The Wild Card round of playoffs continues with all 16 playoff teams in action today. Here we have the St. Louis Cardinals, who fell two games short of playing the whole 60 because of COVID-19 cases, facing off against the San, or “Slam”, Diego Padres. The Cardinals are the fifth seed (clinched on the last day) and the Padres are the fourth seed. This is a best-of-three series which starts with Game 1 on Wednesday at 5:08 P.M. est. The series takes place at Petco Park in San Diego.
During the regular season, the Padres were one of the hottest teams and earned the nickname Slam Diego by hitting a grand slam in four straight games, a major league record. Their 21-11 record at Petco Park was the seventh-best home record in the league and will be very comfortable playing these games there. They went 37-23 overall.
The Cardinals had an up-and-down season while having to play several doubleheaders down the stretch. They were out of commission for 17 days due to COVID. In nine-inning games, they went just 17-18 and 30-28 overall (16-15 on the road). As far as this series, it could certainly go the full three games. The last two times the Padres made the postseason – 2005 and 2006 – they ran into the Cardinals. They lost both times – in the Division Series – and also lost to them in the 1996 NLDS.
The Padres surprisingly announced Chris Paddack as their Game 1 starter yesterday. They are yet to announce the others to follow. Paddack starting is worrisome to the health of Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, who sustained arm injuries late in the season. But they are likely just getting pushed back to get fresh. More on that later.
Three keys to victory for the St. Louis Cardinals
Hitting with RISP
Part of the team’s offensive woes may have had to do with fatigue due to the number of games they played in a limited number of days. But they had a .234 team batting average with six players hitting .220 or below. They were able to get on base with a 14th ranked .323 on-base percentage. But they weren’t able to drive many of those runners in. The Cardinals also couldn’t drive the ball at the plate as they ranked 27th in the league with a .371 slugging percentage. Now that they are back on normal rest, they may be able to hit better. Their offense starts with Paul Goldschmidt who led the team offensively, batting .304/.417/.466 with six homers and 21 RBI. Other guys like Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, and rookie Dylan Carlson will have to show out for them to have a shot.
Starters keep the games close
The Cardinals announced Kwang Hyun Kim as the Game 1 starter with Adam Wainwright – and all his postseason experience – taking the ball in Game 2 on Thursday. If necessary, Jack Flaherty – who has regressed from his 2019 dominance – will be on the mound for Game 3 on Friday. For them to advance to the next round, their pitching will have to hold up against a very explosive and young Padres lineup. Kim has been the team’s best starter this season, even when he didn’t start out in the rotation. After closing out the Cardinals’ Opening Day game, he made seven starts and held a 1.62 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, and 5.5 strikeouts per nine over 39 innings. His low-90s fastball has eluded a stellar .182 batting average against.
Wainwright brings a ton of postseason prowess to Game 2 as he has made 27 appearances under the big lights; 14 of those were starts. He holds a 4-5 record with a 2.81 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, and 115 strikeouts over 105.2 innings in those appearances. Setting him up for Game 2 makes sense as he will bring that experience to an elimination game. The 39-year-old right-hander has had a good season as well. Over 65.2 innings in 10 starts this season, he went 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9. Flaherty struggled with a 4.91 ERA over nine starts and 40.1 innings but he showed flashes over his last two starts. If the rotation struggles against a tough lineup, they have a strong bullpen to turn to. If these arms can put in solid starts and limit the damage, the offense will have a shot to explode and pull this one out.
