With new weapons and what is expected to a stronger offense, big things can be expected from this unit.
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