Brandon Braasch | September 9th, 2019
The first weekend of football has been crazy. We started off with a slug-fest on Thursday Night, with the Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears. Then came the early game Sunday slate, which was wild and resulted in the Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, and Kansas City Chiefs all putting up 40+ points. The afternoon games even gave us a tie, when the Arizona Cardinals came back to force OT vs the Detroit Lions. Who knows what Monday’s games will bring us? Let’s see how the two Monday Night game slate looks from a DFS perspective:
Stacks
Drew Brees, QB NO ($6,200 DK and $8,300 FD)
Michael Thomas, WR NO ($8,000 DK and $8,500 FD)
If you are going to go with the stack method, use Brees and Thomas. These two have been one of the best QB/WR combos over the last couple of years. Their chemistry is great and this game will end up being a shootout. If you remember last year, the Saints first game was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and that game was a shootout, ending in a final score of 48-40.
Royce Freeman, RB DEN ($4,300 DK and $5,900 FD)
Noah Fant, TE DEN ($3,000 DK and $5,100 DK)
Denver Broncos DST ($3,500 DK and $4,800 FD)
This is a stack you don’t really see all that often, but defense, running the football, and play-action passes go hand-in-hand. The Denver Broncos new head coach, Vic Fangio will look to do exactly that. The Broncos offensive game plan is going to be running the football and using this to open the play-action pass. I believe Royce Freeman will end up being the featured back, especially against the Oakland Raiders who have a poor rushing defense.
When the Broncos get the running game going, they will be able to do some play-action passes. Joe Flacco loves throwing the ball to his tight ends, so when the linebackers come up to stop the run, Fant will be wide open shredding the defense all night in the middle of the field.
Running the football and sustaining long drives will keep the defense fresh. This will allow the Broncos front seven to feast on the Raiders. They won’t have to worry about double-teaming Antonio Brown, so Denver’s defense will be like the Running of the Bulls, going right after Derek Carr resulting in sacks and turnovers.
Value Plays
Darren Waller ($3,400 DK and $5,400 FD)
The Raiders offense is going to struggle. They just lost their best offensive weapon. Their offensive line isn’t the best. They have a rookie running back in Josh Jacobs. They do, however still have Derek Carr who is good, but not great. Carr did have a good connection with Jared Cook last year, but since he moved on to New Orleans, Carr will have to turn to Waller. Tight ends are quarterback’s best friends. They are always there when no one else is. Look for Carr to turn to Waller when he can’t find anyone else to get the ball to.
Will Fuller ($5,300 DK and $6,100 FD)
Unfortunately, 2018 ended early for Fuller. Fuller and Deshaun Watson started off hot right out of the gate last year. They connected on a touchdown in each of the first three games. They will start off hot this year as well, especially going up against the Saints defense who has shown they are prone to giving up deep balls
Players to Avoid
Carlos Hyde ($3,900 DK and $5,800 FD)
The Texans recent addition is going to struggle in his first game. The Saints defense is best known for stopping the run. Hyde wasn’t really a great option in DFS last year either. Unless he is able to pick up a couple rushing touchdowns, he will lay an egg. I would look elsewhere for your running back in this slate.
Courtland Sutton ($4,500 DK and $5,900 FD)
Emmanuel Sanders($5,500 DK and $5,700 FD)
I wouldn’t rely on the Broncos wide receiving core in this game. With an aging Flacco at quarterback, the Broncos will use their running backs to keep the defense off the field. The chemistry with a new quarterback the first couple weeks of the season just won’t be there. There are plenty of other wide receivers that will impact your team a lot more than Sutton and Sanders.
Game Predictions
Texans vs Saints
I can’t see a scenario where this game doesn’t end up in a shootout. The defenses aren’t that great and these offenses have superstars. This will be a back and forth game throughout all four quarters. Drew Brees will throw two touchdowns to Michael Thomas and Will Fuller will catch six passes for 112 yards and one touchdown. Final score Saints win 38-30.
Broncos vs Raiders
This game features two teams with mediocre offenses. This will be a low scoring game without many explosive plays. Royce Freeman runs for 94 yards and one touchdown. Darren Waller and Noah Fant each grab a touchdown. Final score Broncos win 17-13.
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