Bullpen stays dominant
If the rotation does falter, however, they have a solid bullpen to turn to. Even without lethal closer Jordan Hicks, who opted out of the season, the relievers have been very good. Alex Reyes was one of the breakouts out of the bullpen this season. He had a 3.00 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and a 32.1% strikeout rate. He did walk batters at a 16.7% rate as well, though, so that will have to be cleaned up in the playoffs. Andrew Miller has put up a 2.57 FIP over an obviously small sample. He will look to sustain those numbers in any inning he is asked to pitch in during the postseason. Genesis Cabrera has been important with a 2.57 ERA and a 33.7% strikeout rate but his 4.76 FIP and 15.7% walk rate are worrisome. But with a small sample size, those numbers aren’t as worrisome as they would be in a normal season. Giovanny Gallegos pitched 15 innings over 16 appearances while holding a 2.06 FIP and 0.867 WHIP. He also struck out batters at a 13 K/9 rate. St. Louis will have to close out games to have a shot.
Three keys to victory for the San Diego Padres
Top two starters are healthy
As mentioned in the introduction, the status of Dinelson Lamet and trade acquisition Mike Clevinger is still up in the air for the series. Lamet left his start on Friday with right biceps tightness, while Clevinger received a cortisone injection for a right-elbow impingement the same day. Lamet is a legitimate Cy Young candidate while Clevinger was pitching great since coming over in the big trade from Cleveland. If one or both is unable to go in the series, the tides turn dramatically in the Cardinals’ favor. They are a sleeping giant at the plate and could erupt against a lower-tier pitcher. But even then, the Padres have the offense that can roll with the punches.
Padres SP Mike Clevinger is unlikely to pitch in the wild card series — and perhaps the rest of the playoffs — after a Tuesday bullpen session didn't resolve questions about his short- and long-term arm health, sources tell me and @JesseRogersESPN. Significant concerns persist.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 30, 2020
Slam Diego, not Lame Diego
While the Padres were the hottest offense in all of baseball from late August to early September, they had a cold final two weeks. Besides three straight victories over the Giants to end the season, they struggled mightily. They posted an abysmal .219/.296/.384 slash line with an 85 wRC+ (18th in MLB) over that time. If they can return to the form that earned them the Slam Diego nickname, they should have no problem rolling right through the Cardinals. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., two MVP candidates, is where their offense starts. If the MVPs perform like MVPs they will be a juggernaut. After those two, they have guys like Rookie of the Year candidate Jake Cronenworth, Eric Hosmer, and Trent Grisham who can do damage.
Bullpen is dominant
This series could ultimately come down to the bullpens as it is a big key for both teams. Just like the Cardinals, the Padres’ bullpen has been very dominant this season. The Padres bullpen has probably been more dominant, especially since mid-August when they have had the best bullpen in baseball. That was around the time that they lost closer Kirby Yates for the season after he suffered elbow inflammation that required surgery. The Padres bolstered their bullpen following losing Yates by adding Drew Pomeranz and Trevor Rosenthal at the trade deadline. Both of them have anchored the back end of the ‘pen in a huge way. Pomeranz made eight appearances following the trade and surrendered three runs over 7.2 innings. He struck out 14 and walked six. Rosenthal also made eight appearances while picking up four saves and surrendering just two hits, one walk, and one unearned run over nine innings. He struck out 15 batters.
Analysis
This is an intriguing series and comes down to which version of each team shows up. It also comes down to the health of the Padres’ aces. If the Padres’ lineup returns to Slam Diego form, it is hard to go against them no matter what pitching the Cardinals give. Maybe prime Wainwright will show up in Game 2 and shut them down no matter how they looked in Game 1. But if they get hot, they will be hard to cool off. If either Lamet or Clevinger can’t go in Game 2, the Cardinals could breakout and look more like they did in 2019. Let’s just say this series will either be a San Diego sweep or it will go to a Game 3 where it could obviously go either way. The Cardinals don’t have the team to win two straight against the Padres so their only chance to win is in three games.
This prediction banks on Lamet and Clevinger being good to go. Clevinger would probably start Game 2 with Lamet going with a potential Game 3, if necessary. It would be in the Padres best interest to win Game 1 so they don’t have to worry about whether or not one of them will get the ball in an elimination game for Game 2. Not that it isn’t already in their best interest. It is just more heightened with the question marks.
Prediction: San Diego Padres 2, St. Louis Cardinals 1
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