After a day off for all remaining teams Monday, the NBA is back tonight with a massive doubleheader. First, it’s game one of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Then, a winner takes all Game 7 between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets, with the winner advancing to play the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.
With the recent push being made by sports-books, it’s the perfect time to highlight the NBA prop bets that will help you cash out. There’s an overwhelming amount of available prop bets at most books, and new wagerers are bound to be overwhelmed by them. So let’s take a look at the best prop bets available for tonight and explain why they are good plays.
All lines used are from the Fanduel Sportsbook.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Bam Adebayo – Over 10.5 Rebounds (-104)
Kicking things off is Adebayo to go over 10.5 rebounds for the Heat. He enters this contest averaging 11.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs, up slightly from 10.2 in the regular season. Miami has played nine playoff games so far (8-1). In the nine games, Adebayo has gone over 10.5 rebounds five times. While that number doesn’t jump out as can’t miss, there’s more to it. In the four games he played over 35 minutes in, Adebayo grabbed 16 rebounds boards per contest. In this matchup with the Celtics, it’s safe to assume his minutes will be right in that range. Furthermore, Miami relies on him to do the heavy lifting cleaning the glass. Their second leading rebounder in the playoffs is Jae Crowder, who comes in averaging 6.2 per game.
Jaylen Brown – Over 6.5 Rebounds (-124)
Yes, another rebound total taking the over. This time, though, it’s on the Celtics side of the ball. Brown may be a wing player, but he certainly doesn’t mind battling inside for rebounds when he’s asked to. Against the Raptors, Brown had a 16 rebound game and a 12 rebound game. He also had two eight rebound nights, leading the way to his 8.7 rebounds per contest in the seven-game series. The Celtics are relying on Brown and Jayson Tatum to help on the class in the playoffs, and there’s no reason that will change moving forward.
Tyler Herro – Over 2.5 Made Threes (+154)
The final prop bet for the opening game offers the friendliest line of the three. Herro is +154 to make three three-point field goals, something he has done in four of the last five Heat games. Overall for the playoffs, he has gone over 2.5 in six of nine games. Oddly, all six of those overs were exactly three made three point shots. An adjusted line is tempting because of that, as one would assume he’s due for a bigger night than just three makes from deep. It’s worth considering, but remember the Heat have had some time off from game action. Herro is an incredible shooter, so over 2.5 is great at +154, no reason to get greedy.
Nuggets Vs Clippers
Paul Millsap – Over 8.5 Points (-120)
Millsap isn’t what he used to be, but 8.5 is just to low for his scoring total in this game. While he did struggle in the opening round, averaging 6.9 points per game, he has played much better in round two. This series he’s shooting the ball much better, leading to 10.5 points per game scoring average. Millsap is playing 24.7 minutes per game this series, meaning he will have ample floor time to come across an open shot or two. The Nuggets have also shown they will go to him in the post if opponents put a smaller defender on him, and it tends to work well for Millsap’s team.
Kawhi Leonard – Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds (-113)
Leonard is averaging 26 points and nine rebounds per game this series, making a combined total of 35. The decision to roll with Leonard here has a lot to do with knowing what type of player he is. He can dominate the game in all areas, and that’s what is expected out of him tonight. It’s win or go home, so expect him to be aggressive from the start. He has teammates he can rely on to help guard the opponent’s best player for stretches, but that luxury isn’t the same on the glass or offensive end. Look for Leonard to assert himself early and often, ensuring the Clippers don’t fall behind early. This line could also be taken as just an over on his scoring, or even his points rebounds, and assists combined, and I still like it. Bet on the reigning finals MVP to dominate game seven.
Patrick Beverley – Under 2.5 Assists (+116)
Seems low for a point guard to take under 2.5 assists, but Beverley is not your typical point guard. Throughout the season he is tasked with limited offensive responsibilities, which is smart. The Clippers have players who are much better at getting the offense going somewhere than he is. That’s why the under is the play here. Beverley will be asked to hound Jamal Murray when he’s on the floor, not initiate the offense or exert himself on that end. It’s possible Beverley makes the extra pass on multiple occasions and that leads to this going over, but it seems pretty unlikely. He has played 116 minutes in this series and totaled 12 total assists. In Game 7, expect the ball to be in the hands of Leonard, Paul George, and Lou Williams even more.
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