Shaun Evans | November 27th, 2019
The day before Thanksgiving is always a wonderful stacked day of NBA DFS and we are in store for an amazing 14 game slate on Draftkings! The ownership will be spread out as there are many routes to go. The value plays will be slimmed out and the top plays will be slightly difficult to pinpoint. So let’s get into the research and see where we should pay up at and where we should pay down at! Good luck and cash out!
Top Pay Ups
James Harden vs Miami Heat ($11,800)
There are two players that you should really never fade on any slate and they are both on this massive one tonight. We’ll start out with Harden who gets to face a difficult Miami Heat defense which should gain him low ownership. Miami is allowing the fewest points to the point guard position with 41.58 points per game while allowing them to average 18 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Miami plays at a slightly slower pace than the Rockets with 104 possessions while they average 108 per game.
Harden has continued his performance dominance even with the addition of Russell Westbrook as he is averaging 1.69 fantasy points per minute. He is also holding a usage rating of 38% while averaging 37 minutes. He has had two big performances back to back with 71 fantasy points versus the Los Angeles Clippers and 61.25 fantasy points versus the Dallas Mavericks. With a difficult matchup on paper, Harden should see lower ownership on this 14 game slate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs Atlanta Hawks ($12,400)
The second player that you can’t fade on any slate (I know, you can’t pair both Harden and Antetokounmpo tonight unless you’re rostering bench warmers) is the Greek Freak. He has the perfect opportunity to dominate his value once again versus the Atlanta Hawks. Antetokounmpo is averaging 33 minutes per game while holding a usage rate of 36%. He’s averaging almost 2 fantasy points per minute with 1.94.
We already know about the young and gunning Atlanta Hawks but against opposing forwards, they are struggling. They are currently giving up the most fantasy points to the position with 49.38 per game while allowing them to average 23 points, eight rebounds and four assist. With Trae Young being their main go-to shooter to keep them in the game, Giannis and the Bucks could easily pull away tonight.
Andre Drummond vs Charlotte Hornets ($9,400)
Another great match up is centers versus the Charlotte Hornets which calls for a nice price tag on Drummond. He’s currently averaging 49.3 fantasy points per game with a usage rating of 24%. He’s averaging a monster double-double so far this season with 18 points, 17 rebounds, and three assists per game on 34 minutes of court time. He has dropped below 40 fantasy points twice in the past five games but with this matchup versus the Hornets tonight, he should bounce back to exceeding value.
The Hornets are currently ranked third in most fantasy points allowed to opposing centers with 60.20 per game. They are also giving up massive real points and rebounds per game with 24 points and 17 rebounds. We are in store for a slower paced game though as both teams average 104 possessions per game. Drummond easily pairs well with either Harden or Antetokounmpo tonight which should help you reach the cash lines that we have been seeing lately.
Top Value Plays
Bruce Brown Jr. vs Charlotte Hornets ($5,100)
Sticking in the same game of the Detroit Pistons versus the Charlotte Hornets, Brown Jr. provides a nice salary relief plus value with his recent play. He’s currently averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game with a usage rating of 16% while playing around the 27 minute mark. Just like the center position, the Hornets are also not great at stopping opposing guards.
So far on the season, the Charlotte Hornets are allowing opposing guards to average 23 points, five rebounds, and four assists per game. They are also giving up 42.31 fantasy points to the position. The pace of this game is already known and it’ll be on the slower end while the entire game has a point total of 215 points.
Kyle Kuzma vs New Orleans Pelicans ($4,500)
Kuzma has slowly been getting back into the groove of things and has been a little underwhelming so far since his return. Kuzma and the Los Angeles Lakers have a great matchup tonight versus the Pelicans though and he may finally be able to exceed that value. In his past three games, Kuzma has recorded 16.5, 13.75, and 16.25 fantasy points while averaging 25 minutes. He is averaging .81 fantasy points per minute with a usage rating of 23%.
On the defensive end of the court, the New Orleans Pelicans are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points with 46.62. They are allowing opposing forwards to average close to a double-double with 24 points, nine rebounds and four assists per game. The one “shocker” of this game is that the Pelicans do play at a much fast pace with 109 possessions per game while the Lakers average 104. This is a great spot for Kuzma as it screams pace up and a nice match up with a weak defense.
Kris Dunn vs Golden State Warriors ($3,900)
Dunn has been far from good and even decent but with the Chicago Bulls facing the G-League Warriors tonight, $3,900 is a risky play to take. Dunn has been a horrible flop in his past two games, recording 5.75 and 7.5 fantasy points. The three games before those bad performances, Dunn did record 35, 20.75, and 25.25 fantasy points while averaging 22 minutes per game. He is averaging six points, three rebounds and three assists per game with a usage rate of 16% so far this season.
We already know the Golden State Warriors are horrendous this season due to all of their injuries and it’s showing at every position. They are currently allowing opposing guards to average 26 points, eight assists and seven rebounds per game while giving up 50.91 fantasy points. This game does have a decent point total of 217 points while both teams are averaging 105 possessions per game. If the Bulls are able to get an early lead, Dunn should see an increase in minutes which would help him exceed his low-value tonight.
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